[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

I remember not so long ago they wanted former Soviet states like the Baltics to give up NATO. So a slightly different line now. But you just can't trust them.

Yes, a slightly different line. It would appear that the goalposts are at last on the move.

Thank you for spotting that. Russia is not now - officially - demanding the former Soviet Baltic states give up NATO. This is another departure from a previous Russian position. Note that Russia is still demanding a guarantee that 'other former Soviet republics will not join NATO'. I don't know which ones this refers to, as it doesn't specify.

It case it needs repeating, none of this apparent movement by Russia, means that we should trust a single, solitary word they say.

 

[A1X]

If he doesn’t want former Soviet republic joining NATO he should probably stop invading them. Nobody has done more to sell NATO to Eastern Europe than he has.

 

[raymondo]

Yes, a slightly different line. It would appear that the goalposts are at last on the move.

Thank you for spotting that. Russia is not now - officially - demanding the former Soviet Baltic states give up NATO. This is another departure from a previous Russian position. Note that Russia is still demanding a guarantee that 'other former Soviet republics will not join NATO'. I don't know which ones this refers to, as it doesn't specify.

It case it needs repeating, none of this apparent movement by Russia, means that we should trust a single, solitary word they say.

Russia not good at self reflection

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia not good at self reflection

Russian arrogance means that they don't listen and they don't learn. So they are also unaware of how ignorant they are.

In particular, they would not have watched Peter Zeihan's sobering take on 'Russia after Russia' he made back in February.

TLDR: fast forward past the agricultural and mineral resource failures to my favourite part from 13:25 onwards, with a broken Russia giving back land to new tooled up NATO members Finland and Sweden.

 

[papachris]

Yes, a slightly different line. It would appear that the goalposts are at last on the move.

Thank you for spotting that. Russia is not now - officially - demanding the former Soviet Baltic states give up NATO. This is another departure from a previous Russian position. Note that Russia is still demanding a guarantee that 'other former Soviet republics will not join NATO'. I don't know which ones this refers to, as it doesn't specify.

It case it needs repeating, none of this apparent movement by Russia, means that we should trust a single, solitary word they say.

Don't worry. It's easy for me to spot as a Brit that has settled in Estonia, I am always more likely to see something that might affect me directly.

 

[Eric the meek]

Good news on the economic front:

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[peterward]

Yes, a slightly different line. It would appear that the goalposts are at last on the move.

Thank you for spotting that. Russia is not now - officially - demanding the former Soviet Baltic states give up NATO. This is another departure from a previous Russian position. Note that Russia is still demanding a guarantee that 'other former Soviet republics will not join NATO'. I don't know which ones this refers to, as it doesn't specify.

It case it needs repeating, none of this apparent movement by Russia, means that we should trust a single, solitary word they say.

It has nothing to do with any threat to Russian sovereignty from former vassals.

Russia is a sick society, built on their own perceived exceptionalism and need to dominate their near abroad.

They know the cant consume all the former Soviet puppet states today, so just laying the ground to fulfill their imperial lusts to subjugate at a later date.

Something which NATO membership virtually prevents.

There's no threat to Russia, only Russian fantasies of empire.

 

[Eric the meek]

It has nothing to do with any threat to Russian sovereignty from former vassals.

Russia is a sick society, built on their own perceived exceptionalism and need to dominate their near abroad.

They know the cant consume all the former Soviet puppet states today, so just laying the ground to fulfill their imperial lusts to subjugate at a later date.

Something which NATO membership virtually prevents.

There's no threat to Russia, only Russian fantasies of empire.

I agree with all of that, apart from the first half of the your last line.

You think that the existence of Nato, is a threat to Russian fantasies of empire. I agree.

But my assertion, is that a byproduct of that Nato existence, is that Russia is threatened, because the very future of Russia is predicated on the success of the Russian empire. The presence of Nato is a barrier to that empire and its plundering of victim nations. Without the continuing expansion of the empire, Russia cannot prosper, or even exist as a viable nation state. It can no longer subsume other nations, steal the children, and enslave the adults to work in the Russian economy. All its energy has been expended in killing Ukrainians. And of course, the products of the war economy - drones and missiles - do not have a long shelf life, and are not much good at helping the balance of payments.

Russia is collapsing. Militarily, economically, and demographically. The political collapse, a bit of a black box, will come in due course.

 

[peterward]

I agree with all of that, apart from the first half of the your last line.

You think that the existence of Nato, is a threat to Russian fantasies of empire. I agree.

But my assertion, is that a byproduct of that Nato existence, is that Russia is threatened, because the very future of Russia is predicated on the success of the Russian empire. The presence of Nato is a barrier to that empire and its plundering of victim nations. Without the continuing expansion of the empire, Russia cannot prosper, or even exist as a viable nation state. It can no longer subsume other nations, steal the children, and enslave the adults to work in the Russian economy. All its energy has been expended in killing Ukrainians. And of course, the products of the war economy - drones and missiles - do not have a long shelf life, and are not much good at helping the balance of payments.

Russia is collapsing. Militarily, economically, and demographically. The political collapse, a bit of a black box, will come in due course.

I agree entirely Eric. Brilliant post

Meant more that NATO isnt a threat that will directly attack them, just contain them from attacking others.

 

[raymondo]

I agree with all of that, apart from the first half of the your last line.

You think that the existence of Nato, is a threat to Russian fantasies of empire. I agree.

But my assertion, is that a byproduct of that Nato existence, is that Russia is threatened, because the very future of Russia is predicated on the success of the Russian empire. The presence of Nato is a barrier to that empire and its plundering of victim nations. Without the continuing expansion of the empire, Russia cannot prosper, or even exist as a viable nation state. It can no longer subsume other nations, steal the children, and enslave the adults to work in the Russian economy. All its energy has been expended in killing Ukrainians. And of course, the products of the war economy - drones and missiles - do not have a long shelf life, and are not much good at helping the balance of payments.

Russia is collapsing. Militarily, economically, and demographically. The political collapse, a bit of a black box, will come in due course.

I generally agree, but Russia COULD very successfully exist as a viable nation state if it stopped invading neighbours and started behaving like a decent country ...but yes that would take enormous internal change.

 

[raymondo]

Nowhere to hide

Russian official involved in attacks on Ukraine's Mariupol killed in Stavropol explosion

Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov confirmed Zaur Gurtsyev’s death, describing it as a "nighttime incident on Chekhov Street" without providing further details.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Nowhere to hide

Russian official involved in attacks on Ukraine's Mariupol killed in Stavropol explosion

Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov confirmed Zaur Gurtsyev’s death, describing it as a "nighttime incident on Chekhov Street" without providing further details.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine has obviously got a kill list of war criminals. They know where they are. I wonder if these revenge killings will continue after the war is over?

 

[peterward]

Ukraine has obviously got a kill list of war criminals. They know where they are. I wonder if these revenge killings will continue after the war is over?

Budanov has said they will be like Mossad and go after the perpetrators of war crimes indefinitely. "They'll never be any hiding place" etc

Even if the guns on main front stop and war is officially over/paused, can virtually guarantee the hybrid actions of destabilisation won't stop, and assassinations will continue.

 

[Eric the meek]

Budanov has said they will be like Mossad and go after the perpetrators of war crimes indefinitely. "They'll never be any hiding place" etc

Even if the guns on main front stop and war is officially over/paused, can virtually guarantee the hybrid actions of destabilisation won't stop, and assassinations will continue.

Russia has made so many enemies. Both in Ukraine, and other countries. And also inside Russia, where ethnic Russians have repressed everyone else for generations. I'm guessing that the Chechens, Georgians, Dagestanis, Tatars, Bashkirs et al are not peace loving liberal democrats....

 

[fly high]

On the news last night it was reported
"Zelensky said Moscow was "amassing" over 50,000 troops along the Sumy front, where Russian forces have seized several villages across the Ukrainian border in an effort to create what Putin calls "security buffer zones".

Sumy governor Oleh Hryhorov said Russian forces had seized four villages and that fighting was continuing near other settlements in the area."

If Ukraine knows they are there ready to attack why can't it take them out before that? Ukraine has been told it can attack ant military base to defend itself so why not just do it.

 

[Binney on acid]

I generally agree, but Russia COULD very successfully exist as a viable nation state if it stopped invading neighbours and started behaving like a decent country ...but yes that would take enormous internal change.

Behave like a decent country ?!! I'm not holding my breath. Mr Genocide can justify his actions until such time as he has reconstructed the Soviet empire. He has given his psychotic marauding murderers carte blanche to achieve his objectives, by using his control of the media to convince them that The Soviet Union was never legitimately dissolved in the first place.

 

[Eric the meek]

I generally agree, but Russia COULD very successfully exist as a viable nation state if it stopped invading neighbours and started behaving like a decent country ...but yes that would take enormous internal change.

It could become like a western liberal democracy at some distant point in the future, but before then, I think Russia will collapse into a dangerous, febrile place.

The following is a 'best guess' so please indulge me, but really, a thousand different things could happen. Think of a power vacuum, a lawless place, gunfights in Moscow, power struggles, warlords settling old scores, loose nukes being traded, alliances and conflicts coming and going. That could be the backdrop for a while. On the sidelines, regional powers (China, Turkey and yes, Ukraine) might be jostling for influence, power, trade etc with the more amenable locals, who could be desperate for aid.

 

[raymondo]

Behave like a decent country ?!! I'm not holding my breath. Mr Genocide can justify his actions until such time as he has reconstructed the Soviet empire. He has given his psychotic marauding murderers carte blanche to achieve his objectives, by using his control of the media to convince them that The Soviet Union was never legitimately dissolved in the first place.

Yes indeed...it was a theoretical 'COULD'

 

[raymondo]

It could become like a western liberal democracy at some distant point in the future, but before then, I think Russia will collapse into a dangerous, febrile place.

The following is a 'best guess' so please indulge me, but really, a thousand different things could happen. Think of a power vacuum, a lawless place, gunfights in Moscow, power struggles, warlords settling old scores, loose nukes being traded, alliances and conflicts coming and going. That could be the backdrop for a while. On the sidelines, regional powers (China, Turkey and yes, Ukraine) might be jostling for influence, power, trade etc with the more amenable locals, who could be desperate for aid.

Yes, that's certainly a possible direction, and far more likely than Russia reverting to a self contained, non expansionist country - that train has long departed.

You successfully make it sound like Blade Runner or Star Wars but without the nice bits (Musk will provide the androids).