Will we see a Summer this year?

[banjo]

Haha, that'll teach me to have 2 tabs open.

The weather? I think Spring is rolling into Autumn and bypassing summer this year. We had one nice week at the beginning of May. I blame the Express myself.....
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/672361/Hottest-summer-in-100-years-UK-weather-forecast-2016-heatwave

Not a bad shout btw. Klinsmann.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What does NSC weather expert Papa Lazarou say about the coming months?

I'm not sure about the next couple of months, but the next couple of weeks look like more of the same... so nothing hot, no sustained areas of high pressure over the UK and no proper summer.

I'd hazard a guess that we'll get a perfect summer setup in late September / early October though, when it's all but too late to be of any value.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Blimey - just stepped through most of the CFS model for a 'laugh'.

I know it's highly unlikely to happen, but that models shows a repeating pattern of:

1. Azores High staying put, pushing a weak ridge our way for a day or so - couple of days without rain mainly in the south
2. A week low pressure system forms near Greenland and moves SE to slowly pass close over or close to the UK, bringing rain / showers and cool NW winds (like we have now).
3. This moves slowly East, allowing a weak ridge to form to the West giving us a few days of northerly winds, and cool showery conditions.

This whole process lasts about 4-7 days ...

Then repeat.

As long as the Azores High stays at home, we will not see summer arrive.

 

[mlg57]

That sounds pretty much like what that other Cimatologist said, so it's shit until mid July, great stuff