[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Saw a poll today that has Reform at

Poll out today had Reform at 32%. I know it’s 4 years away, but areyou still happy with our FPTP system that will give Farage a 20-30 seat majority from a third of the popular vote in a GE?

Yes.

I am not going to switch to backing a system that has kept us safe from extremists just because the extremists have become so popular they may win in that system.

Also . . . . I don't believe for a moment Farage will win a majority in FPTP. His support seems to be spread evenly across the nation which means 32% in each constituency will win him only 60-70 seats.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Yes.

I am not going to switch to backing a system that has kept us safe from extremists just because the extremists have become so popular they may win in that system.

Also . . . . I don't believe for a moment Farage will win a majority in FPTP. His support seems to be spread evenly across the nation which means 32% in each constituency will win him only 60-70 seats.

Well Starmer getting 1 in 5 (20%) of the electorate to vote for him, but in the right constituencies got him a majority of 174 seats and made opposition meaningless for the next 5 years. I've never seen such a small vote get such a large majority in any country that doesn't have FPTP.

But I'm sure 32% will be fine

 

[Brian Munich]

Yes.

I am not going to switch to backing a system that has kept us safe from extremists just because the extremists have become so popular they may win in that system.

Also . . . . I don't believe for a moment Farage will win a majority in FPTP. His support seems to be spread evenly across the nation which means 32% in each constituency will win him only 60-70 seats.

I used the very scientific and well-regarded Electoral Calculus for that estimate, so I wouldn’t take it lightly.

I’ve hated the FPTP system since I’ve been politically aware, and that includes the way it has made up the current parliament, even though I don’t mind Labour/Starmer.

 

[TomandJerry]

As far as I'm aware FPTP is only used to two European countries, one being the UK and the other Belarus.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Well Starmer getting 1 in 5 (20%) of the electorate to vote for him got a majority of 174 seats and made opposition meaningless for the next 5 years. I've never seen such a small vote get such a large majority in any country that doesn't have FPTP.

But I'm sure 32% will be fine

Ok sport. We have well established different views about FPTP versus single transferrable proportional origami.

I will bet you £50 (to a charity of mutual approval) that Reform end up with fewer seats in the next general election than they would have won had we used PR as our electoral system. Will you accept the bet?

And I have translated the bet into language more easily understandable by a Reform supporter below:

I will bet you 50 prime English pounds that Reform end up with less seats in the next general election than they would of won with PR.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I will bet you 50 prime English pounds that Reform end up with less seats in the next general election than they would of won with PR.

Would HAVE .

 

[Peacehaven Wild Kids]

Would HAVE .

Let’s keep it simple here

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I used the very scientific and well-regarded Electoral Calculus for that estimate, so I wouldn’t take it lightly.

I’ve hated the FPTP system since I’ve been politically aware, and that includes the way it has made up the current parliament, even though I don’t mind Labour/Starmer.

If your ideal scenario is a Labour/Green/Liberal coalition then I can't argue with your position.
Also, given his general absence from the house I am increasingly less concerned about a bench of Farage and chums braying in significant opposition. So I am less militantly against FPTP that I was a year ago.

I don't doubt that Fazza would do well in FPTP with a 32% vote, but I maintain he'd get more seats with PR than he will with FPTP.

Anyway fortunately/sadly we will never have it put to the test, although the pollsters will be able to analyze the next GE voting for us.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

As far as I'm aware FPTP is only used to two European countries, one being the UK and the other Belarus.

Sometimes being in a minority, even with odd bedfellows, isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Most people round the world drive on the right side of the road....
And the proportion of people round the world living in poverty vastly outnumbers the comfortable.
And of course most Germans in the late 1930s supported Hitler.
(I appreciate that it is very hard to get to the bottom of questions like this though )

 

[Brian Munich]

Ok sport. We have well established different views about FPTP versus single transferrable proportional origami.

I will bet you £50 (to a charity of mutual approval) that Reform end up with fewer seats in the next general election than they would have won had we used PR as our electoral system. Will you accept the bet?

And I have translated the bet into language more easily understandable by a Reform supporter below:

I will bet you 50 prime English pounds that Reform end up with less seats in the next general election than they would of won with PR.

I’ll take that bet (cash payout not charity). Bookmark this post - hope you win!

It’s fewer seats, by the way.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I’ll take that bet (cash payout not charity). Bookmark this post - hope you win!

It’s fewer seats, by the way.

Lol! £, Euros or Drachmas?

(But do read the entirety of my post; and the less said about that the better )

 

[Guinness Boy]

Couple of tremendous whooshes this evening. Good work everyone.

 

[Brian Munich]

Lol! £, Euros or Drachmas?

(But do read the entirety of my post; and the less said about that the better )

Yeh, just skimmed and didn’t realise there were some LOLs. But yes, ££ Sterling paid direct to the bank account of the winner.

I still hope you win, but when you look at how accurately exit polls can be extrapolated to seats won on election night, I really don’t think you can ignore the maths of a company like Electoral Calculus.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Couple of tremendous whooshes this evening. Good work everyone.

Absolutely!

 

[TomandJerry]

Sometimes being in a minority, even with odd bedfellows, isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Most people round the world drive on the right side of the road....
And the proportion of people round the world living in poverty vastly outnumbers the comfortable.
And of course most Germans in the late 1930s supported Hitler.
(I appreciate that it is very hard to get to the bottom of questions like this though )

But on one hand we want to throw mud at Belarus using them as an example not to leave the ECHR and on the other hand we are happy to align with them in how we vote?

Sorry if I'm abit confused

 

[WATFORD zero]

I’ll take that bet (cash payout not charity). Bookmark this post - hope you win!

It’s fewer seats, by the way.

Oi, that was my bet. Harry's in for £100 now (half cash, half charity )

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Let’s keep it simple here

View attachment 202886

We have managed to avoid tomfoolery for 7 pages.....I knew that eventually there would be a bluebottle or two. I'm going to watch some football now but I'm sure there will be enough wise people online to hold the fort, and squirt the 'Raid' as required.

 

[Bodian]

Have you noticed though how tetchy he gets when challenged, like in that earlier linked video.

Also, for a "great" orator - allegedly - those sharing the podium with him didn't look over enthused!

Like Trump - hates having to actually explain things and hates being challenged.

And how would members of Reform vote him out as party leader, should they choose to do so?

He's the CEO of his own company that people pay into to keep him well-funded. Won't/can't get voted out.

 

[Is it PotG?]

We have managed to avoid tomfoolery for 7 pages.....I knew that eventually there would be a bluebottle or two. I'm going to watch some football now but I'm sure there will be enough wise people online to hold the fort, and squirt the 'Raid' as required.

It's a two-way street sadly

 

[WATFORD zero]

But on one hand we want to throw mud at Belarus using them as an example not to leave the ECHR and on the other hand we are happy to align with them in how we vote?

Sorry if I'm abit confused

Harry is aligning himself with Belarus's voting system, nothing more

I think I have reached my idiocy quota for today (and I'm not referring to your posts)