[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

[Dorset Seagull]

You do realise it only needs one team to overtake us to see us drop into the relegation zone, and Fulham are only 2 points behind us with a game in hand. Parker has sorted Fulham’s defence and their performances have picked up, WBA may very well see an upturn in results but Fulham are the ones to watch for.
It would be horrendously naive to think that all we have to do is turn up to finish above the other 3 teams, WBA have made their big managerial change and that might be them showing their hand already, Fulham are learning and are backed by an owner with incredibly deep pockets, if they feel they need a player or two in January they’ll splash the cash. I feel like we’ve seen what Potter can do, and unless he gets a new striker he seems to be clueless as to how best to get a result with his current squad.

My point was that we always assume we will be the ones to fail and all the other teams will miraculously put points on the board so we will be relegated. It could be argued that we are due a run of form and others have already had theirs or still to have theirs.

 

[SEWDONIM]

7 wins 6 draws sounds pretty likely. Or 6 wins 6 draws, which wouldnt result in 40 points but probably the number of points needed in something around 9/10 PL seasons.

But where are those wins going to come from?

We drew at home to Burnley, West Brom and Sheffield United.

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

My point was that we always assume we will be the ones to fail and all the other teams will miraculously put points on the board so we will be relegated. It could be argued that we are due a run of form and others have already had theirs or still to have theirs.

I do appreciate what you’re saying, but Fulham started unbelievably badly and have now found their feet in this division. We’ve been ‘due a run of forma’ for approximately 12 months and it still seems to be a striker and a settled side from happening.
It’s only my opinion at the end of the day, but I don’t think we survive unless Potter is backed with a striker in January, not a punt, but an actual goal scorer. I’m not expecting Diego Costa, I’d be delighted with Adam Armstrong for example, a Potter type player who could inject new life into our attack.

 

[Swansman]

But where are those wins going to come from?

We drew at home to Burnley, West Brom and Sheffield United.

And..?

This is how football works: you play one game and it ends in one way, then you play another game and it might end in a different way, and then another game that might end in a different way and so on. Losing against Watford, like Liverpool did last season, doesnt mean that they are always going to lose all games against better opposition, and it doesnt mean that they are always going to lose against Watford.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

I do appreciate what you’re saying, but Fulham started unbelievably badly and have now found their feet in this division. We’ve been ‘due a run of forma’ for approximately 12 months and it still seems to be a striker and a settled side from happening.
It’s only my opinion at the end of the day, but I don’t think we survive unless Potter is backed with a striker in January, not a punt, but an actual goal scorer. I’m not expecting Diego Costa, I’d be delighted with Adam Armstrong for example, a Potter type player who could inject new life into our attack.

I still think we have shown enough to suggest we are in a false position and are in need of a confidence boost win or two to turn the tide. Easier said than done but some of the chances must start to hit the back of the net soon.

I think we would all agree that a more natural goalscorer in January is something we all crave but maybe one of the current squad will step up if we get a lucky break that drives some momentum

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldDa9TSDIkU

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

And..?

This is how football works: you play one game and it ends in one way, then you play another game and it might end in a different way, and then another game that might end in a different way and so on. Losing against Watford, like Liverpool did last season, doesnt mean that they are always going to lose all games against better opposition, and it doesnt mean that they are always going to lose against Watford.

Clueless.

When things go bad, the badness stays in the minds of everyone, and just gets worse and worse. That's why our performance against Wet Sham was even worse than our performance against the Blunts. If you don't understand that you know nothing about armchair football. Fact.

 

[SEWDONIM]

And..?

This is how football works: you play one game and it ends in one way, then you play another game and it might end in a different way, and then another game that might end in a different way and so on. Losing against Watford, like Liverpool did last season, doesnt mean that they are always going to lose all games against better opposition, and it doesnt mean that they are always going to lose against Watford.

Ah yes, every game we go into we have an equal chance of winning each and every single one of them, irrespective or whether it’s a home or away, Man City or Sheffield United.

Each game is independent of one another and alas the probability of each game is exactly the same.

Because Watford managed that one win against Liverpool.


They went down.

 

[Shooting Star]

I haven’t read all 7 pages so forgive me if somebody else has already mentioned this, but for all those critiquing the OP: we finished on 41 points last year. If we’re supposed to show progression to one day reach the lofty ambitions the club repeatedly publicises, we need even MORE points than the OP suggests (9 wins and 2 draws to reach 42 points, or a combination thereof). This is an enormous ask.

I’d love for Potter to be able to turn it around. Nobody should want a dignified man like him to lose their job. However I just can’t see him pulling that off. The combinations of results needed is sobering.

I fear many of the adamantly pro-Potter contingent having a go at the OP have radically lowered the expectations to simply staying up and being better than 3 other teams. I’ve seen people saying last night was a “decent performance” and even the commentators saying we played good football. In contrast to the standards Potter and the team have set themselves (Newcastle, Man United this season, Arsenal, Leicester away first half etc last year), last night’s performance (and that of the past few games) was so far below that high bar.

For those highlighting that we may only need 28 points to stay up - that’s all well and good, but we’re supposed to be showing signs of progression 4 years in and the club publicly stating that they have higher ambitions!

 

[Swansman]

I haven’t read all 7 pages so forgive me if somebody else has already mentioned this, but for all those critiquing the OP: we finished on 41 points last year. If we’re supposed to show progression to one day reach the lofty ambitions the club repeatedly publicises, we need even MORE points than the OP suggests (9 wins and 2 draws to reach 42 points, or a combination thereof). This is an enormous ask.

I’d love for Potter to be able to turn it around. Nobody should want a dignified man like him to lose their job. However I just can’t see him pulling that off. The combinations of results needed is sobering.

I fear many of the adamantly pro-Potter contingent having a go at the OP have radically lowered the expectations to simply staying up and being better than 3 other teams. I’ve seen people saying last night was a “decent performance” and even the commentators saying we played good football. In contrast to the standards Potter and the team have set themselves (Newcastle, Man United this season, Arsenal, Leicester away first half etc last year), last night’s performance (and that of the past few games) was so far below that high bar.

For those highlighting that we may only need 28 points to stay up - that’s all well and good, but we’re supposed to be showing signs of progression 4 years in and the club publicly stating that they have higher ambitions!

While it would be fantastic if every season could be a progression in terms of points, its very rare that a team is always producing a better point tally than their last season. There are other kinds of progression as well, such as playing and improving a lot of youngsters which hopefully in the long run leads to a progression in both club finances and results. If Sanchez, Lamptey, White, Alzate, Connolly etc gets to play a bit it might cost something - like the "result progress" - in the short run but end up better in one or two seasons than if you have Montoya or Stephens doing flawless alibi stuff for another year.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

While it would be fantastic if every season could be a progression in terms of points, its very rare that a team is always producing a better point tally than their last season. There are other kinds of progression as well, such as playing and improving a lot of youngsters which hopefully in the long run leads to a progression in both club finances and results. If Sanchez, Lamptey, White, Alzate, Connolly etc gets to play a bit it might cost something - like the "result progress" - in the short run but end up better in one or two seasons than if you have Montoya or Stephens doing flawless alibi stuff for another year.

Another excellent post. To Stephens and Montoya you can add Bruno and Murray for starters...

The progress resulting from GP’s appointment is quite obvious.

 

[rogersix]

But these developments where Fulham are supposedly improving and Brighton supposedly are not, are permanent and etched in stone? You are as bad as junior.

Point of order, you don't etch stone, as you were,

Soz

 

[Swansman]

Yup I think so. Not sure (no one could be) about which ones but if Im going to predict: Leeds away, Fulham home, Burnley away, Palace home, Newcastle home, Sheffield away,

My bad, forgot Spurs home and Liverpool away!

 

[Swansman]

Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

 

[vagabond]

[emoji23]

 

[Hugo Rune]

*makes note to bounce this when we don't get the seven home wins it predicts in 2021*

Looks like others have beaten you to it.

 

[Icy Gull]

Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

Talking about putting heads above the parapet, where’s yours





Apologies Bozza, noted. I was not aware of this

 

[Bozza]

As I have the memory of a goldfish, this thread had me thinking "did we really only have 13 points on the 30th December?"

Turns out, yes, we did...



So, since then, we've Won 6, Drawn 6 and Lost 6. We've also completely wiped out the 13 point advantage Southampton had over us.

 

[vagabond]

As I have the memory of a goldfish, this thread had me thinking "did we really only have 13 points on the 30th December?"

Turns out, yes, we did...

View attachment 136298

So, since then, we've Won 6, Drawn 6 and Lost 6. We've also completely wiped out the 13 point advantage Southampton had over us.

I’ll leave it to the statos to roll out the actual expected points per game and such, but I also recall we had an exceptionally difficult start to the season.

Something that was re-assuringly reflected in the Giraffe tracker. Maybe some lessons learned.

 

[Badger Boy]

That league table was incredibly depressing. We've improved but the original question was, "where are the wins going to come from?" wasn't wrong. We ended up losing away at Sheffield United and West Brom. It wasn't an unreasonably negative original post just because it's turned out this way. We're all happy the form has improved since we started playing a goalkeeper.