[Albion] Points to be safe this season

[Mr Putdown]

We also have the best GD of the bottom half of the table.

Since when has -7 been better than +2?

 

[dazzer6666]

West Ham/Villa on the last day could be a decider........unless they’re both down by then

 

[Mellotron]

Since when has -7 been better than +2?

Look at the date and time I posted, dimwit.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

I'd bite your hand off for anything south of 36 mate, but I can't see it.

There's be loads of odd results at this time of year. 38 with a decent GD is the most probable cut off

18th will be 35 points or fewer this season. The remaining fixtures of a number of teams, including us, are very tough.

35 points with a decent goal difference will be enough to stay up.

 

[spence]

18th will be 35 points or fewer this season. The remaining fixtures of a number of teams, including us, are very tough.

35 points with a decent goal difference will be enough to stay up.

Agree, Thought it was 37 but 35 with a better GD looks enough to stay up after results today.

 

[Mr Putdown]

Look at the date and time I posted, dimwit.

Oops.

Apologies.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I think it’ll be 37/38.

With four of the traditional ‘top six’ to visit the Amex, we’ll need some points off them to survive. We’ll need luck and moments of genius but I think we can do this.

 

[BN41Albion]

I think it’ll be 37/38.

With four of the traditional ‘top six’ to visit the Amex, we’ll need some points off them to survive. We’ll need luck and moments of genius but I think we can do this.

Looking at everyone from Newcastle down (bar Norwich), everyone has quite a few of the top sides left to play, apart from Watford who have a decent run in, and Newcastle's isn't too bad looking. Villa, West Ham and Bournemouth's run aren't great on paper, which is hopefully very good for us...

 

[Publius Ovidius]

We”re dooomed

 

[vagabond]

League table starting to look a lot more encouraging now.

If we keep picking up a point here and there we’ll be fine.

Also very good to see Villa starting to lose hope. Them and the ‘appy Ammers look on the ropes and running out of games.

 

[sparkie]

2 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses.

Do-able.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

It does feel like over 35 (or 35 with good GD) will be enough. Still a stretch to get there, but really encouraged by the performance yesterday. The determination all over the pitch was palpable.

 

[zefarelly]

I did the predictor and got to 41 points, with 34 for 18th, the second bit is probably realistic, I'd be bloody amazed if we get to 41.

 

[spence]

League table starting to look a lot more encouraging now.

If we keep picking up a point here and there we’ll be fine.

Also very good to see Villa starting to lose hope. Them and the ‘appy Ammers look on the ropes and running out of games.

West Ham have a very kind run in towards the end. Think that will be there saving grace.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

A simple extrapolation from “total is 2pts less than 1pt per game” gives 36pts (with best GD of ties) as the magic number.

If it’s true that several teams involved (including us) have harder than average fixtures remaining then that number can come down to 35pts.

So, we need 7pts more from our 11 games.

1 win, 4 draws and 6 defeats.

or

2 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats.

Bookies odds (typically around 5/1) suggest they think we have approx. 15% probability of relegation. They are underestimating how good we are. Paddy Power are currently happy to be outliers and attract a few punts on us at 13/2 presumably to balance their book a bit - still very bad value.

 

[bhawoddy]

had a look at the remianing fixtures and i think we'll be lucky to get to 35 points imo on current form. Cant see that being enough........obv hope it is though.

 

[Bodian]

Quite a few of these predictor thingy's let you just put in one or two scores, and then it calculates the rest itself going by recent form and so on. I've tried a few now, and they result in 32 points for 18th (and us safe).

 

[vagabond]

West Ham have a very kind run in towards the end. Think that will be there saving grace.

Possibly, but they also have Moyes and a very disgruntled fan base. I can definitely see them going down.

 

[Rugrat]

36 and GD will be enough I think.

B'Muff have an insanely difficult run in. Not convinced by Watford either. Haven't got them to get another point away from home and 3 of their 6 home games are v current top 3, so 33 for them

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Quite a few of these predictor thingy's let you just put in one or two scores, and then it calculates the rest itself going by recent form and so on. I've tried a few now, and they result in 32 points for 18th (and us safe).

32pts would be remarkably low but not that surprised it is feasible this year.