[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

Yes. Here's one of those military targets.

At what point do Ukraine say enough is enough, and start bombing equivalent targets in Russia?

 

[raymondo]

At what point do Ukraine say enough is enough, and start bombing equivalent targets in Russia?

I know. Every week I feel the same.
I believe they are very nervous about losing some support from within Europe if they do so (and the US, if there is still support).
But I daydream about their taking out the Kremlin with 200 drones. I don't know if that would be a great idea, but...
Another 30 kaboomed bombers would be even better.

 

[Eric the meek]

I took note of something in Joe Blogg's latest video on the shadow fleet. It may be something; it may be nothing.

Nikolai Patrushev (someone who we don't hear from that often...) told the newspaper Kommersant that Russia's navy was ready to protect its ships.
I read recently that it was also in Kommersant that someone wrote that the Russian economy was not sustainable (!).

So one takeaway might be that Kommersant is a vehicle that the Kremlin is favouring for its messaging.
Another takeaway could be that we may see/hear a bit more of Patrushev in the future...

Here's the video. See the graph of Russia's fossil fuel export revenue at 13:50. TL/DR: it's falling.

 

[raymondo]

I took note of something in Joe Blogg's latest video on the shadow fleet. It may be something; it may be nothing.

Nikolai Patrushev (someone who we don't hear from that often...) told the newspaper Kommersant that Russia's navy was ready to protect its ships.
I read recently that it was also in Kommersant that someone wrote that the Russian economy was not sustainable (!).

So one takeaway might be that Kommersant is a vehicle that the Kremlin is favouring for its messaging.
Another takeaway could be that we may see/hear a bit more of Patrushev in the future...

Here's the video. See the graph of Russia's fossil fuel export revenue at 13:50. TL/DR: it's falling.

A very interesting and important video from Joe. So, the policing of the shadow fleet is basically poorly coordinated, rubbish and ineffective. It blows a lot of the grandstanding announcements out of the water. Great graphs in here, very informative.

 

[A1X]

At what point do Ukraine say enough is enough, and start bombing equivalent targets in Russia?

Bombing and targeting civilians is a fantastic way of causing a civilian population to rally round even an unpopular leader. It happened in Britain in 1940, it happened in Germany in 1944, it’s happened in Vietnam, Cambodia, Serbia, Israel, Iran, Palestine and now Ukraine. The best way to end this war is Putin dangling from a lamppost by his bootstraps, that won’t happen if Ukraine gets an increasingly fractious Russian population to rally round him. Even ignoring everything else in the geopolitical space, it’d be a dumb move tactically.

 

[Eric the meek]

A very interesting and important video from Joe. So, the policing of the shadow fleet is basically poorly coordinated, rubbish and ineffective. It blows a lot of the grandstanding announcements out of the water. Great graphs in here, very informative.

There will always be someone trying to get round the sanctions.
But the direction of travel is south. The revenue cake is getting smaller.

That graph, together with the reported May fall (if true) in oil and gas export revenue of 50%, might be indicative of a few chairs being rearranged in Moscow.

 

[Triggaaar]

Bombing and targeting civilians is a fantastic way of causing a civilian population to rally round even an unpopular leader. It happened in Britain in 1940, it happened in Germany in 1944, it’s happened in Vietnam, Cambodia, Serbia, Israel, Iran, Palestine and now Ukraine.

I agree with your general point. Your history is no doubt better than mine, but I didn't realise Hitler was unpopular until German cities were bombed? I didn't know Churchill was unpopular before the Blitz either.

 

[bhafc99]

At what point do Ukraine say enough is enough, and start bombing equivalent targets in Russia?

Ukraine is fighting a 21st century war. Strategic pinpoint attacks on key assets with remote drones etc. Russia is stuck 75 years in the past, dumbly lobbing bombs at civilian cities.

 

[Flounce]

I agree with your general point. Your history is no doubt better than mine, but I didn't realise Hitler was unpopular until German cities were bombed? I didn't know Churchill was unpopular before the Blitz either.

I am no historian either but reckon civilians and residential homes being targeted is likely to make the targeted population more likely to back their leaders if they are defending their country from aggressors, as long as they are not being over run on land

I imagine most Ukrainians know the future will be even bleaker if Russia conquers them

 

[A1X]

I agree with your general point. Your history is no doubt better than mine, but I didn't realise Hitler was unpopular until German cities were bombed? I didn't know Churchill was unpopular before the Blitz either.

Not saying they were, it’s the general point about rallying round leaders and flags at times of crisis. It isn’t just bombing either, look at COVID, every incumbent globally got a boost when the lockdowns started as people saw a threat and put their faith in the leaders in place. Interestingly only one leader didn’t see that happen, the big orange man baby that he is.

 

[fly high]

I agree with your general point. Your history is no doubt better than mine, but I didn't realise Hitler was unpopular until German cities were bombed? I didn't know Churchill was unpopular before the Blitz either.

Churchill was probably not that popular with the general public or fellow politicians. He'd swapped allegiance between the Tories and Liberals, he was against the general strike in the 30s, seen as a toff and possibly got unfairly blamed for the disaster at Gallipoli.

Agree Hitler was still popular but either way it strengthened the resolve of people.

 

[fly high]

Not saying they were, it’s the general point about rallying round leaders and flags at times of crisis. It isn’t just bombing either, look at COVID, every incumbent globally got a boost when the lockdowns started as people saw a threat and put their faith in the leaders in place. Interestingly only one leader didn’t see that happen, the big orange man baby that he is.

Maybe because he was telling everyone to drink bleach, even MAGA aren't that stupid. Maybe not!!

 

[Eric the meek]

Not saying they were, it’s the general point about rallying round leaders and flags at times of crisis. It isn’t just bombing either, look at COVID, every incumbent globally got a boost when the lockdowns started as people saw a threat and put their faith in the leaders in place. Interestingly only one leader didn’t see that happen, the big orange man baby that he is.

As well as being a PR disaster, and having the opposite effect of the one intended (to reduce morale), killing civilians is unwise because 'they aren't a valid military target'. In other words, killing civilians doesn't actually degrade the military power of the opposition.

General Ben Hodges puts it like this: 'Don't fight the arrows, aim for the archer'. In other words, take out the oil refineries (to degrade the enemy's economy), take out the ammo dumps (to reduce the enemy's ability to shoot at you), take out the bridges (to stop the enemy trains from supplying the front lines and occupied territories), and take out the strategic bombers (to reduce the enemy's ability to bomb your own civilians).

In short, killing civilians is a waste of time, effort, money, munitions and any PR advantage you may have.

 

[Bodian]

As well as being a PR disaster, and having the opposite effect of the one intended (to reduce morale), killing civilians is unwise because 'they aren't a valid military target'. In other words, killing civilians doesn't actually degrade the military power of the opposition.

General Ben Hodges puts it like this: 'Don't fight the arrows, aim for the archer'. In other words, take out the oil refineries (to degrade the enemy's economy), take out the ammo dumps (to reduce the enemy's ability to shoot at you), take out the bridges (to stop the enemy trains from supplying the front lines and occupied territories), and take out the strategic bombers (to reduce the enemy's ability to bomb your own civilians).

In short, killing civilians is a waste of time, effort, money, munitions and any PR advantage you may have.

It's almost like two completely different wars going on at the same time - one side fairly concentrating on military targets, the other side just aiming at civilians.

 

[Eric the meek]

It's almost like two completely different wars going on at the same time - one side fairly concentrating on military targets, the other side just aiming at civilians.

To a degree yes. It is a sobering thought that this week is likely to see Russian casualties exceed 1 million.

I wonder what would happen if that figure ever got out into the wider Russian society?

 

[raymondo]

Whichever way we look at it, I still think the Ukrainian leadership and drone operators show remarkable constraint by keeping to their strategy of only hitting Russian military infrastructure. So many of them must know of civilian friends, relatives killed or injured by Russian bombs, drones, missiles. They must be itching to lash out sometimes. Just remarkable self control IMO.

 

[Triggaaar]

I am no historian either but reckon civilians and residential homes being targeted is likely to make the targeted population more likely to back their leaders if they are defending their country from aggressors, as long as they are not being over run on land

So you agree with me then?

 

[Triggaaar]

Not saying they were

Ok, I thought you were saying they were unpopular leaders, but I understand if that's not what you meant.

 

[raymondo]

That didn't take long... Trump wants to decide himself on increased sanctions

 

[fly high]

That didn't take long... Trump wants to decide himself on increased sanctions

I give up on that wanker. He really is a Russian asset. A disgrace to humanity. All we can hope is the Senate remains strong but won't hold my breath.