[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

Papa/US can you please assist us at this time and briefly explain the likelihood of a/an SSW event occurring in the next couple of weeks and the therefore likelihood of any sustained blocking that may lead to potentially snowy conditions for us in Feb?

The data I saw yesterday didn't show any significant SSW event in the offing. However, there are indications that the polar Vortex is going to fragment anyway into mid January, so the chances of colder weather will increase the deeper into January we go.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Papa/US can you please assist us at this time and briefly explain the likelihood of a/an SSW event occurring in the next couple of weeks and the therefore likelihood of any sustained blocking that may lead to potentially snowy conditions for us in Feb?

The el nino has finally buggered off south so there is now half a chance. Papa can be more technical

 

[wehatepalace]

It's January old chap

That's why I said "didn't" rather than "doesn't"...............old chap !

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The el nino has finally buggered off south so there is now half a chance. Papa can be more technical

This period of heavy rain, wind is very reminiscent to a few years back before we got that period of snow, lets see.

 

[Giraffe]

This period of heavy rain, wind is very reminiscent to a few years back before we got that period of snow, lets see.

That's the kind of vague expert opinion I am looking for from this thread. Optimistic without any basis at all. That's where we should all be at.

I'll add that as I look out of my window now, I see the number 7 bus, much like when it snowed really hard in 2010.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

That's the kind of vague expert opinion I am looking for from this thread. Optimistic without any basis at all. That's where we should all be at.

I'll add that as I look out of my window now, I see the number 7 bus, much like when it snowed really hard in 2010.

Did you have to insult me?

 

[Giraffe]

Did you have to insult me?

I wasn't insulting you, genuinely liked the comment, we need more of that, rather than the graphs that no one understands.

 

[Plake]

Agree

 

[Plake]

Although I like the graphs too.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I wasn't insulting you, genuinely liked the comment, we need more of that, rather than the graphs that no one understands.

Really? because I took it the other way. If that is the case I apologise.

 

[Giraffe]

Agree

Although I like the graphs too.

Also agreed, a bit of balance would be nice.

Really? because I took it the other way. If that is the case I apologise.

No worries at all. All weather related posts very welcome.

Oddly dry in Worthing at the moment, almost drought conditions.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Still a signal for a change to potentially colder conditions, with a northerly plunge and then possibly an Easterly in about 10 day's time. I'd say it's 60/40 against at the moment, but the signal is there in the ensemble.

See the top line for temp forecast...

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Please don't let Rotherham away be snowed off.

Please.

 

[Peteinblack]

BBC 4-week forecast (published this morning) maintains that any colder spells and snow will be short-lived, and confined to the north.

Main trend is for more wet and windy weather, but with greater chance of drier spells in between, and not quite as mild as recently, but certainly not cold either.

In short, boring

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

[Peteinblack]

Sorry I can't provide graphs, but then my name is not Van Der - remember him?

Van Der Graaf Generator

 

[Papa Lazarou]

BBC 4-week forecast (published this morning) maintains that any colder spells and snow will be short-lived, and confined to the north.

Main trend is for more wet and windy weather, but with greater chance of drier spells in between, and not quite as mild as recently, but certainly not cold either.

In short, boring

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

the Met Office & BBC outlooks tend to always err towards the 'average / default' for the UK, until there is a compelling signal to deviate. IF (big IF) the models start to agree on a colder outlook, they will reflect this. Remember, they will be seeing all the data we can see, plus a considerable amount more (Met Office data is mainly not shared). The degree of uncertainty at the moment (60/40 warm outlook) supports their current outlook.

 

[Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

the Met Office & BBC outlooks tend to always err towards the 'average / default' for the UK, until there is a compelling signal to deviate. IF (big IF) the models start to agree on a colder outlook, they will reflect this. Remember, they will be seeing all the data we can see, plus a considerable amount more (Met Office data is mainly not shared). The degree of uncertainty at the moment (60/40 warm outlook) supports their current outlook.

You said you were going to send me a link for the charts and explain them.


You've forgotten all about me haven't you?

 

[cirC]

The middle of next week and onwards looks far more interesting.

https://youtu.be/3iCtYs1i3eM

Bring it on.....

 

[Papa Lazarou]

You said you were going to send me a link for the charts and explain them.

You've forgotten all about me haven't you?

I was wasn't I ...

 

[Papa Lazarou]

You said you were going to send me a link for the charts and explain them.


You've forgotten all about me haven't you?

This link displays the ensemble forecast for London and an explanation of how to interpret it.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London