[News] 2030 and Electric cars.

[Braggfan]

the problem is we are driving forward on an assumption that technology change will happen. there are other drivers of course, environment etc, but this may likely be a case that an advance reduces utility. battery tech hasnt really moved for decades, there are physical constraints to overcome, Lithium made a big change at the small form end but doesnt scale (Tesla batteries are hundred of them strung together), charging speed is limited, power availability overlooked. there is a common view that through money and sheer willpower the problems will be solved. some of them may not, and if they can be it would take longer than the 10yr deadline being given. we havent rolled out smart meters in 10 yrs, i dont see how domestic electric systems will be uprated for example.

Yes I agree 'technological will change happen' is just an assumption, and a pretty big assumption. I think if that happens though that it will drive the assoicated tech development.

I understand what you say about the view that we just assume money and will power willl solve problems, but I don't think that's an assumption, i think it already happens all the time. Take the Co-vid vaccination for example. It didn't exist a year ago, the pandemic happened and companies were insturcted to create something that didn't exist. How do you do that? It's a crazy notion. But it was achieved because there was incredible will power from goverments seeking a solution combined with incredible investment. If those things are in place solutions do get found, particualrly in areas where you're not starting from scratch, where existing tech can be developed or improved upon.

But it brings us back to the big question from that that big assumption we agree on . Will the technology change happen that sees electric cars become the major driving force (pun intended)?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Will certainly consider an ev next time round but the prices will need to have come down as they seem prohibitively expensive at the moment.
Petrol Corsa range is £16k to £26k, Corse-e range starts at £30k
Kia Niro petrol is £24k to £32k, e-Niro is £32k to £40k
that needs sorting before most folk can afford to actually buy one.

...plus there needs to be a large second hand market ...for the likes of me who dont buy new...around 6k tops please!

 

[beorhthelm]

...plus there needs to be a large second hand market ...for the likes of me who dont buy new...around 6k tops please!

often overlooked in the EV discussion, currently there wont be the linear tiers of second hand filtering down. see all comments about recycling batteries, they go out of the EV ecosystem, so thats a major cost, along with expensive design/process to have changeable batteries. we'll buy new on finance, maybe one tier of 2nd hand, then recycle. the car manufacturers love this prospect.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

As someone interested in renewables and EVs, reading from the start of this thread, I was getting increasingly annoyed at the level of incorrect information being put out as facts relating to EVs and the charging infrastructure. I was planning to 'wade' in to correct some of these, but then I came across this reply by [MENTION=33374]Audax[/MENTION]

Never has THIS been more appropriate. Well done.

I've walked down terraced streets in London (Baker Street surrounding area) and seen plenty of electric cars being charged without running extensions from the house (although I saw some of that too...). There's been work done converting the street lamps to also carry EV charging points.

EV batteries are already very recyclable. Most of them, once they're no longer fit for car use, are refurbished and repurposed to provide on-site battery power. For example, an awful lot of the "home battery" products for those with solar panels are actually refurbished car batteries. Those that can't be refurbished and given a second life get broken down and the core materials recovered for building new batteries. I think it's VW who are very near to rolling out a new battery recycling process where they can recover the vast majority of the battery materials for making new batteries.

For the Model S. The Model 3 is closer to £41k. Still steep, granted, but Tesla are the market leader and can charge a premium as a result.

They're coming down, and coming down quick, although a lot of the price reduction is being hidden because it's tied to the quality of the battery. The cost of an EV battery per kWh in 2010 was over 1000 Euros. It's now down to around 140 Euros as of last year and constantly coming down. Thing is, when it comes to the car you drive off the dealer's lot you aren't seeing most of that reduction in the headline price because at the moment the benefit is instead going into increasing the range.

As an example, the original 2013 Renault Zoe shipped with a 22kWh battery and a real world range of under 100 miles. The latest Zoe ships with a 52kWh battery and real world range closer to 200 miles. In less than 10 years battery tech has come far enough that a) the batteries are cheaper and b) more than twice as good for EV use. Within the next 5 years we should see the next generation of batteries becoming available, and the talk is these will be much quicker to charge and capable of driving ranges around 500 miles.




Dead right, especially that first sentence. There's multiple different next-generation battery technologies nearing production (eg replacing graphite with graphene, and after that there should be lithium-silicon battery breakthroughs within the next 5 years), so I think by the time we get to 2030 we'll be looking at EV vehicles with similar - possibly better - range to current ICE vehicles, at a cost price that is far more affordable. And, as EV usage in those who can afford to buy now increases, and those who already committed then move into the next generation vehicles, you'll see those less well off will be able to pick up decent second hand EV's.




Not sure where you've heard this, but a lot of it is wrong. From what I've seen, the rumours were started because Tesla production was outstripping their ability to store the cars at their factory, so they began storing Model 3's that were coming off the production line in massive parking lots. Beyond that, what you say about the batteries is completely false: EV batteries are actually easily recycled. Many get refurbished and repurposed as on-site power storage (eg Home battery), others get broken down and the component materials used to build new batteries. As the technology is driven forwards, it's getting cleaner and cleaner. What we have today isn't perfect, but the next 10 years is going to see rapid development (heck, the last 10 years has already seen massive strides forward and it's accelerating still).

 

[227 BHA]

Just acquired Mercedes CLA250e and very pleased. It is rather like driving a laptop but, once you get used to it, a very good car. I use electric solely for local journeys (max 30-35 mile battery range) and eco or comfort modes for longer. Shocked by the complexity of a) finding public charging points that work (my nearest is in Dorchester, 17 miles way, the Bridport one has been out of action for months);

b) the hassle of getting a wall charger at home. BP Chargemaster can't install if it means the engineer has to go higher than the first step on a step ladder. It is a joke, so my OLEV grant will be wasted on paying an electrician to get a cable to the point where the engineer with vertigo can get to it.

We had a look at the GLA250e and were very tempted but have now decided to hang fire and wait for the the fully electric EQA which is due out in 2021 and see what the prices are

 

[Audax]

Personally, I think part of the shift towards EVs also needs to be a shift away from big SUVs. It pisses me off how many people buy big 4x4's and then use them as local town commuters / school run vehicles.

At the small car end of the market, I'm really keen to see how VW go with their new ID range. ID.3 is priced in the same ballpark as the Zoe, but better specs all round (bigger battery, better performance, better range, more interior space etc). I'm a little bit regretting committing to my Zoe back in the summer, but at the time the ID.3 wasn't fully nailed in for price / release date in the UK and I *thought* I was going to be asked back to the office in September. Not too big a regret, though - the Zoe is a 4 year lease, as I'm fully expecting there to be far better options available by the time the lease is done so plan is to ditch the Zoe and replace with whatever is best for me at the time (and the Zoe will be in good condition for someone else to pick up second hand).

I may be a little early, but I'm hoping that next EV in 4 years time will be the one that I then stick with long term.

 

[Audax]

Yes I agree 'technological will change happen' is just an assumption, and a pretty big assumption. I think if that happens though that it will drive the assoicated tech development.

I understand what you say about the view that we just assume money and will power willl solve problems, but I don't think that's an assumption, i think it already happens all the time. Take the Co-vid vaccination for example. It didn't exist a year ago, the pandemic happened and companies were insturcted to create something that didn't exist. How do you do that? It's a crazy notion. But it was achieved because there was incredible will power from goverments seeking a solution combined with incredible investment. If those things are in place solutions do get found, particualrly in areas where you're not starting from scratch, where existing tech can be developed or improved upon.

But it brings us back to the big question from that that big assumption we agree on . Will the technology change happen that sees electric cars become the major driving force (pun intended)?

The tech changes are coming. They're already jumping forward at pace - just look at how much cheaper each "kWh" of battery is today compared to what it was in 2010. That's technology moving forward. We're still in the early phase ... for those old enough to have grown up in the 80's and 90's, EV tech is currently in a similar phase to what computer CPUs were going through back then. Our first home computer was an Amstrad 6128. Look at where we are now.

CPU tech hit a tipping point at a time when it was already advancing rapidly, but then cost dropped low enough that having a home PC was becoming affordable to more and more people. Once that happened, investment went up, the tech advance accelerated, and with each passing year more and more breakthroughs were made. We now walk around with computers in our pockets.

The same will happen with EVs, especially if governments get behind it. We may see that tipping reached in the next 5 years. Arguably, it may already be starting (look at what VW are doing launching their ID range, and the impact the Tesla Model 3 has had). The Model 3 moved the goalposts in the right direction in the "premium" small family car market. The VW ID.3 is doing the same thing in the hatchback market. If VW improve the ID.3 at the same pace that Renault improved the Zoe, then we're looking at EV's that are more than capable of achieving what the government wants for 2030 and beyond.

Competition in the new EV car market is growing. That's going to result in beneficial change for us on the street. I expect the ID.3 is going to give Renault cause for concern and the 4th gen Zoe will have to be both better (longer range, better performance) *and* cheaper - I'd not be surprised if the next Zoe is 300+ mile range and moves down towards the £25k-ish price band from its current £30k-ish.

 

[Braggfan]

The tech changes are coming. They're already jumping forward at pace - just look at how much cheaper each "kWh" of battery is today compared to what it was in 2010. That's technology moving forward. We're still in the early phase ... for those old enough to have grown up in the 80's and 90's, EV tech is currently in a similar phase to what computer CPUs were going through back then. Our first home computer was an Amstrad 6128. Look at where we are now.

CPU tech hit a tipping point at a time when it was already advancing rapidly, but then cost dropped low enough that having a home PC was becoming affordable to more and more people. Once that happened, investment went up, the tech advance accelerated, and with each passing year more and more breakthroughs were made. We now walk around with computers in our pockets.

The same will happen with EVs, especially if governments get behind it. We may see that tipping reached in the next 5 years. Arguably, it may already be starting (look at what VW are doing launching their ID range, and the impact the Tesla Model 3 has had). The Model 3 moved the goalposts in the right direction in the "premium" small family car market. The VW ID.3 is doing the same thing in the hatchback market. If VW improve the ID.3 at the same pace that Renault improved the Zoe, then we're looking at EV's that are more than capable of achieving what the government wants for 2030 and beyond.

Competition in the new EV car market is growing. That's going to result in beneficial change for us on the street. I expect the ID.3 is going to give Renault cause for concern and the 4th gen Zoe will have to be both better (longer range, better performance) *and* cheaper - I'd not be surprised if the next Zoe is 300+ mile range and moves down towards the £25k-ish price band from its current £30k-ish.

I agree I think the tech changes are coming. I think the changes that are being made at a governmental level are indidications in a culture shift that has also been coming, and it will only see the level of investment in the tech increase aswell. A previous poster said that it might take 20 years, but I really think we'll see big changes in the next ten.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Personally, I think part of the shift towards EVs also needs to be a shift away from big SUVs. It pisses me off how many people buy big 4x4's and then use them as local town commuters / school run vehicles.

At the small car end of the market, I'm really keen to see how VW go with their new ID range. ID.3 is priced in the same ballpark as the Zoe, but better specs all round (bigger battery, better performance, better range, more interior space etc). I'm a little bit regretting committing to my Zoe back in the summer, but at the time the ID.3 wasn't fully nailed in for price / release date in the UK and I *thought* I was going to be asked back to the office in September. Not too big a regret, though - the Zoe is a 4 year lease, as I'm fully expecting there to be far better options available by the time the lease is done so plan is to ditch the Zoe and replace with whatever is best for me at the time (and the Zoe will be in good condition for someone else to pick up second hand).

I may be a little early, but I'm hoping that next EV in 4 years time will be the one that I then stick with long term.

Other peoples choice of car offends you?

Wow.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Sure go for greener forms of travel,but surely would it not be better to wait for a developed self charging car rather than dig up the roads,pavements etc for charging points and the cost/chaos that will will cause in urban areas and remember if you live in a rural area and across the world that effects millions you simply can't have charging points every 200 yards.

You're aware that an EV charging network already exists and is growing all the time, right?

Who said anything about digging up the roads? Longer term, as fewer people use ICE-powered cars, existing fuel stations – as they are now, in some cases – will simply be converted to have electric chargers instead of pumps. That, coupled with faster charging times and increased mileage ranges in new models – to stop people worrying about 'range anxiety' – will negate a lot of the issues that people have with EVs.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I wonder if in 50 or 60 years time a new generation of young woke people (or whatever they call themselves by then) will be cursing the stupid old buffers of the 2020s who instigated this compulsory drive to electric vehicles. Maybe they'll have discovered that electric cars, like nuclear power stations, are easy enough to build, deliver what they were designed to do economically and efficiently - but then prove to be difficult, expensive, frequently hazardous and generally a bit of a bugger to decommission and generally dispose of safely .................

........ or maybe they'll be lucky, and the 2020s green supporters will have got it right. Oh well, in 50 or 60 years it won't be my problem! Do genuinely fear for my grandchildren at times though.

........ or maybe electric cars (and all the charging points) will be the new Betamax.

Young people

 

[neilbard]

"pfft, I don't know what all the fuss is about, this is the future"

 

[Audax]

Other peoples choice of car offends you?

When that choice is so detrimental to our environment, yes. I have no problem with farmers / rural drivers owning 4x4's as they often need them. When it comes to the guy across the road from me where it only gets used for the grocery run and a smaller, more efficient, less costly vehicle would happily do the job? Then yeah, I have a problem with that. I wouldn't say it offends me, though - more that it annoys me that so many people make what I firmly believe to be poor choices when it comes to the vehicle they buy, especially given what we know about the damage they do to both local and global environment.

Does it annoy me enough to mention it to the guy across the road? No, it doesn't. But I'll be the first to congratulate him when he eventually makes the change over to something more sensible (whether that's forced by government or his own choice).

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

When that choice is so detrimental to our environment, yes. I have no problem with farmers / rural drivers owning 4x4's as they often need them. When it comes to the guy across the road from me where it only gets used for the grocery run and a smaller, more efficient, less costly vehicle would happily do the job? Then yeah, I have a problem with that. I wouldn't say it offends me, though - more that it annoys me that so many people make what I firmly believe to be poor choices when it comes to the vehicle they buy, especially given what we know about the damage they do to both local and global environment.

Does it annoy me enough to mention it to the guy across the road? No, it doesn't. But I'll be the first to congratulate him when he eventually makes the change over to something more sensible (whether that's forced by government or his own choice).

I drive a Tiguan which is an SUV because of the driving position, for the simple reason that after having my knee replaced, sitting in anything other that an SUV leaves me in a great deal of discomfort.


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[beorhthelm]

The tech changes are coming. They're already jumping forward at pace - just look at how much cheaper each "kWh" of battery is today compared to what it was in 2010. That's technology moving forward. We're still in the early phase ... for those old enough to have grown up in the 80's and 90's, EV tech is currently in a similar phase to what computer CPUs were going through back then. Our first home computer was an Amstrad 6128. Look at where we are now.

CPU tech hit a tipping point at a time when it was already advancing rapidly, but then cost dropped low enough that having a home PC was becoming affordable to more and more people. Once that happened, investment went up, the tech advance accelerated, and with each passing year more and more breakthroughs were made. We now walk around with computers in our pockets.

admire the faith, though the comparison to CPU highlights the flawed thinking. CPU core architecture hasnt changed much in many decades, computational improvements come from miniaturisation and parallelisation. there is only so far you can go with either without hitting another wall. it takes many years for pipeline of tech to go from lab to production and a few more to cost efficient. EV and batteries seem to have no such pipeline, just lots of ideas and promising tech, and nasty physics barriers. saw earlier post how range have doubled in capacity in a decade (Zoe), in CPU performace was doubling every 2 years, so thats another major difference. cant keep pointing to other tech and saying "they did it so EV will", look at how the ICE hasnt improved much over a longer period.

 

[brightn'ove]

Imagine living in a block of flats in a large city ( not all flats have underground car parks).....or terraced housing where you have to park 1/2 mile away......you going to need a long extension lead....

Extremely unlikely you would need a car living in such circumstances.

 

[Audax]

I drive a Tiguan which is an SUV because of the driving position, for the simple reason that after having my knee replaced, sitting in anything other that an SUV leaves me in a great deal of discomfort.

Which is fine - you've got a genuine need, so go for it.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Read the thread with a lot of interest, not least because I was involved with designing battery charging system when Lithium-Ion cells first hit the market.

Firstly a move from petrol/diesel is a no brainier. What to is the question and almost as importantly how we transition to the replacement.

At present Lithium batteries are 50% recyclable unfortunely the electrolyte isn’t and is in the category of ‘****ing toxic’ and is particularly nasty when mixed with water. How we dispose of the electrolyte is going to be a really big issue. If it gets into the water table ......

Lithium (if that is what we go with) is widely available but isn’t easy to extract. The environmental impacts are not fully understood and are unlikely to be for a number of years.

Safety - batteries are ****ing dangerous if not stored, cared for or disposed of properly. We’ve all seen clips of mobile phones going bang ....
One cell used in the Model 3 has a spec of 4.8Ah which means using the correct load it will discharge 4.8A in 60 minutes. Discharge over 30minutes is 9.6A etc. At short circuit it will be >300Amps (instantaneous energy). In reality the cell will burst in flames or explode. I know as I deliberately short circuited a number of cells? There are over 18,000 of these cells in a power unit. The point is that there is a massive amount of instant energy sat in the back of your car. That’s why the acceleration is immense! The safety systems in place should remove any issues of explosions but if you have an accident and need to cut someone out of a car you need to watch where you cut ...

Saying all of that petrol/diesel cars are not the future. Personally I think the infrastructure issues will be much worse than we envisage mainly because successive governments couldn’t organise a piss up in brewery, as present circumstances show.
How do you charge a car if you live in a flat with no parking, or a house with no off street parking? How many streets will you need to dig up?

Electric vehicles for vans and lorries are not going to be practical in 10years however I think in this case a hybrid solution will be used. A small petrol engine to trickle charge in conjunction with energy capture systems from breaking etc.
The other option is hydrogen cells which in environmental terms is clearly the best option as water is readily available but not nearly as many people will get rich as they will do with electric cells. However the issue of safety is still there as hydrogen isn’t the most inert of gases ....

This is really only scratching the surface.


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[jessiejames]

Read the thread with a lot of interest, not least because I was involved with designing battery charging system when Lithium-Ion cells first hit the market.

Firstly a move from petrol/diesel is a no brainier. What to is the question and almost as importantly how we transition to the replacement.

At present Lithium batteries are 50% recyclable unfortunely the electrolyte isn’t and is in the category of ‘****ing toxic’ and is particularly nasty when mixed with water. How we dispose of the electrolyte is going to be a really big issue. If it gets into the water table ......

Lithium (if that is what we go with) is widely available but isn’t easy to extract. The environmental impacts are not fully understood and are unlikely to be for a number of years.

Safety - batteries are ****ing dangerous if not stored, cared for or disposed of properly. We’ve all seen clips of mobile phones going bang ....
One cell used in the Model 3 has a spec of 4.8Ah which means using the correct load it will discharge 4.8A in 60 minutes. Discharge over 30minutes is 9.6A etc. At short circuit it will be >300Amps (instantaneous energy). In reality the cell will burst in flames or explode. I know as I deliberately short circuited a number of cells? There are over 18,000 of these cells in a power unit. The point is that there is a massive amount of instant energy sat in the back of your car. That’s why the acceleration is immense! The safety systems in place should remove any issues of explosions but if you have an accident and need to cut someone out of a car you need to watch where you cut ...

Saying all of that petrol/diesel cars are not the future. Personally I think the infrastructure issues will be much worse than we envisage mainly because successive governments couldn’t organise a piss up in brewery, as present circumstances show.
How do you charge a car if you live in a flat with no parking, or a house with no off street parking? How many streets will you need to dig up?

Electric vehicles for vans and lorries are not going to be practical in 10years however I think in this case a hybrid solution will be used. A small petrol engine to trickle charge in conjunction with energy capture systems from breaking etc.
The other option is hydrogen cells which in environmental terms is clearly the best option as water is readily available but not nearly as many people will get rich as they will do with electric cells. However the issue of safety is still there as hydrogen isn’t the most inert of gases ....

This is really only scratching the surface.


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I think it will e along time before we have electric lorries.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

I think it will e along time before we have electric lorries.

I’m not sure that it will be physically possible.


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