[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

Get on the Google machine. If it's available you'll find it. Although as already has been pointed out a 15 year prediction is a bit ambitious/absurd and would include numerous caveats as so much can change in this amount of time.

Wise words HT, absurd indeed.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Wise words HT, absurd indeed.

But as 5ways pointed out, assessing the likely effect of making a specific adjustment is much easier than making an over-arching prediction - I don't know how much money I will have in ten years' time but I can reasonably predict how much more I will have if I stop going to away matches.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The Jackboot.

"The European Union is threatening Hungary with massive fines and court action if it does not change direction over the acceptance of the EU forced migrant relocation scheme, and a number of other areas the Commission has deemed unsatisfactory.
The latest infringement procedures — the escalating response of the European Commission against member states who fail to fall into line — deals with the treatment of Roma gypsy children in Hungary’s schools, and farming laws.


Although farming may seem like an odd flashpoint for a nation which has shot to prominence for their no-nonsense approach to the migrant crisis, the government’s reforms aimed at preventing foreigners from buying up vast swathes of farmland have been front page news in the country for months. The Commission contends by restricting ownership of farmland to the people who actually farm it, the Hungarian government is being discriminatory toward the citizens of other EU countries.


The Hungarian government on the other hand is working to keep land affordable for Hungarians by keeping out big-money foreign buyers."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/28/eu-threatens-hungary-treatment-gypsies-migrants/

Are you sure that Breitbart is the sort of friend the Leave campaign needs? It's a little like Fox News but less liberal, in favour of Trump, cynical about climate change and, when I looked today, furious with Obama for not being nasty to the Japanese. It also, naturally, loathes the European Union.

 

[sir albion]

I really thought this figure £4300, which was plucked out the sky as a "forecast" for 14 years ahead, was nipped in the bud as bullsh1t many pages ago.
Seems that some are still trying to regurgitate it.

All these figures are guesses and how much did each family lose when we had our 3 recessions while in the EU as I bet it wasn't that much even during super tough times.
This country has stagnant wages and seriously high living costs and a disaster looms anyway as poverty will increase at a rate of knots....this while we're in an apparent boom period,something clearly is wrong in the country.

 

[Soulman]

Are you sure that Breitbart is the sort of friend the Leave campaign needs? It's a little like Fox News but less liberal, in favour of Trump, cynical about climate change and, when I looked today, furious with Obama for not being nasty to the Japanese. It also, naturally, loathes the European Union.

Why should Breitbart not be a friend of the Leave campaign. The Leave campaign does not have the clout media wise of the Remain. I suspect you would rather the Leave campaign had silent support........ " It's a little like" lots of media (dodgy) supporting the Remain campaign.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

But as 5ways pointed out, assessing the likely effect of making a specific adjustment is much easier than making an over-arching prediction - I don't know how much money I will have in ten years' time but I can reasonably predict how much more I will have if I stop going to away matches.

It is a forecast that makes numerous convenient assumptions like there are no economic costs associated with EU membership (regulations?) and that we wouldn't strike any trade deals with other countries in 15 years ... HT is right, absurd.

 

[larus]

But as 5ways pointed out, assessing the likely effect of making a specific adjustment is much easier than making an over-arching prediction - I don't know how much money I will have in ten years' time but I can reasonably predict how much more I will have if I stop going to away matches.

No you don't. Too many unknowns could happen. You could meet a fellow Brighton fan at an away game, strike up a good friendship, end up going into business and being successful which transforms your life.

The same logic applies to BREXIT. We don't know what new business/trading opportunities may lead to; what new freedoms may do to liberating creativity within the population.

 

[5ways]

Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron

This seems overwhelming - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron

A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.

The economists were also overwhelmingly pessimistic about the long-term economic impact of leaving the EU and the single market. Some 72% said that a vote to leave would most likely have a negative impact on growth for 10-20 years.

The main reasons cited by economists as to why the UK would suffer were “loss of access to the single market” (67%) and “increased uncertainty leading to reduced investment” (66%). The leading Leave campaigner Michael Gove has said Britain should leave the single market as well as the EU.

 

[Maldini]

Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron

This seems overwhelming - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron

A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.

The economists were also overwhelmingly pessimistic about the long-term economic impact of leaving the EU and the single market. Some 72% said that a vote to leave would most likely have a negative impact on growth for 10-20 years.

The main reasons cited by economists as to why the UK would suffer were “loss of access to the single market” (67%) and “increased uncertainty leading to reduced investment” (66%). The leading Leave campaigner Michael Gove has said Britain should leave the single market as well as the EU.

For us Leave voters we couldn't give a --------. Remain voters want to sell out Britain.They are willing to trash the UK so long as their greedy slimey little palms have more money to grab hold of.For us on the Leave side we are more principled than that.

 

[GT49er]

Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron

This seems overwhelming - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron

A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.

The economists were also overwhelmingly pessimistic about the long-term economic impact of leaving the EU and the single market. Some 72% said that a vote to leave would most likely have a negative impact on growth for 10-20 years.

The main reasons cited by economists as to why the UK would suffer were “loss of access to the single market” (67%) and “increased uncertainty leading to reduced investment” (66%). The leading Leave campaigner Michael Gove has said Britain should leave the single market as well as the EU.

Yes, we've had the economic argument for long enough, thank you. It's a sad, tired argument and it's all the remainers have got. And it's not good enough!

Speculative or not, it doesn't recognise the fact that economics, and the wealth of the City and shareholders' dividends isn't the be-all and end-all of everything. Even if Brexit means a few quid off the average household income (if that is what actually happens - the one certain economic forecast is that the rate of income tax will rise (and yes, I do believe Osbourne and co. are spiteful enough to 'punish' us if we thwart their plans and vote Brexit) - that still would be a price worth paying for freeing our wonderful country from the dead hand of the EU.

 

[GT49er]

Duplicate post.

......but, as an afterthought re: other arguments put forward for reaining in the EU -

* We don't believe Brexit would cause World War III
* We don't believe 'the EU can be 'reformed from within'
* We don't believe Spain will annex Gibraltar
* We don't believe we can control immigration by remaining in the EU (330,000 ring a bell as the latest figure?)

 

[Hampster Gull]

Yes, we've had the economic argument for long enough, thank you. It's a sad, tired argument and it's all the remainers have got. And it's not good enough!

Speculative or not, it doesn't recognise the fact that economics, and the wealth of the City and shareholders' dividends isn't the be-all and end-all of everything. Even if Brexit means a few quid off the average household income (if that is what actually happens - the one certain economic forecast is that the rate of income tax will rise (and yes, I do believe Osbourne and co. are spiteful enough to 'punish' us if we thwart their plans and vote Brexit) - that still would be a price worth paying for freeing our wonderful country from the dead hand of the EU.

And what exactly do you think Corbyn or Borris will do as leaders of our "freed" country?

 

[Maldini]

RIP this Britain: With academic objectivity, Oxford Professor and population expert DAVID COLEMAN says white Britons could be in the minority by the 2060s - or sooner


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oner-current-immigration-trends-continue.html

'If immigration is not substantially reduced, the country will be transformed out of recognition by the consequences of a very large population increase: schools, housing, environment, the make-up of the people of Britain, all will change in ways in which no one has been consulted and few want.
The coming referendum will not of itself resolve the issue. But it might offer the beginning of the end of an otherwise inexorable change'

 

[GT49er]

And what exactly do you think Corbyn or Borris will do as leaders of our "freed" country?

That's a question to be decided by a free Britain at a general election - assuming either of them are in a position to be voted in for anything. A question that is entirely irrelevant to this debate.

It's as stupid as asking what will Jean-Claude Juncker do for Britain (if we vote to give him carte-blanche on June 23rd.).

 

[beorhthelm]

Here is another herring.

Isn't a forecast for 2030 absurd, since economic forecasts for even two years ahead fail?

This is to misunderstand the exercise the Treasury has carried out. As stated, the Treasury is estimating the difference between two possible futures on the basis of a decision regarding Britain’s trading relationship. That does not require accurate forecasts, just a good understanding of the effect of trade on prosperity.

It is the same as saying, “We do not know how heavy you will be in 15 years, but if you drink a bottle of cola a day, we are pretty sure you will be fatter than if you keep off the sugar.”

Alternatively: “We do not know when you will die, but are pretty sure it will be earlier if you maintain your 20-a-day cigarette habit.”

the problem is that their forecast assumes no positive effects of exiting the constraints of the EU, no changes to law, regulations or trade with the rest of the world. its like saying you'll be fatter in 15 years because you drink a bottle of coke a day, but not accounting for cutting out chocolate and buscuits and taking up swimming. secondly, is the massivly deceitful presentation, conjuring up this metric of GDP per household, exaggerating the effect for the ordinary person.

its peculiar because many on the remain side would normally criticise Osborne and his policy and forecasts all day long, particularly around austerity, but they have just signed up to his version of how the economy needs to be run for the next few years. one would think they'd be a little more reserved in their support, but apparently staying in the EU is more important than anything else.

 

[Hampster Gull]

That's a question to be decided by a free Britain.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

For us Leave voters we couldn't give a --------. Remain voters want to sell out Britain.They are willing to trash the UK so long as their greedy slimey little palms have more money to grab hold of.For us on the Leave side we are more principled than that.

Meanwhile, I have one or two friends who support Brexit and I respect their positions, as they respect mine. And you've spelt slimy wrongly.

 

[Steve in Japan]

RIP this Britain: With academic objectivity, Oxford Professor and population expert DAVID COLEMAN says white Britons could be in the minority by the 2060s - or sooner


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oner-current-immigration-trends-continue.html

'If immigration is not substantially reduced, the country will be transformed out of recognition by the consequences of a very large population increase: schools, housing, environment, the make-up of the people of Britain, all will change in ways in which no one has been consulted and few want.
The coming referendum will not of itself resolve the issue. But it might offer the beginning of the end of an otherwise inexorable change'

The migration pattern is very clear and even Cameron is not denying it. He deems it a price worth paying for economic growth.

So there's a large part of the referendum choice laid bare. Vote Brexit if you want to try and address the immigration question (and I say try because it won't be easy). OR vote Bremain if you accept unlimited immigration and prefer chasing GDP growth.

Whichever way the vote goes, people can't later say "I didn't realise".

 

[gregbrighton]

I think the Remain In will win quite comfortably.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I think the Remain In will win quite comfortably.

If you're right it's only because we're all slimy *******s with no balls.