[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee]

This link displays the ensemble forecast for London and an explanation of how to interpret it.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The most recent GFS Ensemble goes slightly colder in the latter stages. A step in the right direction

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Only 9 c max today bloody perishing only 2 c above normal

 

[chucky1973]

The most recent GFS Ensemble goes slightly colder in the latter stages. A step in the right direction

So a chance of a flumping? Been dying to type that!!

 

[El Presidente]

Light flurry of snow here at present.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Light flurry of snow here at present.

Give the cocaine up mate told you before

 

[El Presidente]

Give the cocaine up mate told you before

Bloody nanny state x

 

[chucky1973]

Any updates Papa on the possibility of a flumping?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

There is no chance of snow just average temps next week 6 to 7 c daytime and a bit of frost at night

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

December max daytime average 12.7 c, 5.2 c above average

 

[chucky1973]

There is no chance of snow just average temps next week 6 to 7 c daytime and a bit of frost at night

A frost is a start!!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Any updates Papa on the possibility of a flumping?

Still a chance - but loads of uncertainty still.

The chart below shows a cluster of runs which go for colder air to arrive, but it's still a split forecast between average and cold.

The air temps are shown below:

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Forecast on Radio 4 this morning did mention possible snow next week, but not where.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The very recent 18z run looks a slight improvement in terms of 850hpa temps and snow percentage down here

 

[ryans father]

The very recent 18z run looks a slight improvement in terms of 850hpa temps and snow percentage down here

View attachment 71191

Background synoptics have been highlighting a possible change for a while. The models are now picking up on these signals and cold is being increasingly modelled. Overnight runs are the coldest of the winter and point to a more significant cold spell. As Papa says however things are still fluid so any snow is far from guaranteed.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Background synoptics have been highlighting a possible change for a while. The models are now picking up on these signals and cold is being increasingly modelled. Overnight runs are the coldest of the winter and point to a more significant cold spell. As Papa says however things are still fluid so any snow is far from guaranteed.

This morning's GFS and UKMO both look very encouraging. ECMWF operational is less exciting, but I'll be interested to see the ECM Ensemble to see where it sits.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It will appear here
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london

 

[ryans father]

This morning's GFS and UKMO both look very encouraging. ECMWF operational is less exciting, but I'll be interested to see the ECM Ensemble to see where it sits.

Indeed, the last couple of ECMWF runs have been on the warmer side compared with there ensembles and I expect the same, but we shall see

 

[Flex Your Head]

My BBC weather app is showing max temps of 4 and mins of -1 for Mon - Fri next week in SE London. It certainly looks like it's going to get a lot colder than of late.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

My BBC weather app is showing max temps of 4 and mins of -1 for Mon - Fri next week in SE London. It certainly looks like it's going to get a lot colder than of late.

Finally it looks like the models and forecasting agencies are agreed that we will at least get a change to colder weather next week. The tricky part will be the depth of the cold, where any snow will fall and how long the cold spell will last.