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[News] 2030 and Electric cars.

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Braggfan

Members
May 12, 2014
1,637
I think the issues over charging will change dramatically over the next ten years. Probably more than a lot of us can really conceive at the moment.

When something becomes the dominant product in it’s industry, technology can be developed very quickly because there is so much investment in it. For example in the space of ten years, mobile phones went from a brick that a few people had, to internet using, music playing , picture taking phone that everyone on the planet had. The world is changing and if the electric cars over take petrol and diesel cars then I would expect big changes, and we won’t be confined by todays constraints.

There was an interesting article doing the rounds a few months back. https://www.energylivenews.com/2020...lear-waste-that-could-last-up-to-28000-years/

I’m not saying this is on the cards anytime soon or that it will work/take off, but it illustrates that big industries are seriously looking out revolutionary solutions at the moment and people are looking to cash in on that. That’s the sort of scenario that can push big changes through.
 
Jul 24, 2007
9,559
Arundel
surely electrical charging bays at garages would be more sensible , along with car owners having them installed at their houses .........quite a few of my mates have teslas , they are wicked bits of kit and fast as ****.

The digital world will provide a solution, think about JustPark, if you'd said to someone twenty years ago you could get £10-£20 a day allowing someone to park on your drive they'd have laughed. You watch the Apple HomeCharge Pod that will come out so I can pull up on someone's drive, having booked a slot on line, using a map of the UK with thousands of Pod locations, you drip in a 30 minute charge, you make a little more than the electric costs and Apple make billions ..... sound familiar?
 

RandyWanger

Je suis rôti de boeuf
Mar 14, 2013
5,223
Done a Frexit, now in London
I've heard of Tesla graveyards in the US where a lot of the issues they've had with the cars can't be fixed economically and cars are being written off. The batteries can't be recycled and a lot of the composites and bonding agents used in manufacturing is toxic. I'm not sure we'll ever see a Tesla made today, still going strong in 50 years time like my old little Datsun.
 

nwgull

Members
Jul 25, 2003
12,304
Manchester
I've got an electric car. It is fantastic and has a 250 mile range so long journeys aren't an issue as I'd rarely drive more than about 150 miles without taking a break anyway.

Charging infrastructure isn't going to be an issue - the UK has electricity everywhere. I've started seeing charge points pop up in car parks for flats and many public car parks have them. Within 10 years charge points will be all over the place.
 

Springal

Members
Feb 12, 2005
21,270
GOSBTS
The digital world will provide a solution, think about JustPark, if you'd said to someone twenty years ago you could get £10-£20 a day allowing someone to park on your drive they'd have laughed. You watch the Apple HomeCharge Pod that will come out so I can pull up on someone's drive, having booked a slot on line, using a map of the UK with thousands of Pod locations, you drip in a 30 minute charge, you make a little more than the electric costs and Apple make billions ..... sound familiar?

Indeed. All of these negative doom mongers are hilarious. Luckily most of them are just internet keyboard warriors leaving trying to progress things in this world for the better
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
33,667
I think the issues over charging will change dramatically over the next ten years. Probably more than a lot of us can really conceive at the moment.

When something becomes the dominant product in it’s industry, technology can be developed very quickly because there is so much investment in it. For example in the space of ten years, mobile phones went from a brick that a few people had, to internet using, music playing , picture taking phone that everyone on the planet had. The world is changing and if the electric cars over take petrol and diesel cars then I would expect big changes, and we won’t be confined by todays constraints.

more like 20 years, and the real advance of phones came about at a confluence of decades of improvements in LED display tech and processor miniaturisation.

a problem with the assumption we'll just find tech solution is often innovations dont scale outside the labs, either in production or economics. or in case of a nuclear power supply, politics.
 

Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,306
Uckfield
Just acquired Mercedes CLA250e and very pleased. It is rather like driving a laptop but, once you get used to it, a very good car. I use electric solely for local journeys (max 30-35 mile battery range) and eco or comfort modes for longer. Shocked by the complexity of a) finding public charging points that work (my nearest is in Dorchester, 17 miles way, the Bridport one has been out of action for months);

b) the hassle of getting a wall charger at home. BP Chargemaster can't install if it means the engineer has to go higher than the first step on a step ladder. It is a joke, so my OLEV grant will be wasted on paying an electrician to get a cable to the point where the engineer with vertigo can get to it.

If you aren't already committed - avoid BP Chargemaster. Their wall box is really basic, and it requires an earthing rod. If your installation location isn't suitable for earthing for any reason, they won't be any use to you at all. You don't need to spend much more to get a local supplier to sort you out with something better. Mostly because that BP engineer with vertigo charges like a wounded bull for their time, so unless you're getting free installation provided with the car you'll be far better off doing your research and getting something else.

I used a local Uckfield business (VoltEV) and had a Myenergi Zappi installed (I've got solar panels so can make good use of it, but even without the solar it's a great piece of kit). Was £625 fully installed, including additional hardware because my fusebox was full so needed an isolator, and I've got the added benefit that the app that comes with it gives me far better electric usage tracking for the house than the governments smart meters do.
 

Cian

Members
Jul 16, 2003
14,258
Dublin, Ireland
surely would it not be better to wait for a developed self charging car

The "self-charging" term used by Toyota/Lexus just means its a hybrid that generates all its electrical power from an onboard engine. Its not an electric car. They're beginning to have all subsidies and emission zone rights taken off them in various countries too.


Maxus (me neither..) at £53k+vat. :mad:

An old LDV tarted up

It is at least the last, modern LDV not a Freightrover Sherpa in drag.




I've had a 40kW Leaf as a company vehicle for a time this year and given it back for a diesel Honda - its a very nice car to drive; but with no chargers in the office (difficult landlord) and no charger at home (no subsidy when its a fleet vehicle and I'm not paying for it) it was impossible to actually use; and if there hadn't been a pandemic on I would probably have had to queue for fast chargers on the way to/from the office for the two to three charges it needed a week.

I do miss the no gearbox and smooth drive on urban roads, though.
 

Springal

Members
Feb 12, 2005
21,270
GOSBTS
So all I can see is that we have discovered who all of the well off people are on here.
Diesel van for me as I don't earn a fortune.

In the UK you can get good tax relief as a business owner on electric vehicles so that can be a big factor to. I know lots of business owners with Teslas for that reason
 

Springal

Members
Feb 12, 2005
21,270
GOSBTS
You have to spend the money before you get any return, not happening for us small guys.

I am talking about 'small guys' too - but you are right of course the income needs to be there. But plenty of business owners who previously got their vehicle against the business moved quickly from petrol/diesel to electric for these benefits
 


sydney

tinky ****in winky
Jul 11, 2003
16,802
town full of eejits
The digital world will provide a solution, think about JustPark, if you'd said to someone twenty years ago you could get £10-£20 a day allowing someone to park on your drive they'd have laughed. You watch the Apple HomeCharge Pod that will come out so I can pull up on someone's drive, having booked a slot on line, using a map of the UK with thousands of Pod locations, you drip in a 30 minute charge, you make a little more than the electric costs and Apple make billions ..... sound familiar?

of course it does , i'm sure tesla will have their own option as will the bile inducing Gates.
 

Braggfan

Members
May 12, 2014
1,637
more like 20 years, and the real advance of phones came about at a confluence of decades of improvements in LED display tech and processor miniaturisation.

a problem with the assumption we'll just find tech solution is often innovations dont scale outside the labs, either in production or economics. or in case of a nuclear power supply, politics.


I think the nuclear power supply is pretty extreme, it was really just an illustration that times are changing and radical solutions are being looked at.

In 20 years I think things will drastically different, but I think inside 10 years I think the changes could be pretty huge as well. In itself electric cars becoming the main type of car being produced and sold would be pretty radical.

Obviously it's just speculation, but personally I could see that happening within 10 years, but I think that is the assumption rather than a tech solution being found. Mainly because a lot of the tech already exists to some degree. The question mark over its progression and development would be dependent on investment and the scale of both development and investment is dependent on just how dominant electric cars become.
 

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
33,667
I think the nuclear power supply is pretty extreme, it was really just an illustration that times are changing and radical solutions are being looked at.

In 20 years I think things will drastically different, but I think inside 10 years I think the changes could be pretty huge as well. In itself electric cars becoming the main type of car being produced and sold would be pretty radical.

Obviously it's just speculation, but personally I could see that happening within 10 years, but I think that is the assumption rather than a tech solution being found. Mainly because a lot of the tech already exists to some degree. The question mark over its progression and development would be dependent on investment and the scale of both development and investment is dependent on just how dominant electric cars become.

the problem is we are driving forward on an assumption that technology change will happen. there are other drivers of course, environment etc, but this may likely be a case that an advance reduces utility. battery tech hasnt really moved for decades, there are physical constraints to overcome, Lithium made a big change at the small form end but doesnt scale (Tesla batteries are hundred of them strung together), charging speed is limited, power availability overlooked. there is a common view that through money and sheer willpower the problems will be solved. some will, some of them may not, and if they can be it could take longer than the 10yr deadline being given. we havent rolled out smart meters in 10 yrs, i dont see how domestic electric systems will be uprated for example.
 
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Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,306
Uckfield
Imagine living in a block of flats in a large city ( not all flats have underground car parks).....or terraced housing where you have to park 1/2 mile away......you going to need a long extension lead....

I've walked down terraced streets in London (Baker Street surrounding area) and seen plenty of electric cars being charged without running extensions from the house (although I saw some of that too...). There's been work done converting the street lamps to also carry EV charging points.


Electric cars are well and good but until they can find a way to safely dispose of the battery it seems somewhat counterproductive. Whilst an important step in the right direction, the infrastructure needs to be in place as well as advances in technology so long trips aren’t extended by potentially a few hours due to the need to charge the battery.

EV batteries are already very recyclable. Most of them, once they're no longer fit for car use, are refurbished and repurposed to provide on-site battery power. For example, an awful lot of the "home battery" products for those with solar panels are actually refurbished car batteries. Those that can't be refurbished and given a second life get broken down and the core materials recovered for building new batteries. I think it's VW who are very near to rolling out a new battery recycling process where they can recover the vast majority of the battery materials for making new batteries.


I think they start at about £75k

For the Model S. The Model 3 is closer to £41k. Still steep, granted, but Tesla are the market leader and can charge a premium as a result.


Will certainly consider an ev next time round but the prices will need to have come down as they seem prohibitively expensive at the moment.
Petrol Corsa range is £16k to £26k, Corse-e range starts at £30k
Kia Niro petrol is £24k to £32k, e-Niro is £32k to £40k
that needs sorting before most folk can afford to actually buy one.

They're coming down, and coming down quick, although a lot of the price reduction is being hidden because it's tied to the quality of the battery. The cost of an EV battery per kWh in 2010 was over 1000 Euros. It's now down to around 140 Euros as of last year and constantly coming down. Thing is, when it comes to the car you drive off the dealer's lot you aren't seeing most of that reduction in the headline price because at the moment the benefit is instead going into increasing the range.

As an example, the original 2013 Renault Zoe shipped with a 22kWh battery and a real world range of under 100 miles. The latest Zoe ships with a 52kWh battery and real world range closer to 200 miles. In less than 10 years battery tech has come far enough that a) the batteries are cheaper and b) more than twice as good for EV use. Within the next 5 years we should see the next generation of batteries becoming available, and the talk is these will be much quicker to charge and capable of driving ranges around 500 miles.


I think the issues over charging will change dramatically over the next ten years. Probably more than a lot of us can really conceive at the moment.

When something becomes the dominant product in it’s industry, technology can be developed very quickly because there is so much investment in it. For example in the space of ten years, mobile phones went from a brick that a few people had, to internet using, music playing , picture taking phone that everyone on the planet had. The world is changing and if the electric cars over take petrol and diesel cars then I would expect big changes, and we won’t be confined by todays constraints.

There was an interesting article doing the rounds a few months back. https://www.energylivenews.com/2020...lear-waste-that-could-last-up-to-28000-years/

I’m not saying this is on the cards anytime soon or that it will work/take off, but it illustrates that big industries are seriously looking out revolutionary solutions at the moment and people are looking to cash in on that. That’s the sort of scenario that can push big changes through.

Dead right, especially that first sentence. There's multiple different next-generation battery technologies nearing production (eg replacing graphite with graphene, and after that there should be lithium-silicon battery breakthroughs within the next 5 years), so I think by the time we get to 2030 we'll be looking at EV vehicles with similar - possibly better - range to current ICE vehicles, at a cost price that is far more affordable. And, as EV usage in those who can afford to buy now increases, and those who already committed then move into the next generation vehicles, you'll see those less well off will be able to pick up decent second hand EV's.


I've heard of Tesla graveyards in the US where a lot of the issues they've had with the cars can't be fixed economically and cars are being written off. The batteries can't be recycled and a lot of the composites and bonding agents used in manufacturing is toxic. I'm not sure we'll ever see a Tesla made today, still going strong in 50 years time like my old little Datsun.

Not sure where you've heard this, but a lot of it is wrong. From what I've seen, the rumours were started because Tesla production was outstripping their ability to store the cars at their factory, so they began storing Model 3's that were coming off the production line in massive parking lots. Beyond that, what you say about the batteries is completely false: EV batteries are actually easily recycled. Many get refurbished and repurposed as on-site power storage (eg Home battery), others get broken down and the component materials used to build new batteries. As the technology is driven forwards, it's getting cleaner and cleaner. What we have today isn't perfect, but the next 10 years is going to see rapid development (heck, the last 10 years has already seen massive strides forward and it's accelerating still).
 

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