Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[dsr-burnley]

It will be sensible, certainly for next Autumn and WInter to proceed very, very carefully and so I think there will be a tihtening of restrictions in September after whatever freedoms we are given over the Summer but in a typical year as many as 20,000 people can die from flu and nobody really bats an eyelid so even Chris Whitty has said once the public/government is comfortable with the number of deaths it's producing as it is unlikely to be eradicated in the near future we will go back to some sort of a normal way of life (although I think facemasks and some social distancing, enhanced hygiene measures may be here for good).

Here's our fundamental difference of principle. You look on freedoms as something to be given us by the government. I look on freedoms as a fundamental human right which the government can take away only in extreme circumstances.

 

[e77]

My suspicion is they won't be looking at anything much past getting the schools open again.

It needs to be statistics based, not timetable based.

 

[vegster]

All a bit of a guess but providing data trend continues (infections, hospitalisations and deaths all very significantly down) and vacc prog delivers (and data confirms the vulnerable have been protected by the first jab), maybe something like :

-Schools during March
-More outdoor mixing (rule of 6 etc) maybe end March/early April, along with shops and services reopening
-Hospitality sometime after Easter (with limitations - maybe max one or two households per table etc)
-effectively Tier 2 type restrictions around the end of April/early May (so maybe a game or two with 2000 at the Amex)
-some semblance of normality early June but with some restrictions likely continuing (rapid regional lockdowns, masks in certain settings etc)

And possibly actually having a working track and trace system and constant refinement and boosters of the Covid vaccine as new variants appear.

 

[dazzer6666]

My suspicion is they won't be looking at anything much past getting the schools open again.

It needs to be statistics based, not timetable based.

Agree. They’ll have a whole range of options based on various data outcomes, but won’t publish it........will drip out as time goes on

 

[crodonilson]

Sunday papers all appear to be pointing towards non essential retail opening in Kate March and hospitality by April. Absolutely outrageous, Virus can no longer claim to be following the science when much of SAGE have recommended lockdown extensions until at least May.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Sunday papers all appear to be pointing towards non essential retail opening in Kate March and hospitality by April. Absolutely outrageous, Virus can no longer claim to be following the science when much of SAGE have recommended lockdown extensions until at least May.

Have SAGE made any recommendations at all about this road map, that we have seen? We have heard a fair bit from grandstanding freelancers on the committee, but isn't there a fair chance that the reason they are grandstanding is because they don't agree with the majority view?

 

[Weststander]

My suspicion is they won't be looking at anything much past getting the schools open again.

It needs to be statistics based, not timetable based.

My guess, other than schools on 8th March.

After Easter weekend, shops and a load of other stuff to open. That’s 7 weeks away, the UK’s vaccinating an average of 450,000 a day so by then 36.6m vaccinated, all vulnerable groups covered and 20m more. Or a combination with a lower first dose total, but the most vulnerable have received their second jab.

I wonder if the governments of the 4 nations will leave it a couple of weeks later until after the school holidays, to prevent the mad scenes last year when travel became possible?

 

[Weststander]

Have SAGE made any recommendations at all about this road map, that we have seen? We have heard a fair bit from grandstanding freelancers on the committee, but isn't there a fair chance that the reason they are grandstanding is because they don't agree with the majority view?

SAGE and the government are avoiding “roadmaps” full stop.

When Johnson, Sturgeon et al were pressured into that last spring, they ended up having to later row back on decisions made.

This time the focus is solely on defeating the CV19 variants first.

 

[Mellotron]

From what I’ve seen leaked/reported, any easings on March 8th - bar schools - are not ones that will effect the R rate whatsoever.

Golf and Tennis allowed - within a few days of 8th March.
Can meet someone from another household outside for a coffee - I have to admit, I’ve not done it but thought this was probably allowed already!
Can have a picnic outside with members of your household - this will make no difference whatsoever. I guess it’s just a behavioural nudge.

 

[crodonilson]

Members of sage have estimated the opening of schools could add as much as 0.5 to the R rate, it would be absolutely folly to open all schools in one big bang and tip the R rate above 1 and send us back into lockdown by mid April. Everything needs to be slow and with a review of the actual data to see what difference every reopening makes to cases. Only primary schools that are covid secure should be opening as early as 8th March.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Members of sage have estimated the opening of schools could add as much as 0.5 to the R rate, it would be absolutely folly to open all schools in one big bang and tip the R rate above 1 and send us back into lockdown by mid April. Everything needs to be slow and with a review of the actual data to see what difference every reopening makes to cases. Only primary schools that are covid secure should be opening as early as 8th March.

I would like to know, not debate as this is the Good News Thread, what exactly 'Covid secure' means as wherever there are people about especially crammed into small spaces, I can't comprehend it.

 

[GREASED WEASEL]

Feb 22nd you say?

 

[dsr-burnley]

Members of sage have estimated the opening of schools could add as much as 0.5 to the R rate, it would be absolutely folly to open all schools in one big bang and tip the R rate above 1 and send us back into lockdown by mid April. Everything needs to be slow and with a review of the actual data to see what difference every reopening makes to cases. Only primary schools that are covid secure should be opening as early as 8th March.

But it seems that the R number is pretty useless. Here's why.

In the three weeks 26th December to 16th January, there were 1,084,790 positive tests for coronavirus. The R number, they tell us, was over 1 throughout that period, which means that on average each of those people will infect more than 1 other person and those cases will generate a further 1,085,791 cases at least.

But in the period since then, another 4 weeks, a further 583,585 cases have been found. At least 502,216 cases are missing. There are literally only 3 reasons why this might be:

1. Although the amount of testing has increased, it is now failing to identify half the cases that it would have found a few weeks ago.
2. These people infected before 16th January haven't finished spreading the virus yet and the number of cases is going to rocket.
3. The R rate is meaningless, or virtually so, when counting the number of cases.

There are two current ways of looking at whether the number of cases is increasing or decreasing. The R rate says it has been increasing since July but is now gently decreasing; or there is actually counting the cases, which says that the number of cases is dropping by 25% per week. If the theoretical data doesn't match the actual data, then the theory is wrong.

[Edit to add] At the very least, if the R rate was over 1 throughout January, then we know that having an R rate above 1 does not stop cases, hospitalisations, and deaths all coming down quite rapidly. So the R rate being above 1 does not mean the disease is spreading.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I would like to know, not debate as this is the Good News Thread, what exactly 'Covid secure' means as wherever there are people about especially crammed into small spaces, I can't comprehend it.

Sorry, got the thread hopelessly wrong. Oops.

 

[darkwolf666]

He’s my roadmap.

Everyone over 65 (that want it) vaccinated:

Schools back
All shops open
Pubs and cinemas open

Everyone over 50 (that want it) vaccinated:

Everything back to normal.

I really want to call you a selfish cnnt, but after 12 months of this shit I understand where you are coming from.

I would just like to put on record my thanks to all those that have followed the rules to help the old and vulnerable - thank you!

 

[e77]

As I have said it needs to be infection rate based and not timetable based. I still don't think we are going to see much more than school's going back initially.

 

[sparkie]

Members of sage have estimated the opening of schools could add as much as 0.5 to the R rate, it would be absolutely folly to open all schools in one big bang and tip the R rate above 1 and send us back into lockdown by mid April. Everything needs to be slow and with a review of the actual data to see what difference every reopening makes to cases. Only primary schools that are covid secure should be opening as early as 8th March.

I must admit I am totally baffled why they haven't waited until after the Easter holidays. All for the sake of 3 weeks where instead they could really have hammered down the R number and saved lives as a result.

 

[crodonilson]

I must admit I am totally baffled why they haven't waited until after the Easter holidays. All for the sake of 3 weeks where instead they could really have hammered down the R number and saved lives as a result.

3 weeks for children to mix, pick it up, take it back for their parents and then 2 weeks Easter holidays where it looks like restrictions may be relaxed, families allowed to mix up and spread it further. Absolutely madness and we'll have a big spike in cases and be back in retreat with further lockdown potentially by the end of April if cases rise substantially again and take off.

 

[crodonilson]

I would like to know, not debate as this is the Good News Thread, what exactly 'Covid secure' means as wherever there are people about especially crammed into small spaces, I can't comprehend it.

The Volley here in Lyme I would describe as Covid secure, when we went over last summer they were excellent. All customer facing staff had enhanced grade face masks, face visors and gloves on. It was table service only, you had to wear your mask unless you were eating or drinking and there was 2m space between tables, plus all windows and doors were open to allow for proper ventilation. Me and Mrs Crodo felt very safe.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The Volley here in Lyme I would describe as Covid secure, when we went over last summer they were excellent. All customer facing staff had enhanced grade face masks, face visors and gloves on. It was table service only, you had to wear your mask unless you were eating or drinking and there was 2m space between tables, plus all windows and doors were open to allow for proper ventilation. Me and Mrs Crodo felt very safe.

I wonder if there is a choice to continue getting bail outs or opening up and paying for more covid secure measures and limited numbers pubs and restaurants will actually stay shut.