Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[The Clamp]

What happens to the 25% or are you suggesting that 25% are anti vac..if so where does that figure come from?
Also where does that leave the people who can’t take a vaccine for say medical reasons

There would of course be dispensation for those unable to have the vaccine.

75% is the figure to focus on, it’s a reasonable point to introduce the “passport”. Of course, we’d carry on vaccinations beyond that point. I would guesstimate perhaps 0.5-1% of the population would be anti vacine. Approximately the same figure for people unable to receive the vaccination on medical grounds.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

There is no way on earth that a scenario where telling people they may be able to have a meal out in three months' time but only if it's a nice day, can be described as optimistic. It's miserably pessimistic. And once we're immune and the numbers suffering and dying are negligible, the idea that we should waste the summer hiding away "just in case" is not pessimistic, it's sadistic. It's an evil thought and those "Whitehall sources" need to lock themselves in prison for the rest of their lives to see if they change their minds.

What do I tell an 88 year old suffering with depression? That the government thinks it's better that you should die of depression at home than that you should go out and take the risk of catching a disease that you are immune to? Here's news for the government. A vaccinated pensioner who goes out this summer may indeed have a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying of coronavirus. Well, unless and until they reduce her chances of dying in the next year to less than 1 in 1,000, those are good odds. We will take them.

Imperial released another model last night which again showed thousands a day dying in summer, someone needs to get hold of these clowns and tell them to shut up, they are now doing serious damage.

It is starting to look like they dont want to let go of the attention

 

[crodonilson]

Imperial released another model last night which again showed thousands a day dying in summer, someone needs to get hold of these clowns and tell them to shut up, they are now doing serious damage.

It is starting to look like they dont want to let go of the attention

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9263607/Imperial-College-expert-warns-against-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-soon.html

This one?? Quite chilling on the face of it and seems to suggest lockdown remains until September. I'd like to think at least in small bubbles outdoors we will have some limited opportunities to mix with families and friends over summer with the 1m+ social distancing rules in operation.

 

[beorhthelm]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9263607/Imperial-College-expert-warns-against-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-soon.html

This one?? Quite chilling on the face of it and seems to suggest lockdown remains until September. I'd like to think at least in small bubbles outdoors we will have some limited opportunities to mix with families and friends over summer with the 1m+ social distancing rules in operation.

we can see the simulation here. the defaults assume 20% vaccination and R=2.3 (peculiar as it suggests rising), does indeed lead to high deaths next winter. change vaccination to 75% population and the R=1 (being pessimistic) and the infection, hospitalisation and death rates literally disappear. its also notable the model shows we should have exceeded critical care beds last month and peak hospitalisation of 35k which would be about half the infections, which we did not see.

 

[dsr-burnley]

we can see the simulation here. the defaults assume 20% vaccination and R=2.3 (peculiar as it suggests rising), does indeed lead to high deaths next winter. change vaccination to 75% population and the R=1 (being pessimistic) and the infection, hospitalisation and death rates literally disappear. its also notable the model shows we should have exceeded critical care beds last month and peak hospitalisation of 35k which would be about half the infections, which we did not see.

If vaccination is so high, then how will R=2.4 when most of the people an infected person would meet, are immune? I think they are also assuming that the vaccine has no effect on the number of viruses that are inside you, it just miraculously stops them working. Which isn't how any other vaccine works.

 

[A1X]

The quickest and safest way to get back to normal is once we have reached 75% vaccination in all criteria groups, to only allow access to transport, venues, restaurants, gyms, supermarkets etc to those that have been vaccinated.

The idiot anti vaccers can sit at home thinking about how retarded they are while the normal people get on with our lives in relative safety.

Which means that the younger generations, who have sacrificed the most of anyone to protect the elderly in this pandemic, will presumably continue to be locked out of society waiting for a jab because they're last on the list?

 

[dsr-burnley]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9263607/Imperial-College-expert-warns-against-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-soon.html

This one?? Quite chilling on the face of it and seems to suggest lockdown remains until September. I'd like to think at least in small bubbles outdoors we will have some limited opportunities to mix with families and friends over summer with the 1m+ social distancing rules in operation.

That particular model made certain assumptions:

1. Everyone who isn't vaccinated will get coronavirus;
2. If a vaccinated person gets the disease, the vaccine has no effect on severity;
3. Summer makes no difference to the virus.

All of which are wrong. Forget that model.

 

[The Clamp]

Which means that the younger generations, who have sacrificed the most of anyone to protect the elderly in this pandemic, will presumably continue to be locked out of society waiting for a jab because they're last on the list?

No. It wouldn’t work that way. Note I said 75% of all age groups, not of overall population. But don’t forget some younger people who have sacrificed the most, working on Covid wards and care homes will have had the jab by now.

It’s just a suggestion. That’s what some health think tanks were proposing on the news last night and it made sense. They explained it far better than I have though!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9263607/Imperial-College-expert-warns-against-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-soon.html

This one?? Quite chilling on the face of it and seems to suggest lockdown remains until September. I'd like to think at least in small bubbles outdoors we will have some limited opportunities to mix with families and friends over summer with the 1m+ social distancing rules in operation.

How about they do a positive one?

 

[darkwolf666]

Interesting my wife has today received an email from that nice Mr Hancock telling her to carry on shielding until the end of March.

This must have some impact on the way out for the majority - locking away the vulnerable to release the rest... oh well, only a year shielding then!

 

[LamieRobertson]

Interesting interview hosted by the excellent Freddie Sayers

https://youtu.be/Q3TV1OZgWmM

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Interesting my wife has today received an email from that nice Mr Hancock telling her to carry on shielding until the end of March.

This must have some impact on the way out for the majority - locking away the vulnerable to release the rest... oh well, only a year shielding then!

She’s had jab 1?

I get there there is an element of wait and see - but she’s fairly well protected now?

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Interesting my wife has today received an email from that nice Mr Hancock telling her to carry on shielding until the end of March.

This must have some impact on the way out for the majority - locking away the vulnerable to release the rest... oh well, only a year shielding then!

I have also received his timely update this afternoon.

Based on this extension and the shielding population being increased by 1.7m I’ve taken this to indicate there will be some relaxation in a fortnight or so allowing for the additional 1.7m to be offered a jab.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[darkwolf666]

She’s had jab 1?

I get there there is an element of wait and see - but she’s fairly well protected now?

Yes, she had her first vaccination a couple of weeks ago - just wondered why if things are improving so much to allow talk of relaxation, they have extended the date to shield.

Actually the answer is probably there for me to see, start to release restrictions while at the same time keeping the vulnerable out of the firing line!


PS - as an aside, nothing is known at this stage regarding protection levels for those with blood cancer, so I can’t actively share your confidence that she is “well protected” at this stage.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Yes, she had her first vaccination a couple of weeks ago - just wondered why if things are improving so much to allow talk of relaxation, they have extended the date to shield.

Actually the answer is probably there for me to see, start to release restrictions while at the same time keeping the vulnerable out of the firing line!


PS - as an aside, nothing is known at this stage regarding protection levels for those with blood cancer, so I can’t actively share your confidence that she is “well protected” at this stage.

Telegraph are reporting it has to get down to 1k a day case wise. That’s not happening for a while

 

[crodonilson]

Telegraph are reporting it has to get down to 1k a day case wise. That’s not happening for a while

Optimistically they think that could happen by April 9th but with schools returning, while I hope cases will still drop I think the rate they're dropping by will be more shallow so mid May would be a more realistic estimate.

 

[The Wizard]

If true it’s a total and utter disgrace, there will be absolutely nothing left of the economy and the time between ‘easing’ is HIGHER than last year without a vaccine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nt-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

I know it’s in the mail so might not be true but it’s got me riled up.

 

[dazzer6666]

Optimistically they think that could happen by April 9th but with schools returning, while I hope cases will still drop I think the rate they're dropping by will be more shallow so mid May would be a more realistic estimate.

Be interesting to see how the curve continues once the schools reopen (I don’t there will be many, if any, other relaxation of restrictions for 2-3 weeks after that to allow the effect to be measured) .........they’ve dropped from almost 70k to around 10k in a little over a month.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Telegraph are reporting it has to get down to 1k a day case wise. That’s not happening for a while

What they're saying, I suppose, is that even if the vaccine reduces the current fatality rate of 1% down to a tenth of that, that would still be 1 person per day dying of coronavirus, which would increase the normal summer average daily deaths from 1,500 to 1,501 which is unacceptable.

I suppose if you work on the basis that poverty and unemployment and depression and despair add nothing at all to death rates, and that quality of life is irrelevant so a year of misery and loneliness is better than 364 happy days, then it makes sense. Alice Through the Looking Glass would have approved.

 

[atomised]

What they're saying, I suppose, is that even if the vaccine reduces the current fatality rate of 1% down to a tenth of that, that would still be 1 person per day dying of coronavirus, which would increase the normal summer average daily deaths from 1,500 to 1,501 which is unacceptable.

I suppose if you work on the basis that poverty and unemployment and depression and despair add nothing at all to death rates, and that quality of life is irrelevant so a year of misery and loneliness is better than 364 happy days, then it makes sense. Alice Through the Looking Glass would have approved.

Whilst all deaths are tragic if one extra per day is deemed unacceptable we are stuck with this cycle for years and I don't think I can cope with that. Only quoted to respond to that point within your post. Don't think you agree with continued restrictions beyond a certain point at all