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Kamala, but it’s not actually a late surge - the polls have been screwy for a number of weeks now.

Showing my hand a little but Rory Stewart has been on this betting stuff and how it was influencing certain polls for weeks now. His view on it is part of the reason for my belief, he spoke very convincingly about it a few weeks ago, and some of the things he predicted about how the betting and...

So much weird stuff going on in the noise in the days leading up.

He won by 8 points last time round, so Seltzer’s is certainly more of an outlier, however her polls are also A* rated and she is pretty much always within 2-3 points. Who knows?!

That poll is insane.

No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things. Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same. It’s all good. :thumbsup:

OK. I am sorry that people attempting to analyse and speculate is upsetting you so much. Feel free to put me on ignore as I may continue discussing such matters in a thread designed for this purpose. I haven’t ignored the Arizona data by the way. But one thing isn’t going to make me...

Which is EXACTLY what I’m doing, which seems for some reason to be frustrating you? If you don’t want speculation about the US election, this might not be the thread for you for the next 3 days.

I agree that I do not KNOW what the outcome will be. Obviously. None of us do. My views are based on a number of factors, a couple of which being the turnouts so far, and then specifically the turnouts of female voters, as females are polling for Harris way higher than for Trump.

The thread behind the prediction is interesting

I’m fully aware of all of this. I haven’t assumed the votes have been counted for each candidate at all.

There was no early voting with Brexit. One of the main reasons I have some confidence is that all early actual quantifiable data looks pretty positive for Harris.

Money where mouth is. If I’m wrong I’m wrong.

The recent Trump surge was incredibly suspicious. Given everything that’s come before, it’s hard not to think we will hear in a few months or years that there was dodgy polling going on.

Oh yes I agree with that. 99% is too far. I do however think it is starting to look like she will win, and that it MIGHT be more comfortable than many expect.

I find it odd that people think betting (which Republicans are being pushed to do massively, for obvious reasons) is a better indicator of what’s happening than actual factual turnout and voting patterns (ie what’s actually happening!)

You understand what’s happening with the betting patterns?

It’s building.