[News] The World at War

[Zeberdi]

Could you elaborate why this means that the UK might get involved militarily but not (it appears) other European countries? Aside from the immediate post war history, do we have closer ties with Israel or have reason to be a more resolute ally than others?

1. Other Countries are less closely allied with US (Israel’s greatest defender) than we are. We have become more unilateral since the Trump administration but remain heavily tied to the US in our foreign policy (some might even say a puppet).
2. We allow the US to use our base in Cyprus among other things, to ship US arms to Israel and have a ‘special relationship’ that would be impossible to maintain if we departed significantly from US policy on Israel (the US being Isreal’s greatest defender).
3. The Israel lobby is politically significant

That said, European Countries would certainly step up militarily if necessary but it would be a big political risk for them domestically - public support for Israel across Europe is very much at a low over Gaza.

Opinion in Israel is deeply divided over going after Iran’s nuclear sites - some thinking that Netanyahu is taking an enormous gamble - they think the Israeli military is incapable (with or without the help of the United States) of destroying Iran's nuclear program and along with all Countries, see the diplomatic route and restoration of a Nuclear Treaty the best option - but Europe generally supports Israel either way there’s no doubt.

There is nobody in the West that wants Iran or any one else in the ME to acquire nuclear weapons but nor do Russia or China as that would seriously change the dynamic of power in the region:

• Russia and China align closely with Iran along with Turkey
• China is Iran’s main importer of oil so there is massive implications for Chinese infrastructure and massive for Iran’s economy in taking out the oil terminals as Israel is doing - it’s a serious escalation
• Iran is arming Russia to fight the war in Ukraine.

Both China and Russia have a very strong sphere of influence in the region so their alignment with Iran is largely around protecting that influence against competing interests in the ME of the US and allies.

Why does the UK give Israel unqualified backing?

The two key reasons are the need for Whitehall to demonstrate British subservience and usefulness to the US, and the power of the Israel lobby, argues Declassified’s editor.

www.declassifieduk.org

I’m sure others could add other opinions to that.

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

Russia and Israel are enemies of the peaceful world. f*** them both. I really want to see us getting tougher on both, stopping arms sales to Israel is a good first step and massive sanctions on Russia with them.

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

1. Other Countries are less closely allied with US (Israel’s greatest defender) than we are. We have become more unilateral since the Trump administration but remain heavily tied to the US in our foreign policy (some might even say a puppet).
2. We allow the US to use our base in Cyprus among other things, to ship US arms to Israel and have a ‘special relationship’ that would be impossible to maintain if we departed significantly from US policy on Israel (the US being Isreal’s greatest defender).
3. The Israel lobby is politically significant

That said, European Countries would certainly step up militarily if necessary but it would be a big political risk for them domestically - public support for Israel across Europe is very much at a low over Gaza.

Opinion in Israel is deeply divided over going after Iran’s nuclear sites - some thinking that Netanyahu is taking an enormous gamble - they think the Israeli military is incapable (with or without the help of the United States) of destroying Iran's nuclear program and along with all Countries, see the diplomatic route and restoration of a Nuclear Treaty the best option - but Europe generally supports Israel either way there’s no doubt.

There is nobody in the West that wants Iran or any one else in the ME to acquire nuclear weapons but nor do Russia or China as that would seriously change the dynamic of power in the region:

• Russia and China align closely with Iran along with Turkey
• China is Iran’s main importer of oil so there is massive implications for Chinese infrastructure and massive for Iran’s economy in taking out the oil terminals as Israel is doing - it’s a serious escalation
• Iran is arming Russia to fight the war in Ukraine.

Both China and Russia have a very strong sphere of influence in the region so their alignment with Iran is largely around protecting that influence against competing interests in the ME of the US and allies.

Why does the UK give Israel unqualified backing?

The two key reasons are the need for Whitehall to demonstrate British subservience and usefulness to the US, and the power of the Israel lobby, argues Declassified’s editor.

www.declassifieduk.org

I’m sure others could add other opinions to that.

Well put.

 

[jackanada]

I'm afraid that your view lacks a historical perspective. It was the 'liberal western democracies ' who overthrew the democratically elected Mossadegh and replaced him with the hated Shah. The Shah stayed in power by murder, torture and keeping the bulk of the Iranian people in a state of malnutrition. His regime was certainly 'objectively evil' - and hugely supported by America and Britain. Strangely enough Iranians - and many others in that region -don't see us as 'the good guys' but as hypocrites who assume the mantle of 'freedom and democracy but have actually imposed on many countries some of t6he most repressive regimes imaginable. Even worse is when the West withdraws from a situation and leaves nothing but chaos - Libya, Iraq being the most glaring recent examples.

Also after the Mullahs overthrew the Shah the west put money and resources into Saddam Hussein to gain control of Iraq and go to war with Iran for them.
Fun fact. When we invaded Iraq we didn't have any significant stock of desert fatigues because we'd sold them off to Iraq 2 years previous.

 

[Giraffe]

The speed, scope and ambition to get viewers means it’s easy to consume news 24 hours a day. Taking a day off is sometimes a good idea.

Good advice. I rarely watch the news and haven’t done so for a couple of years now. I look at the news on 2 or 2 news websites each day and that’s it. Informed without the intensity and over analysis that tv brings. I think it’s better for you to make your own judgements from what appears to be the facts.

 

[Robinjakarta]

As a slight aside but connected, The World at War is a series well worth watching - can probably get the box set on Amazon or somewhere. I don't know who originally said it but current events show history indeed goes in circles and humans are too stupid to learn from the past.

The World at War is/was a wonderfully put together series about the Second World War and events leading up to it and superbly narrated by Sir Laurence Olivier.

 

[Zeberdi]

Good advice. I rarely watch the news and haven’t done so for a couple of years now. I look at the news on 2 or 2 news websites each day and that’s it. Informed without the intensity and over analysis that tv brings. I think it’s better for you to make your own judgements from what appears to be the facts.

Ditto.

Don’t have a TV nor watch ‘live’ news - not for years.

Briefly check Sky or BBC for headlines a few times a day - early morning and evening - that’s it.

There’s enough information out there for people to do their own background research, fact check and be selectively discerning about where you are getting your information from if you want to stay informed enough to form independent opinions.

 

[essbee1]

Good advice. I rarely watch the news and haven’t done so for a couple of years now. I look at the news on 2 or 2 news websites each day and that’s it. Informed without the intensity and over analysis that tv brings. I think it’s better for you to make your own judgements from what appears to be the facts.Finding

The World at War is/was a wonderfully put together series about the Second World War and events leading up to it and superbly narrated by Sir Laurence Olivier.

Agreed. But with the most God awful dubbed on sound/effects that, quite frankly, make it a bit weird.

 

[essbee1]

btw, I'm not sure if interested, but Frank Sidebottom, comedy genius, is getting an exhibition in Manchester:

Oh, blimey... Frank Sidebottom exhibition celebrates comic 'legend'

Frank's World features rare items including Frank Sidebottom's Magical Timperley Tour jacket.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Zeberdi]

btw, I'm not sure if interested, but Frank Sidebottom, comedy genius, is getting an exhibition in Manchester:

Oh, blimey... Frank Sidebottom exhibition celebrates comic 'legend'

Frank's World features rare items including Frank Sidebottom's Magical Timperley Tour jacket.

www.bbc.co.uk

?

Odd thing to post on a thread about war

 

[abc]

Having got myself a bit consumed by these events over the weekend, I’ve read and listened to an awful lot of commentary and reporting. The reaction around the world is interesting.

Russia and China have criticised Israel’s actions of course but there is no indication that they are interested in getting involved. They don’t want to see Iran with nukes anymore than Israel and escalation would damage them trade/energy wise as much as anyone,

The Western nations are if anything supportive of Israel but will only get involved if their own bases are attacked. Again, escalation would be economically disastrous when almost all governments are trying to manage their own struggling economies.

Maybe I’m being over optimistic but I can see this playing out between Israel and Iran without it dragging anyone else in. If so, we may avoid the worst predictions of all out war in the region and further afield

 

[Hugo Rune]

Having got myself a bit consumed by these events over the weekend, I’ve read and listened to an awful lot of commentary and reporting. The reaction around the world is interesting.

Russia and China have criticised Israel’s actions of course but there is no indication that they are interested in getting involved. They don’t want to see Iran with nukes anymore than Israel and escalation would damage them trade/energy wise as much as anyone,

The Western nations are if anything supportive of Israel but will only get involved if their own bases are attacked. Again, escalation would be economically disastrous when almost all governments are trying to manage their own struggling economies.

Maybe I’m being over optimistic but I can see this playing out between Israel and Iran without it dragging anyone else in. If so, we may avoid the worst predictions of all out war in the region and further afield

I hope you are right.

I think Iran lacks real allies. Russia has used them like a cheap prostitute. Russia have been vulnerable for decades to the exact kind of fundamentalist Islamist terrorism that Iran tries to cultivate around the world. Other than a bunch of rebels in Yemen, a profoundly weakened Hamas in Gaza and equally wounded Hezbollah in Lebanon, I think they are on their own.

No other countries will join Israel as they surely won't be needed against the sort of threat that Iran can muster up.

Meanwhile, Trump's rants about a deal will be ignored by all sides. I don't think Israel take the orange Buffon seriously at all. They'll enjoy rubbing his nose in it when they whack the Ayatollah later this month.

 

[Mustafa II]

Really awful what is happening in Tehran. My thoughts are with the Iranian people, especially the younger people who have not lived through this kind of fear and destruction before, and just want to go about their lives.

 

[beorhthelm]

there seems an out of date world view, based on 70's-80's cold war, fearing escalation with other ME nations, US, Russia piling in then fought out elsewhere. current world changed alot, Gulf nations are opposed to Iran, and while most where anti-Israel then, they haven't been for some time. last year many assisted in defending Israel from Iran drone attacks. Saudi would love Iran destroyed and leave them as the regional superpower, and are allied to US and west. Russia is in no position to aid Iran. most oil from the Gulf goes east and China would be mighty pissed if Iran tried closing Hormuz. today escalation would mean US using regional based to pulverise Iran.

 

[abc]

Really awful what is happening in Tehran. My thoughts are with the Iranian people, especially the younger people who have not lived through this kind of fear and destruction before, and just want to go about their lives.

Absolutely and the same for the Israeli equivalent. As always, the machinations of those in power play out to the detriment of the innocent

 

[rippleman]

As a slight aside but connected, The World at War is a series well worth watching - can probably get the box set on Amazon or somewhere. I don't know who originally said it but current events show history indeed goes in circles and humans are too stupid to learn from the past.

Two other series worth a watch on BBC4 are Rise of the Nazis and The Nazis: A Warning from History.

 

[Terry Connor]

1. Other Countries are less closely allied with US (Israel’s greatest defender) than we are. We have become more unilateral since the Trump administration but remain heavily tied to the US in our foreign policy (some might even say a puppet).
2. We allow the US to use our base in Cyprus among other things, to ship US arms to Israel and have a ‘special relationship’ that would be impossible to maintain if we departed significantly from US policy on Israel (the US being Isreal’s greatest defender).
3. The Israel lobby is politically significant

That said, European Countries would certainly step up militarily if necessary but it would be a big political risk for them domestically - public support for Israel across Europe is very much at a low over Gaza.

Opinion in Israel is deeply divided over going after Iran’s nuclear sites - some thinking that Netanyahu is taking an enormous gamble - they think the Israeli military is incapable (with or without the help of the United States) of destroying Iran's nuclear program and along with all Countries, see the diplomatic route and restoration of a Nuclear Treaty the best option - but Europe generally supports Israel either way there’s no doubt.

There is nobody in the West that wants Iran or any one else in the ME to acquire nuclear weapons but nor do Russia or China as that would seriously change the dynamic of power in the region:

• Russia and China align closely with Iran along with Turkey
• China is Iran’s main importer of oil so there is massive implications for Chinese infrastructure and massive for Iran’s economy in taking out the oil terminals as Israel is doing - it’s a serious escalation
• Iran is arming Russia to fight the war in Ukraine.

Both China and Russia have a very strong sphere of influence in the region so their alignment with Iran is largely around protecting that influence against competing interests in the ME of the US and allies.

Why does the UK give Israel unqualified backing?

The two key reasons are the need for Whitehall to demonstrate British subservience and usefulness to the US, and the power of the Israel lobby, argues Declassified’s editor.

www.declassifieduk.org

I’m sure others could add other opinions to that.

Am finding this thread useful and informative, thanks.

The principle of relying less on mainstream media and social media feeds (echo chambers?) and more on independent research is one I'm trying to enact more.

One interesting dimension is the domestic political risk for the UK Government. In the 2021 Census, about 270k people identified as Jewish, 3.7m as Muslim. I looked this up as my own query to the point about the strength of the Israel lobby, which is beyond doubt. Labour has found itself vulnerable to pro-Muslim candidates in parts of it's traditional heartlands. Could this factor become more important as this Parliament progresses in time?

 

[Zeberdi]

Really awful what is happening in Tehran. My thoughts are with the Iranian people, especially the younger people who have not lived through this kind of fear and destruction before, and just want to go about their lives.

Agreed - as with Israel (I have relatives and family friends living in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv so it’s very concerning that yet again, civilians are paying the price)

Other than a bunch of rebels in Yemen, a profoundly weakened Hamas in Gaza and equally wounded Hezbollah in Lebanon, I think they are on their own.

As you say ‘profoundly weakened’ but still defiant.

- one of the greatest threat to American and UK military bases across the region remains from Iranian proxy groups operating in Iraq - Kataib-Hezbollah being the most dominant which forms part of Iraqi security forces but are actually subservient to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

With all these terror groups, it’s like the head of the mythical Hydra, you chop off one head and another 2 or more grows back because you simply can’t bomb an ideology out of existence and the more you try, the faster the heads grow back.

Militarily no match for a full onslaught of US forces but can still inflict damage and cause allied casualties through isolated terrorist attacks especially if Shiite and Sunni factions unite in their common anti-American activities as they have done in the past.

Sworn Frenemies: Sunni-Shiite Conflict and Cooperation

Notwithstanding current hostilities, there is a long history of cooperation between Sunni and Shiite extremists.

www.washingtoninstitute.org

https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/kataib-hezbollah-a-dominant-iraqi-pro-iranian-militia/

 

[abc]

Am finding this thread useful and informative, thanks.

The principle of relying less on mainstream media and social media feeds (echo chambers?) and more on independent research is one I'm trying to enact more.

One interesting dimension is the domestic political risk for the UK Government. In the 2021 Census, about 270k people identified as Jewish, 3.7m as Muslim. I looked this up as my own query to the point about the strength of the Israel lobby, which is beyond doubt. Labour has found itself vulnerable to pro-Muslim candidates in parts of it's traditional heartlands. Could this factor become more important as this Parliament progresses in time?

Interesting. I know nothing about this but would a difference be that Jewish people only have one ‘homeland’ (Israel) whilst Muslims have many (and they are very diverse) and it seems that whilst they all share the same faith, there are huge differences as to how that impacts their views on world events. Bit like Christians I guess.

 

[abc]

Agreed - as with Israel (I have relatives and family friends living in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv so it’s very concerning that yet again, civilians are paying the price)



As you say ‘profoundly weakened’ but still defiant.

- one of the greatest threat to American and UK military bases across the region remains from Iranian proxy groups operating in Iraq - Kataib-Hezbollah being the most dominant which forms part of Iraqi security forces but are actually subservient to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

With all these terror groups, it’s like the head of the mythical Hydra, you chop off one head and another 2 or more grows back because you simply can’t bomb an ideology out of existence and the more you try, the faster the heads grow back.

Militarily no match for a full onslaught of US forces but can still inflict damage and cause allied casualties through isolated terrorist attacks especially if Shiite and Sunni factions unite in their common anti-American activities as they have done in the past.

Sworn Frenemies: Sunni-Shiite Conflict and Cooperation

Notwithstanding current hostilities, there is a long history of cooperation between Sunni and Shiite extremists.

www.washingtoninstitute.org

https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/kataib-hezbollah-a-dominant-iraqi-pro-iranian-militia/

Back to your OP, I think you’ve just answered your own question: “are permanent de-escalations and mutual ceasefires no longer realistic aspirations?”.
The answer is no precisely because even if armies and countries de escalate, the terror groups will not and will forever morph and grow