[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

But on one hand we want to throw mud at Belarus using them as an example not to leave the ECHR and on the other hand we are happy to align with them in how we vote?

Sorry if I'm abit confused

No, what I meant was that what Belarus chose as an electoral system is irrelevant.
Consider, also, the 'right' claim that our unique position as the only former members of the EU is a virtue.
Actually the status of uniqueness is irrelevant.
The only thing that's relevant is whether being in or out of the EU is a good thing.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yeh, just skimmed and didn’t realise there were some LOLs. But yes, ££ Sterling paid direct to the bank account of the winner.

I still hope you win, but when you look at how accurately exit polls can be extrapolated to seats won on election night, I really don’t think you can ignore the maths of a company like Electoral Calculus.

Please don't let me forget about the bet. I am offline very shortly for the footballs and am just checking various correspondence threads....

 

[TomandJerry]

No, what I meant was that what Belarus chose as an electoral system is irrelevant.
Consider, also, the 'right' claim that our unique position as the only former members of the EU is a virtue.
Actually the status of uniqueness is irrelevant.
The only thing that's relevant is whether being in or out of the EU is a good thing.

Greenland voted to leave the EEC

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/05/greenland-votes-to-leave-the-european-community-1982

 

[A1X]

 

[dsr-burnley]

Yes.

I am not going to switch to backing a system that has kept us safe from extremists just because the extremists have become so popular they may win in that system.

Also . . . . I don't believe for a moment Farage will win a majority in FPTP. His support seems to be spread evenly across the nation which means 32% in each constituency will win him only 60-70 seats.

If he has 32% in each constituency, then he will get tactical voting in his favour as well as against him, then he is in with a chance. Particularly in the "red wall" which has already showed its willingness to turn against Labour.

 

[clapham_gull]

I'm not sure Reform's core base do tactical voting as neither do the Tories.

They don't respond to that sort of campaigning. They will also struggle to get competent candidates at the next election.

The party (although doing well in the polls) are actually at a crossroads. Farage knows to make the extra leap he has to come up with policies rather than dog whistle populist statements. This is already causing issues internally and the sort of independent media that have been supportive are today starting to ask serious questions about the "new" direction.

Cummings is clearly briefing Farage behind the scenes, but he is hell bent on destroying the Tories without an eye on how a move away from "populism" will destroy Reform too.

My money is on the Tories dumping Badenoch, overtaking Reform in the polls and giving Labour a good fight at the next election.

This is what the Tories do in opposition, make a mistake with the leader and eventually get it right. This time I'm not convinced they will allow a general election to tell them.

 

[darkwolf666]

I'm not sure Reform's core base do tactical voting as neither do the Tories.

They don't respond to that sort of campaigning. They will also struggle to get competent candidates at the next election.

The party (although doing well in the polls) are actually at a crossroads. Farage knows to make the extra leap he has to come up with policies rather than dog whistle populist statements. This is already causing issues internally and the sort of independent media that have been supportive are today starting to ask serious questions about the "new" direction.

Cummings is clearly briefing Farage behind the scenes, but he is hell bent on destroying the Tories without an eye on how a move away from "populism" will destroy Reform too.

My money is on the Tories dumping Badenoch, overtaking Reform in the polls and giving Labour a good fight at the next election.

This is what the Tories do in opposition, make a mistake with the leader and eventually get it right. This time I'm not convinced they will allow a general election to tell them.

Badenoch being elected as Leader of the Conservatives, and despite what Mr. Farage says, Leader of the Opposition, was a last ditch attempt to steer voters back from Reform. Like you, I think enough people will see through Reform's Emperor's New Clothes policy to realise they aren't a serious political party at all, just a vehicle for one man to get very noisy and rich in the process!

Having said that, I am sure Reform will continue to get the protest vote, like at the local council elections with small turn outs, from those of a right-wing tendency and Farage won't be going anywhere just yet. He might even turn up occasionally for business in the House that doesn't directly involve things he wants to shout about...

 

[cunning fergus]

I'm not sure Reform's core base do tactical voting as neither do the Tories.

They don't respond to that sort of campaigning. They will also struggle to get competent candidates at the next election.

The party (although doing well in the polls) are actually at a crossroads. Farage knows to make the extra leap he has to come up with policies rather than dog whistle populist statements. This is already causing issues internally and the sort of independent media that have been supportive are today starting to ask serious questions about the "new" direction.

Cummings is clearly briefing Farage behind the scenes, but he is hell bent on destroying the Tories without an eye on how a move away from "populism" will destroy Reform too.

My money is on the Tories dumping Badenoch, overtaking Reform in the polls and giving Labour a good fight at the next election.

This is what the Tories do in opposition, make a mistake with the leader and eventually get it right. This time I'm not convinced they will allow a general election to tell them.

It’s also events dear boy, events isnt it?

Farage and Reform would do well to simply keep quiet over the next few years, as it would appear that Labour have not learnt a single thing about Tory ineptitude particularly whilst Starmer was at the wheel in opposition.

I’ll conceived policy failures, corrective U turns, economical mismanagement, tax rises, public sector strikes and non existent border controls make this Labour administration feel like continuity Tories.

Add in the mystifying Chagos deal, as another chapter of a never ending budget for foreign causes whilst squeezing the U.K. taxpayer and its easy to understand why Labour are tanking at the polls.

Plus, we are still waiting for the Ukrainian friends of Dorothy bomb to detonate, which even a new Hermes handbag for Victoria won’t solve, and that is likely to mean leadership of the U.K. will pass to “up the spout at 16” Ange.

She could usher in a time when people look back fondly on the charismatic leadership of Starmer.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I'm not sure Reform's core base do tactical voting as neither do the Tories.

They don't respond to that sort of campaigning. They will also struggle to get competent candidates at the next election.

The party (although doing well in the polls) are actually at a crossroads. Farage knows to make the extra leap he has to come up with policies rather than dog whistle populist statements. This is already causing issues internally and the sort of independent media that have been supportive are today starting to ask serious questions about the "new" direction.

Cummings is clearly briefing Farage behind the scenes, but he is hell bent on destroying the Tories without an eye on how a move away from "populism" will destroy Reform too.

My money is on the Tories dumping Badenoch, overtaking Reform in the polls and giving Labour a good fight at the next election.

This is what the Tories do in opposition, make a mistake with the leader and eventually get it right. This time I'm not convinced they will allow a general election to tell them.

Really?

Another leadership election makes them look even more of a laughing stock.

Who are the Tories going to choose?

 

[Brovion]

The whole thing is a confidence trick based on weasel words. There was the stuff a couple of weeks ago about “cutting wasted spending” which turned out to be a blanket 5% budget cut.

The problem with ripping apart Reform’s economic plans is that the other parties are no better in that regard.

The people turning to Reform aren’t doing so for their fiscal competence and are unlikely to be dissuaded by an in-depth technical argument. For most of them, it’s about how they feel about the world around them and their place/experience within it.

You're right, but It's quite a feat though. Farage is managing to be Liz Truss and Jeremy Corbyn at the same time.

 

[nicko31]

Really?

Another leadership election makes them look even more of a laughing stock.

Who are the Tories going to choose?

They might have to go through a couple more leaders, Badenock was never a long term bet. Maybe Jenrick next and then a realisation the only way back is towards the centre. Cleverly is biding his time

The LD's could do even more damage in the southern Tory shires, in places like Surrey, Bucks and Oxon there's little appetite for the brain dead politics of Reform (Trump-lite)