[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[marlowe]

So less than a week after Trump announcing that his peace negotiating talk with Putin went "very well", Putin launches the largest air strike on Ukraine yet.
I dread to think what might have happened if Trump''s talks with Putin hadn't gone that well.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Where do you start with this stuff from Trump?

Posting on social media platform, Truth Social, Trump says: "I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him.

"He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers."

Trump adds: "I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!"

He makes a lot of noise whilst achieving absolutely f***-all.

 

[peterward]

Where do you start with this stuff from Trump?

Posting on social media platform, Truth Social, Trump says: "I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him.

"He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers."

Trump adds: "I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!"

He makes a lot of noise whilst achieving absolutely f***-all.

Talk is cheap and meaningless.

There's a co sponsored Dem/GOP devastating sanctions package with over 80 senators approval, ready to go if he gives the word.

And that's the only word worth anything.

His hot air on truth bullshit social means nothing

 

[The Clamp]

He also told Zelenskyy to “watch his mouth”

Trump doesn’t ever just criticise Putin. He always has to partner it with an attack on Zelenskyy / Ukraine.

Trump is in no position to give orders. He’s singularly failed to do what he boasted he could do within 24hrs.

He’s a pathetic old windbag.

 

[raymondo]

Very interesting interview with Fiona Hill, former Trump aide, British, very experienced with the Russian 'ways'. No great breakthrough news, but worth reading nonetheless. About 10-15 minute read.

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

 

[raymondo]

Confirmation of what we suspected - that the Chinese have been helping Russia rather more than they would like to be revealed.

Not a surprise, sadly, can't trust them.

 

[Triggaaar]

Not a surprise, sadly, can't trust them.

Weren't China threated with sanctions if they helped Russia like this? Time to act.

 

[raymondo]

Weren't China threated with sanctions if they helped Russia like this? Time to act.

I believe they were, yes. Europe is probably too busy falling over themselves to get trade deals with China because of Trump's tariff malarkey.
However, Trump, with his public detesting of Chaina could act if he wants. (not just the uber-tariffs).

 

[peterward]

Very interesting interview with Fiona Hill, former Trump aide, British, very experienced with the Russian 'ways'. No great breakthrough news, but worth reading nonetheless. About 10-15 minute read.

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Great read Raymondo, cheers for sharing.

The Naivety of Trump "locked in a 1980s mindset" that its all about land and be solved akin to a real estate deal, perfectly summed up.

"The entourage, the circle around Putin, have enriched themselves so much by availing themselves of all the goodies that the state can provide, what is it that Trump can give them that they don’t already have?”

 

[Bodian]

Where do you start with this stuff from Trump?

Posting on social media platform, Truth Social, Trump says: "I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him.

"He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers."

Trump adds: "I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!"

He makes a lot of noise whilst achieving absolutely f***-all.

Yes - and look what else he writes though. Having a go at Zelensky - even though all Zelensky has been saying is what Trump is now beginning to seemingly understand about Putin.

 

[The Clamp]

Russia’s daily revenue from oil and gas exports ranges from €70m to €550m.

People claiming that Russia “can’t afford this war much longer” are kidding themselves.

They can go on indefinitely as long as they have enough cannon fodder.

Until sanctions stop that trade (they will never achieve that) the war will continue.

I don’t wish to damper anyone’s optimism but, and I’ve said it before, there is only two ways this war ends;

Russia pulls out because they can’t break Ukraine’s spirit. Unlikely, though they did similar in Afghanistan.

Western boots on the ground, fighting Russian troops.

It will happen. Mark my words. We will go to war with Russia. Probably within five years.

 

[raymondo]

Great read Raymondo, cheers for sharing.

The Naivety of Trump "locked in a 1980s mindset" that its all about land snd be solved akin to a real estate deal, perfectly summed up.

"The entourage, the circle around Putin, have enriched themselves so much by availing themselves of all the goodies that the state can provide, what is it that Trump can give them that they don’t already have?”

It was a damn good article, yes - she has an insider's knowledge and a down-to-earth mentality that means she explains things very well

As an aside: stuff.co.nz is very good IMO. They run regular articles on the war and on Trump. I haven't subscribed as, like you I'm sure, I have more feeds than I can sensibly handle. However, I have a very clued-in friend in Wellington who looks out for the more relevant 'stuff' and forwards to me.

 

[raymondo]

Yes - and look what else he writes though. Having a go at Zelensky - even though all Zelensky has been saying is what Trump is now beginning to seemingly understand about Putin.

View attachment 202697

As we know, he hasn't put out any fires, and his pathetic negotiation tactics and teams have caused major problems. Still, some of his stupidity is a late kick up the arse to Europe and they need to crack on now.

 

[Eric the meek]

It would seem that Russian banks are closing their doors to new loans........

This might be it. I'll refrain from doing a Fabrizio Just yet.

See Youtube updates - Jake Broe, Jason Jay Smart, but especially Darin Gerdes.

 

[raymondo]

Russia’s daily revenue from oil and gas exports ranges from €70m to €550m.

People claiming that Russia “can’t afford this war much longer” are kidding themselves.

They can go on indefinitely as long as they have enough cannon fodder.

Until sanctions stop that trade (they will never achieve that) the war will continue.

I don’t wish to damper anyone’s optimism but, and I’ve said it before, there is only two ways this war ends;

Russia pulls out because they can’t break Ukraine’s spirit. Unlikely, though they did similar in Afghanistan.

Western boots on the ground, fighting Russian troops.

It will happen. Mark my words. We will go to war with Russia. Probably within five years.

Yes, I think Russia can afford this war for longer than many 'experts' believe. But if the oil price dropped, if Russian banks were taken off Swift, if Europe stopped importing ANY Russian oil/gas (I don't know the reality on this) it could speed up the end.

I don't think European troops will be fighting Russians on the ground unless Russia truly invades an EU country. Russia will push their hybrid war against Europe above the absolute limit because they sense Europe really doesn't want direct involvement.
For me, the most likely earlier direct involvement could be the use of European/UK air forces as a partial air shield, knocking out Russian missiles before they can hit Ukrainian cities. I have no idea what percentage of aircraft are US made (or part) and what action could be vetoed by the US.

 

[peterward]

Russia’s daily revenue from oil and gas exports ranges from €70m to €550m.

People claiming that Russia “can’t afford this war much longer” are kidding themselves.

They can go on indefinitely as long as they have enough cannon fodder.

Until sanctions stop that trade (they will never achieve that) the war will continue.

I don’t wish to damper anyone’s optimism but, and I’ve said it before, there is only two ways this war ends;

Russia pulls out because they can’t break Ukraine’s spirit. Unlikely, though they did similar in Afghanistan.

Western boots on the ground, fighting Russian troops.

It will happen. Mark my words. We will go to war with Russia. Probably within five years.

I don't know what the daily revenues are, but most estimates list the cost of the war for Russia is between 500m to 1B$ per day.

The war is more costly per day than Russias oil/gas revenues provide, thus why they've burned through their sovereign wealth fund.

Marry that to record inflation, huge mortgage interest rates and whole segments of the "normal" non war economy on life support/collapsing and I'd suggest such bullish statements on Russias economy aren't telling the whole story.

They've also stopped paying pensions to eligible Russian pensioners living outside Russian mainland in places like Latvia.

Do have to guard against wishful thinking in hoping it all unravels, but it is a house of cards built on sand and the real picture will be worse than the Kremlins airbrushed one. Loyalty is bought and only maintained if paid for and things are very bad economically.

Will it be enough to bring it all down? Maybe, maybe not.

But they can't go on Indefinitely imho.

 

[fly high]

Yes - and look what else he writes though. Having a go at Zelensky - even though all Zelensky has been saying is what Trump is now beginning to seemingly understand about Putin.

View attachment 202697

I 100% agree with Zelenskiy but that is not the way to get Trump on your side. He will always react against any criticism however slight. It hurts but unfortunately you have to suck up to the wanker to get him to do the right thing.
Zelensky should have learnt that by now.

 

[Eric the meek]

I don't know what the daily revenues are, but most estimates list the cost of the war for Russia is between 500m to 1B$ per day.

The war is more costly per day than Russias oil/gas revenues provide, thus why they've burned through their sovereign wealth fund.

Marry that to record inflation, huge mortgage interest rates and whole segments of the "normal" non war economy on life support/collapsing and I'd suggest such bullish statements on Russias economy aren't telling the whole story.

They've also stopped paying pensions to eligible Russian pensioners living outside Russian mainland in places like Latvia.

Do have to guard against wishful thinking in hoping it all unravels, but it is a house of cards built on sand and the real picture will be worse than the Kremlins airbrushed one. Loyalty is bought and only maintained if paid for and things are very bad economically.

Will it be enough to bring it all down? Maybe, maybe not.

But they can't go on Indefinitely imho.

That's about where I am. Got to be aware of the power and danger of wishful thinking, so no hyperbole (thanks Prof. Gerdes), BUT it is really, really bad. Inflation of staple foods is through the roof. That means hunger. No wonder Putin wants more war; he can't risk bringing the troops home. Hunger and restless, bitter troops are a recipe for unrest.

But there's also the elephant in the room that only a few select Russians know about. A million casualties.

I read somewhere (...) that when the Soviet Union collapsed, it collapsed in three days.

 

[raymondo]

I don't know what the daily revenues are, but most estimates list the cost of the war for Russia is between 500m to 1B$ per day.

The war is more costly per day than Russias oil/gas revenues provide, thus why they've burned through their sovereign wealth fund.

Marry that to record inflation, huge mortgage interest rates and whole segments of the "normal" non war economy on life support/collapsing and I'd suggest such bullish statements on Russias economy aren't telling the whole story.

They've also stopped paying pensions to eligible Russian pensioners living outside Russian mainland in places like Latvia.

Do have to guard against wishful thinking in hoping it all unravels, but it is a house of cards built on sand and the real picture will be worse than the Kremlins airbrushed one. Loyalty is bought and only maintained if paid for and things are very bad economically.

Will it be enough to bring it all down? Maybe, maybe not.

But they can't go on Indefinitely imho.

It's a classic 'catastrophe theory' situation where Russia tries to show they are fine, that their elastic band is still stretching within safety limits, but yes at some point it has to break.
Now, this bit of personal news was a surprise to me and Mrs Raymondo yesterday: Babushka Raymondo (been with us for one week now) explained to my wife that pensioners from her occupied village receive the equivalent of £300 per month Russian pension. I questioned this twice, but they confirmed it...I may question it again this evening!!! This is very high IMO, clearly a payment to buy loyalty. They also get VERY cheap Russian gas, almost free apparently. Given that she didn't pay into the Russian pension scheme that seems quite a high amount. As you say, they've stopped paying pensions to eligible Russians outside (like Latvia), but are clearly being generous to try to buy loyalty and calm in occupied Ukraine. Of course, long term it's also an investment if you will, as Russia will just take the properties once the pensioners die. Also, most pension payments end up in bank accounts (there's nothing much to buy) so can be frozen by the state anytime they decide to take that step.
I just thought it's interesting though.

 

[The Clamp]

I think Zelenskyy probably knows Trump will never do the right thing.