[News] The World at War

[Zeberdi]

One interesting dimension is the domestic political risk for the UK Government. In the 2021 Census, about 270k people identified as Jewish, 3.7m as Muslim. I looked this up as my own query to the point about the strength of the Israel lobby, which is beyond doubt. Labour has found itself vulnerable to pro-Muslim candidates in parts of it's traditional heartlands. Could this factor become more important as this Parliament progresses in time?

Personally, I think the main ‘risk’ for Labour was taking Muslim votes for granted when they were dragging their feet over Gaza - Traditionally, the Muslim vote has been a loyal base for them but the By-Election in Rochdale that saw Galloway returned was a wake up call. I think the main reason for collapse of Labour support in the future will not be along the lines of race or religion but because of the need to fund our armed forces from cutting back on benefits (especially PIP) and access to health care. Obviously they need to get a grip on the immigration issues in these communities too which are perceived (wrongly or rightly) to be putting a strain on housing, health and education resources which is certainly the case where I live.

Edit - Of course another major war in the ME will inevitably result in the mass movement of people and a humanitarian catastrophe for millions. As mentioned up thread, the outcome could be a new tidal wave of refugees:

I certainly don’t think so, for too long all of us in the West have poked our noses into overseas affairs and then wonder why we are being overrun with Refugees fleeing the shitfest that we leave behind, i’ve said it before if we hadn’t sent Soldiers in to Iraq & Afginstan and left them well alone i wonder if we’d see so many refugees heading west

Obviously others will have different perspectives on this.

 

[jackanada]

The inspectors said Iraq had no WMD and they didn't.
The inspectors have also cleared Iran.
It's not exactly ancient history so I'd rather no one pretended this was about nukes.
If it was about nukes Israel appointing itself as judge jury and executioner when it doesn't permit inspections of its nuclear capability, hasn't signed the Non Proliferation Treaty, and has previously hinted at nuking every European capital if it should fall beggars belief.

 

[Insel affe]

The inspectors said Iraq had no WMD and they didn't.
The inspectors have also cleared Iran.
It's not exactly ancient history so I'd rather no one pretended this was about nukes.
If it was about nukes Israel appointing itself as judge jury and executioner when it doesn't permit inspections of its nuclear capability, hasn't signed the Non Proliferation Treaty,

This I am aware of, and all seems dubious and agree with you statement.

and has previously hinted at nuking every European capital if it should fall beggars belief.

This I am not aware of, really ?
when was this ?

 

[Zeberdi]

The inspectors said Iraq had no WMD and they didn't.
The inspectors have also cleared Iran.
It's not exactly ancient history so I'd rather no one pretended this was about nukes.
If it was about nukes Israel appointing itself as judge jury and executioner when it doesn't permit inspections of its nuclear capability, hasn't signed the Non Proliferation Treaty, and has previously hinted at nuking every European capital if it should fall beggars belief.

It’s about regime change - for Netanyahu it always has been. For the US, not so much but Israel could be forcing the issue.

How likely is regime change in Iran now?

The clue is in the name of Israel’s operation. ‘Operation Rising Lion’ is a direct reference to the Pahlavi flag used by Iran before the Islamic revolution, which shows a lion standing proud against the backdrop of a glowing orb, the sun. In Persian this is called the ‘Shir-e Khorshid.’ For many...

www.spectator.co.uk

Trump urges Iran and Israel to ‘make a deal’ - as hawks push for regime change

Republican senators show more support for Israel’s attacks on Iran

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Zeberdi]

… Israel …has previously hinted at nuking every European capital if it should fall beggars belief.

I think you are maybe referring to the comment Netanyahu made at the Holocaust Remembrance Day in April? Where he actually said:

”If Israel falls with Iran, the West will be next’.

He was basing it on the premise that Middle Eastern Countries are wanting to ’annihilate Israel’ with nuclear weapons and that if Israel falls whilst protecting the West from the Evil Axis of Resistance , they will come next for the West because Israel will no longer be there to act as a buffer.

It’s all bollocks of course - Israel won’t fall and nor will Iran but that’s been his narrative to gain Western support for his regime change agenda in Iran since at least October 2023 - an agenda primarily being engendered to keep him in power and out of prison.

Taken straight out of Zelenskyy’s playbook, who maintains Europe will be next if Ukraine falls as a way of raising the threat concerns and thus funding and arms supplies from Europe/US. Except with Zelenskyy it wasn’t bollocks, Russia is clearly the expansionist aggressor and the threat to border NATO Countries is very real if Ukraine falls.

 

[LamieRobertson]

 

[Eeyore]

It took ten minutes, but I was waiting for the word 'China'. Folk don't know just how much influence they have across Africa.

I remember reading a book by an aid worker who was present there 15 years or so ago. The Chinese have huge control of that region.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

It took ten minutes, but I was waiting for the word 'China'. Folk don't know just how much influence they have across Africa.

I remember reading a book by an aid worker who was present there 15 years or so ago. The Chinese have huge control of that region.

Doing their best to work their magic on Australia too

 

[rippleman]

Starmer repeats call for de-escalation, moves jets to Middle East

UK moves jets to Middle East as Starmer refuses to rule out defending Israel

Military assets to provide ‘contingency support’ as PM repeats call for de-escalation after Iran’s retaliatory strikes

www.theguardian.com

Haven't we been here before? When Blair lied to the British people that Iraq had WMDs as an excuse for us to invade the country (as instructed by the US) to enforce regime change. And then......it was discovered Iraq didn't have WMDs at all!

I'm not saying Iran doesn't have WMDs, just urging caution that we shouldn't necessarily accept the word of politicians.

Of course we have already seen Starmer licking round Trump; he will do whatever Trump tells him to do. Anybody still trusting Trump?

 

[Bozza]

I think you are maybe referring to the comment Netanyahu made at the Holocaust Remembrance Day in April? Where he actually said:

”If Israel falls with Iran, the West will be next’.

I've had an Israeli video ad about this following me around the internet over the past few days - they really don't waste any time in trying to win hearts and minds.

It's this one here:

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I've had an Israeli video ad about this following me around the internet over the past few days - they really don't waste any time in trying to win hearts and minds.

It's this one here:

No need to amplify it on here tho shirley?

 

[Zeberdi]

I've had an Israeli video ad about this following me around the internet over the past few days - they really don't waste any time in trying to win hearts and minds.

It's this one here:

Kind of effective though - checking out sky for incoming as I type

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Haven't we been here before? When Blair lied to the British people that Iraq had WMDs as an excuse for us to invade the country (as instructed by the US) to enforce regime change. And then......it was discovered Iraq didn't have WMDs at all!

I'm not saying Iran doesn't have WMDs, just urging caution that we shouldn't necessarily accept the word of politicians.

Of course we have already seen Starmer licking round Trump; he will do whatever Trump tells him to do. Anybody still trusting Trump?

I just think that the UK getting involved in another middle east regime change type military adventure is inconceivable now.

The public backlash would be on another scale again. I can't see how it would get through parliament.

Of course America might choose to go all in on behalf of Israel. The most we will do is rattle the sabre a bit and supply some logistics behind the scenes. Probably we won't do that

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Kind of effective though - checking out sky for incoming as I type

Your emoji is inappropriate - tho you'll doubtless edit it out during one of your frequent edits

 

[Zeberdi]

Your emoji is inappropriate - tho you'll doubtless edit it out during one of your frequent edits

I think you missed the ironic tone of Bozza’s post.

 

[abc]

The inspectors said Iraq had no WMD and they didn't.
The inspectors have also cleared Iran.
It's not exactly ancient history so I'd rather no one pretended this was about nukes.
If it was about nukes Israel appointing itself as judge jury and executioner when it doesn't permit inspections of its nuclear capability, hasn't signed the Non Proliferation Treaty, and has previously hinted at nuking every European capital if it should fall beggars belief.

I guess from an Israeli perspective its largely because Iran have repeatedly stated their aim to wipe the sate of Israel off the face of the earth

 

[abc]

I just think that the UK getting involved in another middle east regime change type military adventure is inconceivable now.

The public backlash would be on another scale again. I can't see how it would get through parliament.

I hope you're right but Blair and Parliament went ahead in Iraq after the biggest protest march in our history.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I hope you're right but Blair and Parliament went ahead in Iraq after the biggest protest march in our history.

And that is the single biggest reason I don't think we'll get involved. The memories are too raw.

The other reason I think we'll stay out, is that there is very little public support for Israel. That's not to say people want it to be nuked, but I don't think there will be any public support to put our troops in harms way for a situation which Netanyahu has contributed massively to.

I also think, and i'm less sure about this, that even if the Iran regime had a nuke today and a way of hitting Israel with it, they probably wouldn't. Like all the other nuclear states, they are looking to build this to hold the enemy government feet to the fire rather than actually blow it up with all the consequences that would entail.