Play off chances

[sydney]

I think we have the players and the style to go all the way but the mental strength of this team and the ability to miss chances and be bullied by physical teams seem to be our downfall.
innit...!

 

[Icy Gull]

So how do you explain that Wigan had managerial upheavals MID-SEASON and are flying past us? Smacks of excuses to me, if you are a good manager you can make an impact on a team reasonably quickly

Agreed, we are in the mix and Oscar has had enough time to "get" the Championship. He did well when we had the injuries and unrest but given where we are now that excuse cannot be used if we fail to make it.

I get the impression that you are less than convinced by Oscar?

 

[Icy Gull]

My answer is we should make the play-offs with our squad but various stumbles mean it will go to last day between us and Reading. Play-off tournaments usually favour the tactically bold adventurous teams so that's us at a disadvantage straight away

Again I have to agree, we will be the outsiders, should we get there if tactics remain the same.

 

[brightonmark1234]

i said before the season started we wont get in play offs and i am sticking to that but i hope i am wrong

 

[chez]

Voted other as I don't think we'll get in them. However if we do get in them I back us to go up as we have already been losing finalists & losing semi finalists.

 

[Bold Seagull]

We've got 17pts from our last 10 games, Reading have got 18pts, Ipswich 15pts, Forest 10pts. It's going to be tough for any of these teams to get in the playoffs, it's an incredibly tough league (if anyone hadn't noticed over the past 2.75 seasons). To be fair our form is only fractionally worse than Reading's, but better than both Ipswich (despite the defeat) and Forest (obviously).

2 pts per game should get us there in my opinion. 4 pts from the next 2 and it has still been a very good March.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I have absolutely no idea because we are so inconsistent.

It feels like we'll finish 8th unless either Hoskins, Orlandi or Lingard really come to the party and give us a 'X' Factor we haven't had all season.

Right now, if we made the play-offs you'd expect we'd be playing Derby in the semis and Wigan in the Final. Without this 'X' Factor I don't think we have much of a chance but you never know.

 

[Rugrat]

We've got 17pts from our last 10 games, Reading have got 18pts, Ipswich 15pts, Forest 10pts. It's going to be tough for any of these teams to get in the playoffs, it's an incredibly tough league (if anyone hadn't noticed over the past 2.75 seasons). To be fair our form is only fractionally worse than Reading's, but better than both Ipswich (despite the defeat) and Forest (obviously).

2 pts per game should get us there in my opinion. 4 pts from the next 2 and it has still been a very good March.

Reading's next batch of games look a lot more winnable than ours. If we are still on their tails after our away game at Leics then we have a chance.

2 points a game will be enough but (right now) I can't see how we get there

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

We won't get there.

Even if by some miracle we get promoted, this team would be annihilated in the Premierwhateveritscalledthesedays.

Quite likely, but whatever makes you think our current team would be the one actually playing in the Premierthing? IF we managed to get up, at least half the squad would be on their way, or bench material at best.

 

[B.W.]

It is definitely a lottery. You have too be in it to win it tho.

 

[keaton]

While i've not been massively impressed with our performances recently, we are still in with a shout, Reading look like a worse version than us and Forest could go either way with a new coach. I could see us making the play-offs but I can't see us getting past Wigan, Derby or QPR when we get there. BUt then Palace were the worst team going into last year's play-offs.

 

[The Camel]

The play offs most definitely are not a lottery.

The team most likely to win are the one who finished 3rd, followed by the team who came 4th etc etc

 

[Husty]

The play offs most definitely are not a lottery.

The team most likely to win are the one who finished 3rd, followed by the team who came 4th etc etc

Then why don't the stats show this?

 

[the wanderbus]

And yet we are three points behind 6th with a game in hand. You must know the Queen quite well.

Even if we win that game in hand we wont be in the top six because we don't score enough goals, we have a weak midfield since Crofts injury, play slow laborious football and the continued inability to come from behind. It all sort of points to her Majesty not needing to invest in a bottle of pussyglide anytime soon.

 

[The Camel]

Then why don't the stats show this?

The sample size is far too small to be significant as yet

Once we've played 500 years worth of play offs a meaningful pattern will emerge.

And the 3rd best team in the division will have won the play offs most often.

 

[The Camel]

As a guess

the 3rd place team will it ~ 30% of the time
4th ~ 26%
5th ~ 23%
6th ~ 21%

 

[the wanderbus]

So how do you explain that Wigan had managerial upheavals MID-SEASON and are flying past us? Smacks of excuses to me, if you are a good manager you can make an impact on a team reasonably quickly

Wigan also have the luxury of having a better squad to start with. I stated in September that our squad is weaker this season than last , how much that is down to the prolonged sacking of Poyet I don't know but I'm certain it must have had some bearing on recruitment and that we were playing catch up before a ball had been kicked. You may have seen on another thread that I think we are over achieving by being as high as we are so I'm not knocking the side but they are just not good enough for the play offs. Oscar talked the talk when he arrived, lets wait till next season when he has had a full pre season and maybe brought in a few players to see if he can walk the walk.

 

[Bold Seagull]

As a guess

the 3rd place team will it ~ 30% of the time
4th ~ 26%
5th ~ 23%
6th ~ 21%

Even over a sample of 20 years:
3rd - 8 (40%)
4th - 2 (10%)
5th - 6 (30%)
6th - 4 (20%)

4th is the anomaly over this short period. As you've said you'd need to do this over a longer time frame.

If you think of the semi-finals, the winners of 3rd vs 6th have won the playoffs 12 times out of 20.

 

[The Camel]

Even over a sample of 20 years:
3rd - 8 (40%)
4th - 2 (10%)
5th - 6 (30%)
6th - 4 (20%)

4th is the anomaly over this short period. As you've said you'd need to do this over a longer time frame.

If you think of the semi-finals, the winners of 3rd vs 6th have won the playoffs 12 times out of 20.

The gap between 3rd and 4th compared to the gap between 4th and 5th will be much bigger because 3rd place have much the easiest semi final.

Plus the nearer to mid table you get the more the teams are "much of a muchness".

So usually the gaps in ability between places gets narrower as you get nearer mid table.

 

[The Camel]

Even over a sample of 20 years:
3rd - 8 (40%)
4th - 2 (10%)
5th - 6 (30%)
6th - 4 (20%)

4th is the anomaly over this short period. As you've said you'd need to do this over a longer time frame.

If you think of the semi-finals, the winners of 3rd vs 6th have won the playoffs 12 times out of 20.

That stat of the 3rd place finisher winning its semi 60% of the time is very interesting.

I'd guess the 4th v 5th semi will end up more like 53% v 47% over the long run.

All interesting stuff!