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The Vaccine Thread
- Thread starter Mellotron
- Start date
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,374
I am a bit cynical tbh, having had the Oxford jab on the day this news is released. There's just no proof yet that it does, there's a hope or best guess, but no proof. I actually don't understand why so long after the initial intro, they still havn't published official data on the elderly, as many nations ban it in that demographic..... They still say they "believe it works" by looking at antibodies in peoples bodies, where all the others have proven peer reviewed data.
Moderna, Novavax and J&J have all published data that whilst efficacy is reduced by around 20-30%, they do still offer protections against mild/moderate disease. Novavax from 89 Chinese/UK variant to 60 SA variant is still good.
This is a big deal imho, for a government that only has Oxford right now virtually guaranteed and Pfizer based in Belgium with potential export issues, Its also been given so widely, that I cant help look at this and think this is narrative trying to soften what is pretty awful data, that its not as effective as others, against what I deduce will become the dominant strain this summer.
Im not a scientist by any means, but it just seems logical that the Chinese variant and Kent variant R numbers will soon drop below 1 as those versions come up against an increasing sized wall of natural antibody and vaccinated people in their tens of millions, whereas the SA variant is going to come up against a vaccine that doesnt properly protect against it and therefore it has far more people it can infect and its R number may stay above 1, even more so as lockdowns are lifted.
This is damage limitation PR, for what is really not good news, in the absence of hard data. Of course Oxford is better than nowt, but they need to get the SA variant data asap and vaccine inclusion quick sharp too, to control its R. The cat is already out of the bag, Pandorras box opened and SA variant here and will spread to be dominant soon imho
fwiw, whilst SA obvs has a large % of BAME citizens, and covid disproportionally affects the black community, it was worrying to read that even during their summer, vast swathes of healthy young kids were getting hospitalised with this variant.......... maybe some local factors in that, but doesnt look to be so benign with kids as original strains.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,322
they do know from the studies that no subjects ad severe symptoms or hospitalisation. they wouldnt say so otherwise, they are super cautious about conclusions and statements made, often underplaying results. its very difficult to have focused studies on demographics that are being cautious and less likely to be exposed virus. checking that older people have the same antibodies is sufficient, as that is what does the job and means the vaccine has worked. i haven't seen anything from other studies other than they have larger numbers of over 60's in their studies and therefore infer better efficacy, there's been no dedicated over 60 only trials. likewise its very difficult to run a trail against a particular variant in isolation, unless doing challenge trials.
I am a bit cynical tbh, having had the Oxford jab on the day this news is released. There's just no proof yet that it does, there's a hope or best guess, but no proof. I actually don't understand why so long after the initial intro, they still havn't published official data on the elderly, as many nations ban it in that demographic..... They still say they "believe it works" by looking at antibodies in peoples bodies, where all the others have proven peer reviewed data.
Moderna, Novavax and J&J have all published data that whilst efficacy is reduced by around 20-30%, they do still offer protections against mild/moderate disease. Novavax from 89 Chinese/UK variant to 60 SA variant is still good.
This is a big deal imho, for a government that only has Oxford right now virtually guaranteed and Pfizer based in Belgium with potential export issues, Its also been given so widely, that I cant help look at this and think this is narrative trying to soften what is pretty awful data, that its not as effective as others, against what I deduce will become the dominant strain this summer.
Im not a scientist by any means, but it just seems logical that the Chinese variant and Kent variant R numbers will soon drop below 1 as those versions come up against an increasing sized wall of natural antibody and vaccinated people in their tens of millions, whereas the SA variant is going to come up against a vaccine that doesnt properly protect against it and therefore it has far more people it can infect and its R number may stay above 1, even more so as lockdowns are lifted.
This is damage limitation PR, for what is really not good news, in the absence of hard data. Of course Oxford is better than nowt, but they need to get the SA variant data asap and vaccine inclusion quick sharp too, to control its R. The cat is already out of the bag, Pandorras box opened and SA variant here and will spread to be dominant soon imho
fwiw, whilst SA obvs has a large % of BAME citizens, and covid disproportionally affects the black community, it was worrying to read that even during their summer, vast swathes of healthy young kids were getting hospitalised with this variant.......... maybe some local factors in that, but doesnt look to be so benign with kids as original strains.
Agreed.
As a 72 year old who had the AstraZeneca jab yesterday, my heart did sink somewhat when I heard this.
I hope I am being ‘over sensitive’.
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
What is WRONG with this woman?
Still does not accept the full blame, trying to pass it on to suppliers.
I think Ma'am, that the lesson has already been learnt.
Still does not accept the full blame, trying to pass it on to suppliers.
I think Ma'am, that the lesson has already been learnt.
The study on the efficacy of the AZ/O vaccine against the SA variant was quite small (only 2,000 people) - far more research is needed to get a clear conclusion
This won't be the last serious variant - they will emerge all the time so we need to get used to this kind of news
The scientists are already working in tweaks to the vaccine to better counter new variants as they ate identified - that will be ongoing
The study explicitly reports that the vaccine 'is less effective at preventing mild or moderate illness' - there's no evidence that it's not preventing serious illness (the contrary appears to be the case - ie it does prevent death/serious illness)
I don't think there is a 'PR aspect to this at all - it's just the research and situation is changing all time and the scientists are trying to keep up with it
Facts seem to be that having the vaccine will almost certainly prevent people from getting seriously ill, needing hospital or dying. The efficacy of the vaccine will be improved (by the Autumn according to reports) so when annual boosters are administered they'll be more effective - in the meantime we'll have stopped the vast majority of people getting seriously ill. I'll happily take the AZ/O jab when I'm called up.
This won't be the last serious variant - they will emerge all the time so we need to get used to this kind of news
The scientists are already working in tweaks to the vaccine to better counter new variants as they ate identified - that will be ongoing
The study explicitly reports that the vaccine 'is less effective at preventing mild or moderate illness' - there's no evidence that it's not preventing serious illness (the contrary appears to be the case - ie it does prevent death/serious illness)
I don't think there is a 'PR aspect to this at all - it's just the research and situation is changing all time and the scientists are trying to keep up with it
Facts seem to be that having the vaccine will almost certainly prevent people from getting seriously ill, needing hospital or dying. The efficacy of the vaccine will be improved (by the Autumn according to reports) so when annual boosters are administered they'll be more effective - in the meantime we'll have stopped the vast majority of people getting seriously ill. I'll happily take the AZ/O jab when I'm called up.
nicko31
Well-known member
Seems pretty honest to where they've gone wrong. They screwed up and will be behind for a while
Just imagine if Johnson took some responsibility for the highest death rate of any major nation on earth
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
That 19% covers a huge proportion of those likely to end up in hospital if they'd caught it....................................brilliant news.
RossyG
Well-known member
- Dec 20, 2014
- 2,630
This one is like COVID whack-a-mole.
Someone trying to take a swipe at the evil Tories will claim this.
Others will point out that it’s not the highest, that the British definition of COVID death is a lot more loose and inclusive than many other countries, that factors like population density and obesity rates come into play, that it won’t be until the dust settles that we’ll have an idea as to who really was hardest hit.
And then a few days later, up it pops again.
Ps. Not sure why my iPad automatically converts COVID to uppercase, but it does, so there.
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Lyndhurst 14
Well-known member
- Jan 16, 2008
- 5,132
This was probably posted originally by an anti vaxxer. But there is some truth in it. They haven't come up with a completely effective vaccine for the flu, they have come up with a vaccine which is very effective against the flu for about 40% (average) of the people it is given to (CDC figures) but still has to be tweaked every year to account for variants of the flu. It seems that the Covid vaccines will also require continuous tweaking to take into account the way in which the Covid is going to mutate. I think as long as people are realistic about these limitations things will work out and also realise that the Covid jab will probably need to be taken annually just like the flu jab is
The thing is the vaccine is not about eradicating coronavirus, it's about making it less dangerous
Like all anti vax stuff it’s also wrong as seasonal flu isn’t a coronavirus.
Yes and it is also a conveniently forgotten truth that coronavirus vaccines have been made in the past for farm animals. When it makes economic sense they get it done.
Lyndhurst 14
Well-known member
- Jan 16, 2008
- 5,132
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538739-nearly-a-third-of-us-adults-undecided-on-covid-19-vaccine-poll?fbclid=IwAR2qAGI5_8yxW5pKydphaxF5MMljI9KVjP94M_C47I2koNtEy6fgNsKpSAs
Nearly a third of US Adults polled are undecided about having the vaccine - well, no surprise there
Nearly a third of US Adults polled are undecided about having the vaccine - well, no surprise there
My suspicion is once they have an invite to have it their resistance might soften.
Interesting thread on vaccination rates and how ramping them up could alter the picture significantly
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nicko31
Well-known member
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