[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

[Farehamseagull]

You're as bad as Plooks. There is no chance of Sheffield United catching us but every chance of Fulham because they are improving and we are not. The question is "how do we get to 40 points"? I expect Fulham to end up nearer to that total than us. For a start they'll take a point or three away from the Amex.

But your calculation makes no allowance for form though. Who’s to say our luck doesn’t change and some of the chances we create suddenly go in?

But anyway, you say Fulham are improving and we’re not. In their last 8 games, they’ve won 1, drawn 4 and lost 3 - EXACTLY the same record as us.

Unnecessary and needlessly negative thread.

 

[andy1980]

I dont think TB would do a Swansea. Yes a few key players would be sold, thats how it is, but no way would he do absolutely everything to get rid of every single player he could get rid of. The yank Swansea owners thought they bought a big sports company that would bring in lots of cash and when they got relegated they just wanted got their money back, realising there is no cash in the Championship. TB probably sees Brighton as a lot more than some sports corporation that will make him bucks.

Good thing GP is not the only one who could do things different, theres about 25 guys in the squad who could different things from last year as well - and I think some of them will.

After I posted that, I saw your reply to Vegabound. It definitely won't be like Swansea in that respect. All the time Covid is having such a big effect on football then relegation becomes more devastating than normal, so I hope the interest in White, Bissouma, and Lampty are true (only if we go down).

It is Potters job to get the squad doing things differently. That is what he is paid for. Sure they have to take responsibility but so does Potter. We have been in the Premier League for 4 seasons now, we have showed we can compete so Potters job is getting them to compete. I know we don't loose that much but again, we win even less. That is the problem. Turn those draws into wins and I am 100% beside you on Potter.

 

[Guinness Boy]

But your calculation makes no allowance for form though. Who’s to say our luck doesn’t change and some of the chances we create suddenly go in?

But anyway, you say Fulham are improving and we’re not. In their last 8 games, they’ve won 1, drawn 4 and lost 3 - EXACTLY the same record as us.

Unnecessary and needlessly negative thread.

Show me where I've made a calculation?

I've taken the same target as a well respected and used tracker and pointed out how far we are off that target. I've pointed out there are a number of permutations to get us there. I've stated in my opinion that we won't. Nothing more or less. You're the one who brought other teams into it.

 

[Farehamseagull]

Show me where I've made a calculation?

I've taken the same target as a well respected and used tracker and pointed out how far we are off that target. I've pointed out there are a number of permutations to get us there. I've stated in my opinion that we won't. Nothing more or less. You're the one who brought other teams into it.

“Before you ask me, I already think it’s unachievable”.

And your point behind the thread is that you think we’re going down, which means one or more of the teams currently below us are not and will finish above us, so yes you are automatically bringing other teams into it.

 

[Giraffe]

It sounds more likely that we'll win more between now and May than we did in the whole of 2020? But you're not prepared to call which ones?

Hmmm.

The "Giraffe Tracker" shows predicted wins at home to Fulham, Villa, Palace, Newcastle, Everton, Leeds and West Ham. Draws away against Leeds, Burnley, West Brom, Southampton.

 

[Guinness Boy]

“Before you ask me, I already think it’s unachievable”.

And your point behind the thread is that you think we’re going down, which means one or more of the teams currently below us are not and will finish above us, so yes you are automatically bringing other teams into it.

That's not a calculation, that's a prediction, based on my opinion.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The "Giraffe Tracker" shows predicted wins at home to Fulham, Villa, Palace, Newcastle, Everton, Leeds and West Ham. Draws away against Leeds, Burnley, West Brom, Southampton.

And while it has been very useful in past seasons (and indeed I've often used it to reassure myself in the past) it is now showing 7 wins at home in just over 5 months where we've actually had one win at home in 12 months.

That's kind of why I started the thread - I believe we are in form that makes that sort of prediction over-ambitious.

 

[Farehamseagull]

That's not a calculation, that's a prediction, based on my opinion.

So you’ve calculated we won’t get enough points to stay up no?

 

[Stat Brother]

And while it has been very useful in past seasons (and indeed I've often used it to reassure myself in the past) it is now showing 7 wins at home in just over 5 months where we've actually had one win at home in 12 months.

That's kind of why I started the thread - I believe we are in form that makes that sort of prediction over-ambitious.

The combined season trackers showed we were only supposed to get 7 home wins in all of 2020, from 16 games. (Chances are Arsenal wasn't one of them!)

Sure on the one hand 7 wins from 5 months seems a tough ask.
But that doesn't really account for the vagaries of the combined seasons, which ended last and started this season with particularly tough home fixtures.

I guess that's why we shouldn't confuse the calender year with the football season.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

I am a happy clapper, quite prepared to take what football throws at us. Was there when we first went to the First Division 0-4 the the Arse and after was there at Hereford in the Fourth, I can enjoy the ups and downs it's a shame others feel the need to be nasty but that's also life, hey ho.

 

[peterward]

Im not thinking so much about points targets this year because I don't believe we will get anywhere near 40. So staying up will be a question of matching and occassionally bettering WBAs and Fulham's results for the remainder of the season.

things can change quickly and they already have, to watch Fulham at the start of the season, you'd think they were nailed on for relegation, they looked like a pub team..... now with good additions, they look better and more together than we do.

 

[Bry Nylon]

things can change quickly and they already have, to watch Fulham at the start of the season, you'd think they were nailed on for relegation, they looked like a pub team..... now with good additions, they look better and more together than we do.

Yes, Fulham seem to be getting better. Getting tonight's game vs Spurs postoned until after the January window opens could be one of their best results of the season.

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

So we are not in a relegation spot at the moment but for some reason the teams below us will do better from now on than us

You do realise it only needs one team to overtake us to see us drop into the relegation zone, and Fulham are only 2 points behind us with a game in hand. Parker has sorted Fulham’s defence and their performances have picked up, WBA may very well see an upturn in results but Fulham are the ones to watch for.
It would be horrendously naive to think that all we have to do is turn up to finish above the other 3 teams, WBA have made their big managerial change and that might be them showing their hand already, Fulham are learning and are backed by an owner with incredibly deep pockets, if they feel they need a player or two in January they’ll splash the cash. I feel like we’ve seen what Potter can do, and unless he gets a new striker he seems to be clueless as to how best to get a result with his current squad.

 

[Machiavelli]

Im not thinking so much about points targets this year because I don't believe we will get anywhere near 40. So staying up will be a question of matching and occassionally bettering WBAs and Fulham's results for the remainder of the season.

Precisely this. All you need to know.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's trackers Is clearly the nuts, if it ain't broke why fix it
[MENTION=616]Guinness-Boy[/MENTION]

Potter In until Bloom decides otherwise.

 

[Guinness Boy]

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's trackers Is clearly the nuts, if it ain't broke why fix it
[MENTION=616]Guinness-Boy[/MENTION]

Potter In until Bloom decides otherwise.

*makes note to bounce this when we don't get the seven home wins it predicts in 2021*

 

[neilbard]

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's trackers Is clearly the nuts, if it ain't broke why fix it
[MENTION=616]Guinness-Boy[/MENTION]

Potter In until Bloom decides otherwise.

*makes note to bounce this when we don't get the seven home wins it predicts in 2021*

Blimey, I couldn't even be bothered to check it today, seven home wins, Potter IN if he manages that, 0 so far this season.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

*makes note to bounce this when we don't get the seven home wins it predicts in 2021*

*makes note to bouce giraffes tracker when it proves to be accurate over the season in 2021

**makes second note to demote GB off my favourite mod list.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

*makes note to bouce giraffes tracker when it proves to be accurate over the season in 2021

**makes second note to demote GB off my favourite mod list.

* Just checked, ..................he never made the list.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Blimey, I couldn't even be bothered to check it today, seven home wins, Potter IN if he manages that, 0 so far this season.

Just think buses.

Keep the faith.