Norman Potting
Well-known member
Much to my surprise had no difficulty in booking for eldest Potting's vaccinations yesterday evening - Sunday week at a nice easily accessible rural location.
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[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
colonies man
New member
- Jul 30, 2011
- 488
Had my second jab yesterday here in Oz and booked a flight to the UK for July 24th.Can't wait.
Andrew L. Croxford [MENTION=11994]Andrew[/MENTION]_croxford
SAR now at ~30% higher for delta, down from 67%. And a large chunk of even the 30% is immune escape. Yes indeed, this number is fluid and not ideal for comparing transmissibility of variants… at least not in isolation.
out of 60624 cases of Indian variant case 73 deaths
3470 visits to hospital with 488 resulting in admission and 806 potential cases in hospital with something else.
Vaccines holding up!
SAR now at ~30% higher for delta, down from 67%. And a large chunk of even the 30% is immune escape. Yes indeed, this number is fluid and not ideal for comparing transmissibility of variants… at least not in isolation.
out of 60624 cases of Indian variant case 73 deaths
3470 visits to hospital with 488 resulting in admission and 806 potential cases in hospital with something else.
Vaccines holding up!
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1405858264999501827?s=21
Zoë COVID study shows rates slowing down for the last few days which is good news. The key is in these two graphs showing the power of even partial vaccination and the age effects - with signs that the youth epidemic is running out of steam. Thx for logging
Zoë COVID study shows rates slowing down for the last few days which is good news. The key is in these two graphs showing the power of even partial vaccination and the age effects - with signs that the youth epidemic is running out of steam. Thx for logging
Soton Seagull
Well-known member
Hopefully this works - ONS reporting/estimating over 85% of England now has antibodies. Very good news.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...d1ad9a6f777a32b63bc266&pinned_post_type=share
Also deaths last week lowest since August
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...d1ad9a6f777a32b63bc266&pinned_post_type=share
Also deaths last week lowest since August
Cases going up and up and up, and now hospitalisations and deaths are rising too - oh dear! Pfft...whilst all of that's true here's why it doesn't matter.
I've re-pulled some data looking at the effective death rate in the UK, by linking rolling daily cases with rolling daily deaths, the latter offset by two weeks for hopefully obvious reasons. Here's what that looks like:
So what does that tell us? In effect, back in early Jan when rolling daily cases peaked to over 60,000 approximately 2.5% of those cases would sadly go on to die, resulting in around 1,500 deaths a couple of weeks later. We're now down to a figure of 0.16% thanks to the power of vaccinations, although given that figure is effectively two weeks out of date it's likely we're even lower.
In effect, the current death rate is between 15 and 20 times lower than where it was in January. Now, those 60,000 cases would result in roughly between 60 and 100 deaths - not 1,500. To put it another way, to get back to the same kind of level of death as we saw in January we would need to be seeing over a million daily cases. And all that's as of now. The death rate is consistently declining.
I'm not an expert, but I have a reasonable background in interpreting data - my advice is not to obsess too much about case rates anymore. Cases will continue to rise and it may be a while before we see the same kind of almost-zero Covid the likes of Israel are currently enjoying, but this illness is hardly killing anyone in this country anymore. We might as well start publishing daily cases for the common cold. We shouldn't fear big numbers when they have little statistical significance.
I've re-pulled some data looking at the effective death rate in the UK, by linking rolling daily cases with rolling daily deaths, the latter offset by two weeks for hopefully obvious reasons. Here's what that looks like:
So what does that tell us? In effect, back in early Jan when rolling daily cases peaked to over 60,000 approximately 2.5% of those cases would sadly go on to die, resulting in around 1,500 deaths a couple of weeks later. We're now down to a figure of 0.16% thanks to the power of vaccinations, although given that figure is effectively two weeks out of date it's likely we're even lower.
In effect, the current death rate is between 15 and 20 times lower than where it was in January. Now, those 60,000 cases would result in roughly between 60 and 100 deaths - not 1,500. To put it another way, to get back to the same kind of level of death as we saw in January we would need to be seeing over a million daily cases. And all that's as of now. The death rate is consistently declining.
I'm not an expert, but I have a reasonable background in interpreting data - my advice is not to obsess too much about case rates anymore. Cases will continue to rise and it may be a while before we see the same kind of almost-zero Covid the likes of Israel are currently enjoying, but this illness is hardly killing anyone in this country anymore. We might as well start publishing daily cases for the common cold. We shouldn't fear big numbers when they have little statistical significance.
Good work…..completely agree.
-most cases are in the unvaccinated (of which most are young and not vulnerable)
-those going into hospital now are also a higher proportion of young and not vulnerable……so they don’t get as seriously ill, and recover more quickly (length of hospital stay on average is also falling apparently)
-treatment has also improved dramatically
The MSM are still churning out % numbers……but the current increases are on small numbers. As a % of where we were a few months ago they’re still very small numbers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/22/flu-pneumonia-deaths-now-ten-times-higher-covid/
Extract :
The number of people dying with flu and pneumonia on their death certificate in England and Wales is now 10 times higher than those with Covid, figures show.
The latest weekly data on deaths from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that there were 84 deaths mentioning Covid in the week ending June 11. There were 1,163 involving flu and pneumonia.
Registered Covid deaths fell by 14 per cent since the last update, in the week ending June 4, when 98 deaths were recorded.
Covid deaths now make up just 0.8 per cent of all deaths – down from 1.3 per cent in the previous week, despite the fact that week included the late May bank holiday, meaning there were fewer death registrations.
The latest figure of 84 deaths is only the third time the weekly total has dipped below 100 since last September and is one of the lowest since the pandemic began. In the most recent week, there were just 66 deaths where Covid was the primary cause, compared to 292 for flu and pneumonia.
The figures are much lower than would usually be expected for respiratory disease at this time of year. The five-year average for deaths involving flu and pneumonia in the same week is 1,704.
And then………
Newcastle upon Tyne has had England's biggest week-on-week case rise, up from 116.6 to 236.4 per 100,000. But the city's director of public health, Prof Eugene Milne, said almost two thirds of the new cases were among largely unvaccinated under-25s and it was not resulting in problems for the NHS.
"Only 1.4 per cent of cases in Newcastle are among the more vulnerable over-65s and, critically, these rising infection rates are not resulting in any rapid increase in hospitalisations," he said.
"It was always to be expected that, as restrictions began to ease, infection rates would begin to rise as the virus was presented with further opportunities to spread. Thankfully, we are seeing early signs that vaccines are successfully breaking the chain between infection and serious illness."
Extract :
The number of people dying with flu and pneumonia on their death certificate in England and Wales is now 10 times higher than those with Covid, figures show.
The latest weekly data on deaths from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that there were 84 deaths mentioning Covid in the week ending June 11. There were 1,163 involving flu and pneumonia.
Registered Covid deaths fell by 14 per cent since the last update, in the week ending June 4, when 98 deaths were recorded.
Covid deaths now make up just 0.8 per cent of all deaths – down from 1.3 per cent in the previous week, despite the fact that week included the late May bank holiday, meaning there were fewer death registrations.
The latest figure of 84 deaths is only the third time the weekly total has dipped below 100 since last September and is one of the lowest since the pandemic began. In the most recent week, there were just 66 deaths where Covid was the primary cause, compared to 292 for flu and pneumonia.
The figures are much lower than would usually be expected for respiratory disease at this time of year. The five-year average for deaths involving flu and pneumonia in the same week is 1,704.
And then………
Newcastle upon Tyne has had England's biggest week-on-week case rise, up from 116.6 to 236.4 per 100,000. But the city's director of public health, Prof Eugene Milne, said almost two thirds of the new cases were among largely unvaccinated under-25s and it was not resulting in problems for the NHS.
"Only 1.4 per cent of cases in Newcastle are among the more vulnerable over-65s and, critically, these rising infection rates are not resulting in any rapid increase in hospitalisations," he said.
"It was always to be expected that, as restrictions began to ease, infection rates would begin to rise as the virus was presented with further opportunities to spread. Thankfully, we are seeing early signs that vaccines are successfully breaking the chain between infection and serious illness."
Being reported today that Covid antibody rates are more than 50 per cent higher than roadmap predictions
Eight in 10 people over the age of 16 now have a level of immunity against coronavirus, ONS figures show. Antibody rates are now more than 50 per cent higher than epidemiologists predicted they would be when they published models which informed the Covid roadmap.
In February, Imperial College warned that only 44.6 per cent of the population would be protected by the original lockdown release day of June 21.
But the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that eight in 10 people over the age of 16 now have antibodies to Covid.
Eight in 10 people over the age of 16 now have a level of immunity against coronavirus, ONS figures show. Antibody rates are now more than 50 per cent higher than epidemiologists predicted they would be when they published models which informed the Covid roadmap.
In February, Imperial College warned that only 44.6 per cent of the population would be protected by the original lockdown release day of June 21.
But the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that eight in 10 people over the age of 16 now have antibodies to Covid.
Now this may be a silly question and I’m certainly not looking to be negative, not at all, but how do they know that 8 in 10 have antibodies?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
wehatepalace
Limbs
They’ve been doing sample antibody testing right from the start.
Curious Orange
Punxsatawney Phil
Correct, I was part of Imperial's ongoing study last year.
It’s an extrapolation from a sample (controlled, so will be pretty accurate) - as others have pointed out sampling has been happening throughout the pandemic.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Likewise
BBC SE news, updated figures just released.
In the entire SE region, just 18 hospital patients with Covid, 3 of whom are on ventilators. That includes all hospital trust covering all the way over to Chichester.
Population 4.645m.
In the entire SE region, just 18 hospital patients with Covid, 3 of whom are on ventilators. That includes all hospital trust covering all the way over to Chichester.
Population 4.645m.
Postman Pat
Well-known member
The drop in average age of positive test is stunning.
Lots of useful stats here https://data.spectator.co.uk/
Lots of useful stats here https://data.spectator.co.uk/
https://twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1408349665624461318?s=24
Vaccines work better against the Delta variant than Alpha
Vaccines work better against the Delta variant than Alpha