[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Seaview Seagull]

The ease with which Putin takes control of Ukraine and the extent of the involvement avoidance by NATO may well determine how emboldened Putin feels to begin to take NATO on, initially in the Baltic States and then in Romania, Bulgaria etc. His long game goal is the re-establishment of the territorial boundaries of the former USSR and chillingly he is emerging as a man of his word with few, if any, scruples regarding how this is achieved. This could be a long, irreversible descent into hell.

I think we all knew that Putin would win militarily in the end but no one could imagine the amazing resistance put up by the Ukrainian people. As others said he's unlikely to win the peace. Strategically he has managed to unite the West as never before. The key now is to maintain that unity in the long term.

I was never one for high defence spending but I understand the need now to defend ourselves and Europe against a barbarian (Putin, not Russians as a whole.)

On a more positive note, I have bought a 3rd choice blue and yellow Albion shirt with profits going to refugee support. It would be great for any one with one to wear it for Liverpool game.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The ease with which Putin takes control of Ukraine and the extent of the involvement avoidance by NATO may well determine how emboldened Putin feels to begin to take NATO on, initially in the Baltic States and then in Romania, Bulgaria etc. His long game goal is the re-establishment of the territorial boundaries of the former USSR and chillingly he is emerging as a man of his word with few, if any, scruples regarding how this is achieved. This could be a long, irreversible descent into hell.

Putin has a large army and powerful weapons, but are utterly ramshackle. Western analysts will now be convinced that if there was a conventional war between Russia and NATO, Russia would be battered out of sight in days.

They are going to get worse for Russian military might with an economy in tatters.

All Russia have which justifies being taken seriously at that level are nukes and utter disregard for life.

 

[Bry Nylon]

All Russia have which justifies being taken seriously at that level are nukes and utter disregard for life.

Yeah. But APART from the nukes and an utter disregard for life, why should we take Russia seriously?

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

All Russia have which justifies being taken seriously at that level are nukes and utter disregard for life.

Sadly that is why we have to worry this could all go Pete Tong

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I think we all knew that Putin would win militarily in the end but no one could imagine the amazing resistance put up by the Ukrainian people. As others said he's unlikely to win the peace. Strategically he has managed to unite the West as never before. The key now is to maintain that unity in the long term.

I was never one for high defence spending but I understand the need now to defend ourselves and Europe against a barbarian (Putin, not Russians as a whole.)

On a more positive note, I have bought a 3rd choice blue and yellow Albion shirt with profits going to refugee support. It would be great for any one with one to wear it for Liverpool game.

He's got to take the cities yet, that will be the hard part. All they've done so far is take villages, airport and motorway. I'm not sure how many of his troops will fancy urban warfare. So expect to see starvation tactics, environmental destruction and more indiscriminate rocket launches

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

Moscow stock exchange suspended for a third day. There is going to be an almighty crash when it does finally open.
Suspending might not have been a good idea as everyone will be itching to get in and sell.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Putin has a large army and powerful weapons, but are utterly ramshackle. Western analysts will now be convinced that if there was a conventional war between Russia and NATO, Russia would be battered out of sight in days.

They are going to get worse for Russian military might with an economy in tatters.

All Russia have which justifies being taken seriously at that level are nukes and utter disregard for life.

The question it raises are how good are his nukes. His advisors will constantly be telling Putin how great they are.

Of course he only needs 1 to work for disaster.

My view is that corrupt officials all the way up the chain have siphoned money from the defence budget and we now see the shambolic results - of course overwhelming numbers have somewhat mitigated this.

 

[nicko31]

Entering just one NATO state would trigger a full-scale, probably (and regrettably) nuclear, war with the west. It’s not going to be a gradual land grab of the Baltics, nation-by-nation.

I have no idea how this will end and the significance of that ending for non-Ukrainians, but this won’t turn into a steady, Hitleresque invasion of Eastern Europe - it will escalate too quickly for that to happen. The existence of NATO and nuclear weapons changes the dynamic completely.

Interesting to hear what people think NATO would do if Putin entered Finland. Not in NATO but NATO ready....

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Interesting to hear what people think NATO would do if Putin entered Finland. Not in NATO but NATO ready....

Let's hope it doesn't come to that, but Finland is known as a graveyard for Russian soldiers. I don't think he'll want that at the same time as the killing fields of Ukraine.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Interesting to hear what people think NATO would do if Putin entered Finland. Not in NATO but NATO ready....

I think that by the time Putin has taken and tried to hold Ukraine, it will be near impossible to find the money and the forces to go on another expedition anywhere.

If they did, I still think NATO wouldn't get involved

 

[Greavsey]

The question it raises are how good are his nukes. His advisors will constantly be telling Putin how great they are.

Of course he only needs 1 to work for disaster.

My view is that corrupt officials all the way up the chain have siphoned money from the defence budget and we now see the shambolic results - of course overwhelming numbers have somewhat mitigated this.

The nuke doesn't even need to work though for disaster. Just the launch will bring retaliatory strikes from NATO, and the rest is history...

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

This will be very much a Pyrrhic victory for putin.
It has shown that they can’t plan an invasion, quality of the soldiery and just what shot state the Russian military is in.

I suspect that many in NATO thought that this was going to be a walk in the park for the Russians.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Surport Local Team]

PLEASE READ: Apologies if this has already been posted...
Russian population in general is not aware of the war waged by Putin in Ukraine.

You may help to enlighten them:

1. On the Internet, find photographs of remnants of Russian tanks, warplanes, killed soldiers; damaged houses, infrastructure in Ukraine.

2. Open Google maps (also, many Russians use Yandex)

3. Find any sightseeing attractions (shopping malls, restaurants, schools, branches of the Russian Orthodox Church, etc.) in Russian cities/towns/villages.

4. Choose Top Rated category for them.

5. Express your opinion on the war and add photographs of remnants of Russian tanks, planes, killed Ukrainian nationals, damaged houses, infrastructure.

Additional source:
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko

Brilliant, just brilliant, I have now done this to about 20 places in St Petersburg, restaurants, stake park, shops lol

 

[Eric the meek]

Does anyone have any data on just how much the war is costing Russia? The cost must be enormous, just in ammo, missiles, keeping the troops fed and keeping all the vehicles on the move if they can.

Then there's the lost equipment and vehicles destroyed, abandoned or captured.

This is at the same time as what seems to be the whole world being united in its determination to destroy the Russian economy. I see the ruble has today fallen further to 0.0089 USD - less than one cent.

Update: now it's 0.0087 USD.

 

[Poojah]

Interesting to hear what people think NATO would do if Putin entered Finland. Not in NATO but NATO ready....

My personal opinion, and I don’t pretend to be geopolitically intelligent enough to understand the full dynamics, is that NATO will not fire a bullet in anger in Russia’s direction so long as they remain outside NATO territory. Whether you call that appeasement or pacification, the stakes are just too high.

That said, I doubt Putin would go into Finland as there’s no narrative for it. It’s not an ex-Soviet nation, nor can it pose a conceivable threat to Russia’s security. Moldova would be a more obvious target, however I think Ukraine will pose a sufficient challenge for the foreseeable future.

How this escalates, assuming it does, will more likely be a case of the scale of Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine truly crossing the line and / or Putin being angered by the scale and effect of western, non-military retaliation. This is a very complex and delicate situation.

 

[Gabbafella]

Hi. Im just going to put this out there again.

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/helpforukraine2?utm_term=ydKJBYqNm

Weve raised £855 in the first 24 hours thanks to some very generous donations including at least 2 members of this forum. Thanks to them and any others that have or will donate.
For background, we have managed to secure some space in a container going to Poland on Saturday. The cost of the transport will be met by me personally and every single penny raised via the justgiving page will be spent on essential items for the refugees fleeing this invasion.

I'm sure you won't mind, but I've posted the link on my Instagram, hopefully it will help a little bit.
I'll donate on my lunch.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The nuke doesn't even need to work though for disaster. Just the launch will bring retaliatory strikes from NATO, and the rest is history...

Good point.

 

[Happy Exile]

Does anyone have any data on just how much the war is costing Russia? The cost must be enormous, just in ammo, missiles, keeping the troops fed and keeping all the vehicles on the move if they can.

Then there's the lost equipment and vehicles destroyed, abandoned or captured.

This is at the same time as what seems to be the whole world being united in its determination to destroy the Russian economy. I see the ruble has today fallen further to 0.0089 USD - less than one cent.

I was wondering this as well, and read somewhere, but can't remember the source now or how they got the figure but it was linked in some way to the impact of sanctions over time, that it's around $15 billion a day for Putin to keep the war going. A quick Google suggests each tank that gets destroyed costs around $3 million, those personnel carriers around $500,000 so all those images we're seeing of burnt out convoys are incredibly expensive in financial, as well as human terms. Given any future occupation is highly unlikely to be peaceful it's difficult to see that cost changing much.

When it comes to replacing the equipment, Russia spends around $60 billion a year on it's military, so with sanctions kicking in drastically reducing their ability to raise money it's going to take them a long time to build back up again.

 

[The Clamp]

Does anyone have any data on just how much the war is costing Russia? The cost must be enormous, just in ammo, missiles, keeping the troops fed and keeping all the vehicles on the move if they can.

Then there's the lost equipment and vehicles destroyed, abandoned or captured.

This is at the same time as what seems to be the whole world being united in its determination to destroy the Russian economy. I see the ruble has today fallen further to 0.0089 USD - less than one cent.

Update: now it's 0.0087 USD.

The equivalent of £20m a day, I believe.

 

[beorhthelm]

When it comes to replacing the equipment, Russia spends around $60 billion a year on it's military, so with sanctions kicking in drastically reducing their ability to raise money it's going to take them a long time to build back up again.

question is where that money has been going, it doesnt look like its into the main army.