[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

[Springal]

The only team we haven't played this season is Leeds. The only game we have won this season is Newcastle. Again what do you see that makes you think we will turn those draws into wins.

Does our win against Villa not count ?

 

[Guinness Boy]

That is the premise of Giraffe's tracker.

But once you are behind you stay behind unless you get an "unexpected" result.

Surely it's not out of order to point out both the current PPG needed and ask what those unexpected results would be?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Fulham H, Wolves H and A, Leeds H and A, Sheffield A, Newcastle H, Palace H, City H, West Ham H, Spurs H, West Brom A, Villa H, Arsenal A, Leicester H, Saints A, Everton H are all chances of points. I'm only writing off Liverpool A, United A, Chelsea A, City A. Still a lot of the season to go. But we have to get tougher and we have to get luckier and our forwards have to hit form.

 

[Swansman]

We’re generally good away where an average non top six side comes for us (see Newcastle & Villa). The home games you quote have draw written all over them though.


Realistic away wins are:
Leeds
Burnley
West Brom
S’ampton
Sheff Utd
Wolves
Arsenal

That‘s 21 points that we can go for (with even more confidence if a natural Striker has been signed).

Could be draws in those home games, sure, but I think once the home ghost is dead - might take some luck or some serious arse clenching - more will come. Currently the Saints game is quite symptomatic for the home performances: in control until the first goal, takes the lead, gets very nervous/protective ("ohh its been so long since we won at home, I fear we **** up again") and moves into the knee of the keeper and allows the opponent to take over. One dumb, undeserved, flukey home win could at least partly kill off that demon. Winning against Wolves on Saturday would be godlike in so many ways. Think that one is a draw though.

 

[andy1980]

Generally being better than at least some of those teams are what makes me think at least a couple of those draws could be turned into wins. Winning, drawing or losing against a team doesnt mean every game against that team will have the same outcome, despite many apparently believing this is the case.

Ok but thats a big turn around and Leeds are so unpredictable, we are just as likely to be thrashed by them than beat them. What was Potters worst run in Sweden and how did he overcome it?

 

[Stat Brother]

But once you are behind you stay behind unless you get an "unexpected" result.

Surely it's not out of order to point out both the current PPG needed and ask what those unexpected results would be?

Newcastle Villa & Liverpool have all netted 'unexpected' points.


Bizarrely the unexpected points are more expected than the expected points.

 

[andy1980]

Does our win against Villa not count ?

Where does he mention Villa?

 

[Swansman]

Ok but thats a big turn around and Leeds are so unpredictable, we are just as likely to be thrashed by them than beat them. What was Potters worst run in Sweden and how did he overcome it?

Not sure. Six games without a win in 2014 (5 losses, 1 draw) maybe. Dont know what the change was.

In every single season of his manager career his teams ended up either the same position or better as halfway through the season and hopefully this will be the case in 20/21 as well.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

So we are not in a relegation spot at the moment but for some reason the teams below us will do better from now on than us

 

[Farehamseagull]

Many point to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] 's tracker as a reliable guide to avoid bed wetting and, indeed, it has been so in the past.

However, there clearly is a lot of worry around at the moment, so why?

Let's take the same premise that you need 40 points. That means we need 27 points from 22 games. About 1.2 points a game.

This neatly breaks down as follows (allowing for between 13 and 7 defeats).

9 wins (13 defeats)
8 wins 3 draws
7 wins 6 draws
6 wins 9 draws (7 losses)

So, for all those positive happy clappers, which of those permutations looks the most likely? And, in which games do you see those points being achieved.

Before you ask me, I already think it's unachievable.

Not trying to bin off the normal tracker but this could be an interesting thread to bounce at the end of the season if people are prepared to put their heads above the parapet.

So from that logic then you’re saying that the teams below us Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United won’t be able to catch us anyway so no need to worry, we’re staying up.

 

[andy1980]

Not sure. Six games without a win in 2014 (5 losses, 1 draw) maybe. Dont know what the change was.

In every single season of his manager career his teams ended up either the same position or better as halfway through the season and hopefully this will be the case in 20/21 as well.

Thats a good stat. Leeds on the 16th Jan is the mid point of this season, hopefully we are not in the relegation zone at that point it will at least give me some hope for the rest of the season.

We went 8 games between the Newcastle and Aston Villa wins and 10 games between Bournemouth and Arsenal wins. We are currently on a 7 game winless streak. You have to admit that this is his toughest time as a manager so far.

 

[Swansman]

Thats a good stat. Leeds on the 16th Jan is the mid point of this season, hopefully we are not in the relegation zone at that point it will at least give me some hope for the rest of the season.

We went 8 games between the Newcastle and Aston Villa wins and 10 games between Bournemouth and Arsenal wins. We are currently on a 7 game winless streak. You have to admit that this is his toughest time as a manager so far.

Yes it is. On the pitch at least - think nothing beats Swansea in difficult work environment.

 

[vagabond]

Not sure. Six games without a win in 2014 (5 losses, 1 draw) maybe. Dont know what the change was.

In every single season of his manager career his teams ended up either the same position or better as halfway through the season and hopefully this will be the case in 20/21 as well.

I’m Potter in, but I doubt the pressure was the same for him in Sweden compared to now. Or was it?

The PL and it’s profile, social media, tv, discussions, and of course the huge money at stake. This has to be the biggest challenge GP has faced yet.

 

[Swansman]

I’m Potter in, but I doubt the pressure was the same for him in Sweden compared to now. Or was it?

The PL and it’s profile, social media, tv, discussions, and of course the huge money at stake. This has to be the biggest challenge GP has faced yet.

Very little pressure in Östersund indeed.

PL is definitely the toughest league and his biggest challenge, though managing Swansea where the owners hated the club (and the CEO who hired Potter and subsequently got fired when he stopped Dan James and Leroy Fer from moving on January transfer deadline) was probably challenging in another way.

 

[andy1980]

Yes it is. On the pitch at least - think nothing beats Swansea in difficult work environment.

My worry is if we go down, then we will be doing what Swansea did and sell our top players and use our academy players. It sounds like his job is safe even if we do go down, so his Swansea experience might come in handy.

As I said on another thread. I think Potter is doing everything well except winning. I wish I had your faith in him still, but since the West Ham and now Arsenal games I am finding it hard to see past the 5 League wins in the whole of 2020. I just can't see what he is going to do differently to change that awful stat.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

So we are not in a relegation spot at the moment but for some reason the teams below us will do better from now on than us

Fulham and Burnley might. Both have had an uptick in form. Parker has sorted out Fulham’s defence. If I see an uptick in form from us I will say the same but very little evidence so far.

 

[Guinness Boy]

So from that logic then you’re saying that the teams below us Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United won’t be able to catch us anyway so no need to worry, we’re staying up.

You're as bad as Plooks. There is no chance of Sheffield United catching us but every chance of Fulham because they are improving and we are not. The question is "how do we get to 40 points"? I expect Fulham to end up nearer to that total than us. For a start they'll take a point or three away from the Amex.

 

[neilbard]

I’m Potter in, but I doubt the pressure was the same for him in Sweden compared to now. Or was it?

The PL and it’s profile, social media, tv, discussions, and of course the huge money at stake. This has to be the biggest challenge GP has faced yet.

But the guy is bulletproof no pressure, Bloom has openly stated that to achieve the masterplan we may have to forfeit our Premier League status at some point along the way.

For me Bloom is covering all the bases, Potter is going nowhere and we will just have to suck it up as supporters..

Keep the faith..

 

[Swansman]

My worry is if we go down, then we will be doing what Swansea did and sell our top players and use our academy players. It sounds like his job is safe even if we do go down, so his Swansea experience might come in handy.

As I said on another thread. I think Potter is doing everything well except winning. I wish I had your faith in him still, but since the West Ham and now Arsenal games I am finding it hard to see past the 5 League wins in the whole of 2020. I just can't see what he is going to do differently to change that awful stat.

I dont think TB would do a Swansea. Yes a few key players would be sold, thats how it is, but no way would he do absolutely everything to get rid of every single player he could get rid of. The yank Swansea owners thought they bought a big sports company that would bring in lots of cash and when they got relegated they just wanted got their money back, realising there is no cash in the Championship. TB probably sees Brighton as a lot more than some sports corporation that will make him bucks.

Good thing GP is not the only one who could do things different, theres about 25 guys in the squad who could different things from last year as well - and I think some of them will.

 

[Swansman]

You're as bad as Plooks. There is no chance of Sheffield United catching us but every chance of Fulham because they are improving and we are not. The question is "how do we get to 40 points"? I expect Fulham to end up nearer to that total than us. For a start they'll take a point or three away from the Amex.

But these developments where Fulham are supposedly improving and Brighton supposedly are not, are permanent and etched in stone? You are as bad as junior.