[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Guinness Boy]

It's been Labour since 1922 so probably qualifies as a heartland

That council seat?

 

[n1 gull]

That council seat?

Sorry no idea about that, but just Labour MP's since 1922

Next May will be interesting to how well Reform do in Wales
Obviously the Welsh hate the Tories so could never vote for them

 

[Pavilionaire]

My money is on the Tories dumping Badenoch, overtaking Reform in the polls and giving Labour a good fight at the next election.

This is what the Tories do in opposition, make a mistake with the leader and eventually get it right. This time I'm not convinced they will allow a general election to tell them.

I don't see anyone within the Tory ranks who could possibly replace Badenoch and overtake Reform in the polls.

Firstly, if they boot her out this year it will be yet another leadership change, so Boris > Truss > Sunak > Badenoch > Newcomer. That will be 5 leaders in 3 years, the sort of statistic that would make the Watford Chairman proud.

And in order to give Labour "a good fight" at the next GE the Tories will need to be up at c. 30%. That will require policies that will be attractive to the public and a leader with some charisma. Who is this person and where are these policies?

The fact that Brexit has been an economic disaster does not seem to have put off 30% of the electorate from voting for Farage. He OWNS that rump of the 52% Leave vote that remains.

But if they go back towards Europe it will not be as far as the Lib Dems are prepared to go, so any Tory floater experiencing Bregret will vote for Ed Davey. And Labour are in the middle, making trade deals whilst sticking with Brexit, which is more than the Tories managed in the 8 years following the referendum.

Labour are getting stuff done under Keir Starmer. He commands the respect of his party, there is a desire in that Cabinet to try and sort out the mess. You can level criticism at them, but the personal enrichment and cronyism of the Johnson years has not been repeated.

Immigration is down, growth is up, the politics is grown-up once again, he cuts a statesmanlike figure on the world stage. And now he's rightly gone on the attack against Reform, and if he combines this with talking up his policies and his vision for Britain Labour's ratings will surely improve in the polls.

I think the Tories will ditch Badenoch, but for either Cleverly or Jenrick, and that is just same old, same old.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Well to be fair, he has experience of getting narcissistic grifters who lie constantly into Downing Street, but Shirley having been burnt once, nobody would be that stupid again, would they

Apparently he wants revenge on the Tories, so is using Reform to do it.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Sorry no idea about that, but just Labour MP's since 1922

Next May will be interesting to how well Reform do in Wales
Obviously the Welsh hate the Tories so could never vote for them

I'm sure you are aware that voting for the local council is vastly different from voting for an MP.

Council by-elections have a notoriously low turnout, so those voting for the Reform guy made a big effort to get their man in. Many people didn't bother but will vote in a GE.

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

Apparently he wants revenge on the Tories, so is using Reform to do it.

Maybe the Tories forced him to use the "I wasn't sure if I could see properly, so I took my car for a drive in a populated area" excuse.

I'd be fuming if I was forced to use that.

 

[n1 gull]

I'm sure you are aware that voting for the local council is vastly different from voting for an MP.

Council by-elections have a notoriously low turnout, so those voting for the Reform guy made a big effort to get their man in. Many people didn't bother but will vote in a GE.

Yeh of course but the parties do take note and they are a kind of opinion poll in themselves

As I say next May will be the real story when they hold the proper elections

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Yeh of course but the parties do take note and they are a kind of opinion poll in themselves

As I say next May will be the real story when they hold the proper elections

That will be council elections not a General Election.

 

[A1X]

Talking of council by-elections, I’m not saying the Tory ground campaign for the
Burgess Hill one next week is in a spot of disarray but the other week I got their campaign leaflet shoved through my door…in Haywards Heath

 

[n1 gull]

That will be council elections not a General Election.

Welsh Assembly elections

 

[clapham_gull]

Really?

Another leadership election makes them look even more of a laughing stock.

Who are the Tories going to choose?

They will go through as many leaders as they think. How many did they have in opposition last time ?

No idea who they will choose. Inevitably they will return more to the centre .

I think the Tories will ditch Badenoch, but for either Cleverly or Jenrick, and that is just same old, same old.

Yes scraping around the at the bottom, but Cleverly is clearly far more relatable than Jenrick.

 

[ROSM]

They will go through as many leaders as they think. How many did they have in opposition last time ?

No idea who they will choose. Inevitably they will return more to the centre .


Yes scraping around the at the bottom, but Cleverly is clearly far more relatable than Jenrick.

Cleverly would have been leader if there hadn't been some of his team playing silly buggers and lending votes to a no hoper in the aim that it would be JC vs said loser (Jenrick)

 

[dsr-burnley]

How would tactical voting work for Reform? Tactical voting is generally where people vote for a party that isn't their first choice, in order to unseat a candidate/party they don't want to get in. That is - they sacrifice their vote.

Where do you see that tactical voting coming from - would it be naturally Tory voters lending their vote to Reform do you think?

Certainly there would be Tory voters in Labour seats would be willing to vote Reform to get Labour out.

But there is also great potential for traditional Labour supporters to vote Reform. In spite of the red wall collapse of the Labour vote against Boris Johnson - and that vote didn't come back very far last time, even though the seats did - it is still not widely recognised that Labour no longer represents the views of a lot of their former supporters. For one thing, a lot of them still oppose the idea that foreign governments should have overriding powers over the UK. For another, the policy of all parties that has been running for years, that a working man with a family should pay higher taxes so that a non-working man with a family can have the same standard of living is not popular. Releasing criminals from jail is not popular. Mass immigration to drive wages down is not popular.

Even Burnley elected a Tory MP in 2019. If traditional Labour supporters have absolutely turned against Labour, then Reform (whose economic policies in some respects are left of Labour, especially in respect of tax on workers) is an obvious choice.

 

[Berty23]

Certainly there would be Tory voters in Labour seats would be willing to vote Reform to get Labour out.

But there is also great potential for traditional Labour supporters to vote Reform. In spite of the red wall collapse of the Labour vote against Boris Johnson - and that vote didn't come back very far last time, even though the seats did - it is still not widely recognised that Labour no longer represents the views of a lot of their former supporters. For one thing, a lot of them still oppose the idea that foreign governments should have overriding powers over the UK. For another, the policy of all parties that has been running for years, that a working man with a family should pay higher taxes so that a non-working man with a family can have the same standard of living is not popular. Releasing criminals from jail is not popular. Mass immigration to drive wages down is not popular.

Even Burnley elected a Tory MP in 2019. If traditional Labour supporters have absolutely turned against Labour, then Reform (whose economic policies in some respects are left of Labour, especially in respect of tax on workers) is an obvious choice.

Which reform policies are left of Labour?

Worth noting they only count if they won’t crash the economy.

I assume all the times they go against workers rights are included here?

 

[rogersix]

[/QUOTE]

Certainly there would be Tory voters in Labour seats would be willing to vote Reform to get Labour out.

But there is also great potential for traditional Labour supporters to vote Reform. In spite of the red wall collapse of the Labour vote against Boris Johnson - and that vote didn't come back very far last time, even though the seats did - it is still not widely recognised that Labour no longer represents the views of a lot of their former supporters. For one thing, a lot of them still oppose the idea that foreign governments should have overriding powers over the UK. For another, the policy of all parties that has been running for years, that a working man with a family should pay higher taxes so that a non-working man with a family can have the same standard of living is not popular. Releasing criminals from jail is not popular. Mass immigration to drive wages down is not popular.

Even Burnley elected a Tory MP in 2019. If traditional Labour supporters have absolutely turned against Labour, then Reform (whose economic policies in some respects are left of Labour, especially in respect of tax on workers) is an obvious choice.

Have you managed to convince anyone yet?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I'm sure you are aware that voting for the local council is vastly different from voting for an MP.

Council by-elections have a notoriously low turnout, so those voting for the Reform guy made a big effort to get their man in. Many people didn't bother but will vote in a GE.

Agree.

So why do you keep posting about Lib-Dem wins in Council Elections?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Agree.

So why do you keep posting about Lib-Dem wins in Council Elections?

To show Reform isn't winning despite all the crowing about the polls. On three of the LibDem wins, Reform only came third, and in the fourth, it came second but still crowing they got a third of the votes. The LibDem candidate got 51% so not really much of a boast from Reform is it?

 

[Bodian]

Certainly there would be Tory voters in Labour seats would be willing to vote Reform to get Labour out.

But there is also great potential for traditional Labour supporters to vote Reform. In spite of the red wall collapse of the Labour vote against Boris Johnson - and that vote didn't come back very far last time, even though the seats did - it is still not widely recognised that Labour no longer represents the views of a lot of their former supporters. For one thing, a lot of them still oppose the idea that foreign governments should have overriding powers over the UK. For another, the policy of all parties that has been running for years, that a working man with a family should pay higher taxes so that a non-working man with a family can have the same standard of living is not popular. Releasing criminals from jail is not popular. Mass immigration to drive wages down is not popular.

Even Burnley elected a Tory MP in 2019. If traditional Labour supporters have absolutely turned against Labour, then Reform (whose economic policies in some respects are left of Labour, especially in respect of tax on workers) is an obvious choice.

That's not 'Tactical Voting' though is it!

What you have described there is people voting for the party that most aligns with their own views, and that they think will deliver the policies they wish to see implemented.

That's as far from tactical voting as can be really.

 

[Bodian]

Releasing criminals from jail is not popular.

What's Reform's stance on prison numbers though?

All I can find is something from 2020 that said they wouldn't put people in jail in the first place, but put them under Home Detention, and would ban sentences of under six months. So, their policy appears to be to allow criminals not to go to jail, instead of letting them out after serving some of their sentence.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

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