[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 38 Update - 1 OVER

[dazzer6666]

Yup... all of this. And lots of lots saying that things like "numbers like xG doesnt win you matches". Well, in a way that is true but in a way it is also false. Almost without exceptions teams with high xG is high up the table and teams with low xG are low in the table. This is one of the many obvious causes for optimism, because at some point its very likely that those positive numbers also leads to positive results. Below is a table of the worst teams in the top 5 leagues this season. One of them are not like the others. And its bound to change, because luck and poor conversion is playing a part and likely cant forever. People talking about sacking Potter is yet to tell how a new manager brings luck and conversion. Lots of talk about the problems of the lack of play however, but any change in that area is more likely to result in less chances than it is to result in more.

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Arteta got flamed a couple of weeks ago for blurting out ‘nonsense’ (and quite similar in nature) stats, and saying he wasn’t unduly worried as they showed Arsenal were doing the right things and had been a bit unlucky. He had quite a smirk on his face at the weekend after their third win in 3.......If only we had a Lacazette up front.........

 

[Swansman]

Arteta got flamed a couple of weeks ago for blurting out ‘nonsense’ (and quite similar in nature) stats, and saying he wasn’t unduly worried as they showed Arsenal were doing the right things and had been a bit unlucky. He had quite a smirk on his face at the weekend after their third win in 3.......If only we had a Lacazette up front.........

Yup. Having a striker like that wins you games. I hope there will be a striker coming, but Maupay and Connolly improving would also be fine (and actually quite likely since they are both quite young).

 

[One Love]

Yup. Having a striker like that wins you games. I hope there will be a striker coming, but Maupay and Connolly improving would also be fine (and actually quite likely since they are both quite young).

They will probably improve as players but clinical finishing does tend to be something you either have or you don't.

All through the team, decision making is poor in the final third, it's not just the strikers. I don't know how you solve that one apart from bringing in new personnel.

Regarding the xG, I followed it last year a lot because we were way behind where we should be so I thought we were being terribly unlucky. I was convinced it would change. It did a bit towards the end of the season but nowhere near bringing us to par, we ended up 4th in the negative xG table I think.. So it's not just this season, it seems to strangely be a Potter thing where we don't convert chances and the opposition keeps scoring when they shouldn't.

 

[FatSuperman]

They will probably improve as players but clinical finishing does tend to be something you either have or you don't.

All through the team, decision making is poor in the final third, it's not just the strikers. I don't know how you solve that one apart from bringing in new personnel.

Regarding the xG, I followed it last year a lot because we were way behind where we should be so I thought we were being terribly unlucky. I was convinced it would change. It did a bit towards the end of the season but nowhere near bringing us to par, we ended up 4th in the negative xG table I think.. So it's not just this season, it seems to strangely be a Potter thing where we don't convert chances and the opposition keeps scoring when they shouldn't.

Under achieving xG means you are either unlucky or you have ‘below average’ finishers. Just as consistently over achieving it means you have more-clinical-than-average finishers. There are a load of nuances I’m sure, like confidence, issues in the changing room, etc. But in general, I’d probably say that we don’t have enough data to say whether our strikers are PL average or below/above. It certainly seems this season that they’re below average though!

 

[vagabond]

Yup... all of this. And lots of lots saying that things like "numbers like xG doesnt win you matches". Well, in a way that is true but in a way it is also false. Almost without exceptions teams with high xG is high up the table and teams with low xG are low in the table. This is one of the many obvious causes for optimism, because at some point its very likely that those positive numbers also leads to positive results. Below is a table of the worst teams in the top 5 leagues this season. One of them are not like the others. And its bound to change, because luck and poor conversion is playing a part and likely cant forever. People talking about sacking Potter is yet to tell how a new manager brings luck and conversion. Lots of talk about the problems of the lack of play however, but any change in that area is more likely to result in less chances than it is to result in more.

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I genuinely don’t understand though why we haven’t addressed this problem directly. Surely If we can measure that our weakness is in taking chances, why aren’t recruitment doing everything in their power to line up a load of forwards for us to go for.

Yet most windows we’re linked with CBs and wingers.

I do start to wonder if GP has actually said “we don’t need anymore strikers, we can coach these guys to improve their finishing”. Because it’s such an obvious blind spot, that we can all see. Even Paul Barber was saying on a podcast in the summer “haha, here comes the question about when are you buying a striker”.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'd argue they do serve a purpose. Even for us ordinary fans. Or maybe only to those of us who have brains that like numbers (like me). But anyway: point I wanted to make here is that these stats *are* useful as they help illustrate and back up discussion points in bed-wetting threads (either to prove the bed wetting is appropriate, or to show it probably isn't).

Yes: we all "know" that our problem is that our conversion rate is terrible. And we all "know" that the poor conversion rate has cost us a *lot* of points this season (and previous seasons). But ... that hasn't stopped a host of members here from getting their knickers in a knot calling for Potter's removal. When the reality is, when you look at the underlying stats produced by our performances so far we can see that generally Potter's got us playing good football. Not always pretty and enjoyable to watch, granted, but generally speaking we're doing a pretty good job in the middle of the pitch. We're a little below average defensively, but not irrecoverably so, but we're massively below the curve on chance conversion and that's costing us.

Looking at these sorts of stats shows us something very important: IMO Potter has solved the problems that got Hughton sacked. What we now lack is the firepower to make use of the improvements Potter has made. Not sure that's Potter's fault. At this point, I think Bloom has two choices (not necessarily exclusive):

1. Dip into the bank account and buy a proven goal scorer. Forget the "take a punt" buy-on-the-cheap striker options for just one transfer window, and go out and get someone we can trust to take the opportunities that our midfield is creating. Someone who can hopefully then through their confidence in front of goal also improve Maupay and Connolly.

AND/OR

2. Go and get a known-quantity top end striker coach to support Potter and work with Welbeck, Maupay, Connolly, Trossard, etc to get them firing.

I'm not sure if the latter is viable, though. I think our problem is that we simply don't have an instinctive shooter. All of our strikers seem to want to take a touch and shoot from a position of control. But that's costing us a lot of shooting opportunities when they simply don't have the time to take a touch first, or the first touch is awful, and then the chance is gone. Having said that, was pleasing to see Connolly poach one and have a pretty decent go at an overhead strike against Wolves - maybe that'll be the game that gives him the confidence to get a few more.

Top post. It shows you don't just like numbers but also words and thinking

 

[Bodian]

I'm not sure if the latter is viable, though. I think our problem is that we simply don't have an instinctive shooter. All of our strikers seem to want to take a touch and shoot from a position of control. But that's costing us a lot of shooting opportunities when they simply don't have the time to take a touch first, or the first touch is awful, and then the chance is gone. Having said that, was pleasing to see Connolly poach one and have a pretty decent go at an overhead strike against Wolves - maybe that'll be the game that gives him the confidence to get a few more.

Although Maupay always seems keen to get a shot off instead of making sure - except that game where he took an extra touch in front of an almost open goal.

 

[Giraffe]

I sense after Fulham's draw tonight the bed wetting may return. Not here. They need more than draws to pull back that deficit.

 

[Giraffe]

Arriving in mid-January on 15 points and only three wins on the board will make for increasing the frequency of washing the bedding.

Well I did warn you.

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

I sense after Fulham's draw tonight the bed wetting may return. Not here. They need more than draws to pull back that deficit.

Grow up.

 

[um bongo molongo]

Seeing the Fulham number, I took a look at their fixtures expecting to see a run from hell. But in their next 9 they play us, West Brom, Sheff Utd and Palace. All winnable from their perspective you’d think.

 

[Giraffe]

Grow up.

How much taller do you want a Giraffe to grow exactly?

 

[The Fits]

Seeing the Fulham number, I took a look at their fixtures expecting to see a run from hell. But in their next 9 they play us, West Brom, Sheff Utd and Palace. All winnable from their perspective you’d think.

Even Chelsea at home next they could get a result. They were outstanding against Liverpool before Christmas.

 

[vagabond]

To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 18 Update - 1 under

I sense after Fulham's draw tonight the bed wetting may return. Not here. They need more than draws to pull back that deficit.

Have to admit I had some criticism of the tracker last time, but this season I’ve really felt a reassuring value from it. It’s a voice of calm sanity amongst the end times hysteria.

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

How much taller do you want a Giraffe to grow exactly?

Tall enough to see that ‘bed wetter’ is an unbelievably pathetic phrase to describe people who are concerned about a team with 5 wins in 36 games.

 

[Giraffe]

Tall enough to see that ‘bed wetter’ is an unbelievably pathetic phrase to describe people who are concerned about a team with 5 wins in 36 games.

I certainly wasn't trying to cause offence. It's a term used on North Stand Chat for many many years. I certainly wasn't the first to coin it. It's like Fixtures, the actual meaning has long been forgotten as it is used for another meaning. The original tracker was called "To avoid Bed Wetting..." However since Graham has been here it has been "To Avoid Potter Bashing... I shall consider myself chastised on the bed wetting front and will use Potter Bashing in the future, not bed wetting.

I hope that is okay.

 

[Giraffe]

Full update, even though it changes nothing. Two massive games coming up. The Lion will save us.

 

[vagabond]

Full update, even though it changes nothing. Two massive games coming up. The Lion will save us.

So despite the doomsday outlook from many on here we’re actually almost on track. Interesting.

 

[Giraffe]

And for those of you who are suddenly terrified by Fulham. Don't forget they only got 7 points from their opening 11 games. Yes they have drawn the last five. But if they continue on that "point a game" form they will finish on just 31 points. We are still comfortable.

 

[albionalbino]

The tracker is predicting 12 points between now and the end of February.
Good times are just around the corner. Fingers crossed