[Albion] Palace Fans Biggest Fear

[Benzhiyi]

Moaning to Brighton fans of all people about underperforming your Xpts is fairly ironic.

Moaning? Not how that post was intended. I was simply trying to provide a counter-argument to those who claim that cup wins are about luck, whereas league results are down to ability/form/class/whatever. Rest assured I have nothing to moan about on the football front at this moment in time. Never loved the sport more, or my team more, than over the last couple of weeks.

Maybe it’s a generational thing. I’m 45. Growing up, the FA Cup was majestic. I inhaled all the build up, every year, Saint & Greasie, Abide With Me, every minute of every match. Keith Houchen’s diving header, Dave Beasant’s penalty save, Des Walker’s own goal, I can remember where I was for them all. I even owned the little Subbuteo version which took pride of place next to my Amstrad CPC 464+.

So to be at Wembley, to see my team lift that precious trophy… the final whistle, watching them climb the steps, the celebrations afterwards – there has never been a moment like that one in my time following sport. Football is cyclical. I’ve experienced promotions and relegations. Untold wins and losses. Being there, live, when we blew the Euros final against Italy on pens. Hell, I even missed the deciding penalty in an REMF game once upon a time and was devastated for months. Positively or negatively, in terms of the pure emotional of following a team, none of them compare to a fortnight ago in North London.

Palace will lose Guehi and Wharton and Eze at some point. We might get spanked in every Europa League game next season. We'll win matches at the Amex, and get turned over by you guys at Selhurst. Eventually, our Premier League run will end. So be it. Again, football is cyclical. But none of those events can take away that feeling. That sheer joy of the final whistle going and your team has won a trophy you grew up coveting, dreaming of, mildly obsessed by. I'll be replaying it over and over and over for the rest of my days. No big-name signing, no league placing, no derby result can compare. So, trying to engage in a nuanced conversation about luck, XG, and so forth? Sure. Moaning? Never.

 

[nicko31]

Following on from Bozza's keep two from five. Glasner has said that Palace won't lose 'all of' their star players this summer, so what do our Palace guests think about who are their most important players to keep? Which two from five would you do everything to have next year?

Guehi - Seems most likely. In the last year of his contract and linked to quite a few;
Mateta - Also expiring in June 26 and at 28 would be the clubs last chance to stick or twist;
Eze - Palace's biggest financial asset, linked with Spurs and Arsenal. Will the fee be needed to bolster the squad?
Wharton - Similar dilemma to Eze. Liverpool sniffing;
Glasner himself - Being linked to Tottenham and RB Leipzig.

I heard they were renewing some cladding to tempt players to stay

 

[schmunk]

Palace will lose Guehi and Wharton and Eze.... ....We.... ....get spanked in every Europa League game.... .....next season. We'll.... .....get turned over by you guys at Selhurst.... .....our Premier League run will end.

Sorry, your post was too long so I had to paraphrase. I'm with you 100%.

 

[Berty23]

I look forward to seeing Eze and Wharton at teams who pass the ball about a bit. It will be interesting to see how they get on. Very different role to the one they currently have.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

That sheer joy of the final whistle going and your team has won a trophy you grew up coveting, dreaming of, mildly obsessed by. I'll be replaying it over and over and over for the rest of my days. No big-name signing, no league placing, no derby result can compare.

And there it is.
That's all you really came on here to say.
Your "nuanced" argument was pulled apart within 2 minutes.

You've won the FA cup.
We know.
Well done, now f*** off.

 

[Stato]

Moaning? Not how that post was intended. I was simply trying to provide a counter-argument to those who claim that cup wins are about luck, whereas league results are down to ability/form/class/whatever. Rest assured I have nothing to moan about on the football front at this moment in time. Never loved the sport more, or my team more, than over the last couple of weeks.

Maybe it’s a generational thing. I’m 45. Growing up, the FA Cup was majestic. I inhaled all the build up, every year, Saint & Greasie, Abide With Me, every minute of every match. Keith Houchen’s diving header, Dave Beasant’s penalty save, Des Walker’s own goal, I can remember where I was for them all. I even owned the little Subbuteo version which took pride of place next to my Amstrad CPFC 464+.

So to be at Wembley, to see my team lift that precious trophy… the final whistle, watching them climb the steps, the celebrations afterwards – there has never been a moment like that one in my time following sport. Football is cyclical. I’ve experienced promotions and relegations. Untold wins and losses. Being there, live, when we blew the Euros final against Italy on pens. Hell, I even missed the deciding penalty in an REMF game once upon a time and was devastated for months. Positively or negatively, in terms of the pure emotional of following a team, none of them compare to a fortnight ago in North London.

Palace will lose Guehi and Wharton and Eze at some point. We might get spanked in every Europa League game next season. We'll win matches at the Amex, and get turned over by you guys at Selhurst. Eventually, our Premier League run will end. So be it. Again, football is cyclical. But none of those events can take away that feeling. That sheer joy of the final whistle going and your team has won a trophy you grew up coveting, dreaming of, mildly obsessed by. I'll be replaying it over and over and over for the rest of my days. No big-name signing, no league placing, no derby result can compare. So, trying to engage in a nuanced conversation about luck, XG, and so forth? Sure. Moaning? Never.

The term 'moaning' was chosen very lightly. The rest of your post appears to be you taking the opportunity to say how great it was for you. Hurrah for you.

Whilst we're all football fans and don't need to be told how good it feels to win, you know that we're not exactly the most sympathetic audience for someone who wants to celebrate a Palace success, so it comes across as trolling. Especially as you seem to have spun away from your 'nuanced' question which I and other posters answered genuinely and you now admit that you didn't want an answer to.

If you actually do want an answer. The counter argument you offer fails before it begins by equating underperforming Xpts with luck. It also seems too obvious to state, but luck will be a much larger factor in a six game tournament than in a 38 game tournament, especially if ties are drawn out of the hat. Every team that wins the Cup needs its share of luck. Palace had more than their fair share in not having their keeper appropriately penalised by officials who chose the occasion over the rules. Of course Brighton fans will raise that and of course that won't matter in the slightest to any ecstatic Palace fans. bar those for whom the win weirdly wasn't enough, who headed to NSC seeking out a bit of schadenfreude.

If we win a major trophy in my lifetime, I'll be happy to admit to any accusation of luck from rivals whilst displaying a huge grin. It wouldn't matter to me in the slightest.

 

[Stato]

And there it is.
That's all you really came on here to say.
Your "nuanced" argument was pulled apart within 2 minutes.

You've won the FA cup.
We know.
Well done, now f*** off.

Read your post after writing mine.

Brevity really is the soul of wit.

 

[AstroSloth]

Combined Palace/Brighton 11:

Henderson

Munoz Van Hecke Lacroix Guehi Mitchell

Wharton Baleba

Eze Mitoma

Matata

I said the other day that only 2 of your players (Van Hecke and Baleba) would get into our starting 11, I was wrong, Mitoma gets into this over Sarr on 2nd thoughts, Sarr has more goal/assists this season but Mitoma has been very good for a while now.
That team right there would be a Top 5 side IMO.

Notice that you're using your formation there, one of Pedro, Rutter or any number of our other 10's gets in ahead of one of your CB's in a 4-2-3-1.

Mitchell also debatable, Estupinan has had injury issues but is still a top player, Kadioglu also better.

The biggest difference lies in those players who aren't in the starting XI. Our starting XI players who don't make the combined team are better than those of Palace who don't make it in.

 

[AstroSloth]

Palace fan here in peace.

Many of you have stated that our cup win was all down to luck (three Premier league sides, only two home fixtures, one goal conceded in the entire run – come on now), and implied that luck evens out in the league – so apparently the final table doesn't lie.

I'm therefore intrigued to hear your reactions to a feature Opta published last week, looking back on the past league season. It names Bournemouth and Palace as the two unluckiest clubs in the league, and summarises that if luck did indeed even out over the season then Palace would have finished 8th, with Brighton 9th. (And Forest, astonishingly, 13th.)

Which Premier League Teams Finished in Wrong Position According to Opta's Expected Points Table? | Opta Analyst

We analyse the 2024-25 Premier League expected points table; put crudely, what the table ‘should’ look like based on each team’s underlying numbers.

theanalyst.com

But this doesn't just come down to luck does it? It's expected points. Our players over performing their xG could just mean they're better at finishing than yours? Or that we give up less high value chances and as such the higher xG against doesn't come to fruition.

You can't just look at that and call it an analysis, you have to look at finer details.

 

[Benzhiyi]

The term 'moaning' was chosen very lightly. The rest of your post appears to be you taking the opportunity to say how great it was for you. Hurrah for you.

Whilst we're all football fans and don't need to be told how good it feels to win, you know that we're not exactly the most sympathetic audience for someone who wants to celebrate a Palace success, so it comes across as trolling. Especially as you seem to have spun away from your 'nuanced' question which I and other posters answered genuinely and you now admit that you didn't want an answer to.

If you actually do want an answer. The counter argument you offer fails before it begins by equating underperforming Xpts with luck. It also seems too obvious to state, but luck will be a much larger factor in a six game tournament than in a 38 game tournament, especially if ties are drawn out of the hat. Every team that wins the Cup needs its share of luck. Palace had more than their fair share in not having their keeper appropriately penalised by officials who chose the occasion over the rules. Of course Brighton fans will raise that and of course that won't matter in the slightest to any ecstatic Palace fans. bar those for whom the win weirdly wasn't enough, who headed to NSC seeking out a bit of schadenfreude.

If we win a major trophy in my lifetime, I'll be happy to admit to any accusation of luck from rivals whilst displaying a huge grin. It wouldn't matter to me in the slightest.

I appreciate the nuanced reply, rather than resorting to abuse.


There are tens of thousands of micro-incidents in any football match so to me, putting a single win or loss down to pure ‘luck’ is something 13-year-olds do in the playground.

You sound like a fan who can understand nuance. Surely you recognise this?

For example, in the final, we got incredibly fortunate with one referring decision. Absolutely. But the way some of you guys are spinning it, nothing else happened in 100 minutes of football. You completely ignore Glasner’s game planning, a soft penalty where Silva goes down before contact (if that’s Wilfried Zaha at the Amex you are all screaming with rage for weeks afterwards], some incredible discipline against one of the world’s best teams [how many free kicks around the box, or silly yellows, did we concede? None), and our own second half luck. We lost our captain and most influential defender when he took a ball to the face from his own midfielder, and had to readjust tactically with a CDM at CB for 30 minutes. How unlucky is that? How many of you have mentioned that in your ‘analysis’ of the final?

Apparently we had a lucky cup run. We only conceded one goal in six football matches, three against strong Premier League opposition, but supposedly this was nothing to do with our manager or defence or goalkeeper. ‘Luck’. We went to Craven Cottage, where Fulham had only lost three times in the league, and dismantled them. ‘Luck’. We comprehensively outplayed Villa for a fifth consecutive time under Glasner, yet you give him and the players no credit, simply claiming that our opposition didn’t turn up. ‘Luck’. Or perhaps Villa didn’t get a sniff that day because Glasner's gameplan and tactics were correct, and Palace wanted it more?

Anyway, I also take your point that this is going to fall on deaf ears. f***ing off now, as requested. Thank you for engaging respectfully, as I did in my original post.

 

[Stato]

Mitchell also debatable, Estupinan has had injury issues but is still a top player, Kadioglu also better.

Not debatable. It's not even close. If you look at WhoScored.com's season ratings, Pervis is placed 58 spots above Mitchell. According to Transfermarkt, he's also worth more money despite being two years older and not being a HGP. He has more goals and nearly as many assists as Mitchell in half the number of EPL games. Pervis has 46 caps, 4 international goals and has captained his country. Mitchell has 2. His national manager has repeatedly played a right back out of position rather than trust him. Mitchell wouldn't even be able to wave his FA Cup medal as Pervis won a Europa league winners medal with Villareal. If offered a swap deal, Glasner would be running the paperwork down here before we changed our mind, whilst Tony would be asking plus how much?

 

[jimhigham]

So to be at Wembley, to see my team lift that precious trophy… the final whistle, watching them climb the steps, the celebrations afterwards – there has never been a moment like that one in my time following sport. Football is cyclical. I’ve experienced promotions and relegations. Untold wins and losses. Being there, live, when we blew the Euros final against Italy on pens. Hell, I even missed the deciding penalty in an REMF game once upon a time and was devastated for months. Positively or negatively, in terms of the pure emotional of following a team, none of them compare to a fortnight ago in North London.

Yep. That got me. That’s what it’s all about. I won’t pretend otherwise. It burns me that your lot got their first and there’s no guarantee we’ll ever get there at all. I’m hopeful. We’re knocking on the door but… it may never happen and you’ve got it in the bank.

Dead, dead jealous.

 

[AstroSloth]

Not debatable. It's not even close. If you look at WhoScored.com's season ratings, Pervis is placed 58 spots above Mitchell. According to Transfermarkt, he's also worth more money despite being two years older and not being a HGP. He has more goals and nearly as many assists as Mitchell in half the number of EPL games. Pervis has 46 caps, 4 international goals and has captained his country. Mitchell has 2. His national manager has repeatedly played a right back out of position rather than trust him. Mitchell wouldn't even be able to wave his FA Cup medal as Pervis won a Europa league winners medal with Villareal. If offered a swap deal, Glasner would be running the paperwork down here before we changed our mind, whilst Tony would be asking plus how much?

I was being kind, don't want to upset our kind visitors too much and scare them off, it's extra ad revenue for @Bozza

 

[Seagull58]

Moaning? Not how that post was intended. I was simply trying to provide a counter-argument to those who claim that cup wins are about luck, whereas league results are down to ability/form/class/whatever. Rest assured I have nothing to moan about on the football front at this moment in time. Never loved the sport more, or my team more, than over the last couple of weeks.

Maybe it’s a generational thing. I’m 45. Growing up, the FA Cup was majestic. I inhaled all the build up, every year, Saint & Greasie, Abide With Me, every minute of every match. Keith Houchen’s diving header, Dave Beasant’s penalty save, Des Walker’s own goal, I can remember where I was for them all. I even owned the little Subbuteo version which took pride of place next to my Amstrad CPC 464+.

So to be at Wembley, to see my team lift that precious trophy… the final whistle, watching them climb the steps, the celebrations afterwards – there has never been a moment like that one in my time following sport. Football is cyclical. I’ve experienced promotions and relegations. Untold wins and losses. Being there, live, when we blew the Euros final against Italy on pens. Hell, I even missed the deciding penalty in an REMF game once upon a time and was devastated for months. Positively or negatively, in terms of the pure emotional of following a team, none of them compare to a fortnight ago in North London.

Palace will lose Guehi and Wharton and Eze at some point. We might get spanked in every Europa League game next season. We'll win matches at the Amex, and get turned over by you guys at Selhurst. Eventually, our Premier League run will end. So be it. Again, football is cyclical. But none of those events can take away that feeling. That sheer joy of the final whistle going and your team has won a trophy you grew up coveting, dreaming of, mildly obsessed by. I'll be replaying it over and over and over for the rest of my days. No big-name signing, no league placing, no derby result can compare. So, trying to engage in a nuanced conversation about luck, XG, and so forth? Sure. Moaning? Never.

You should be thanking Attwell and Gillett for gifting you the FA Cup every single day of your remaining life. Oh, and you can thank the Orc for bottling his opportunity to take the penalty too.
Your team Hodgson'ed their way to the cup. Well done.

 

[Seagull58]

Palace fan here in peace.

Many of you have stated that our cup win was all down to luck (three Premier league sides, only two home fixtures, one goal conceded in the entire run – come on now), and implied that luck evens out in the league – so apparently the final table doesn't lie.

I'm therefore intrigued to hear your reactions to a feature Opta published last week, looking back on the past league season. It names Bournemouth and Palace as the two unluckiest clubs in the league, and summarises that if luck did indeed even out over the season then Palace would have finished 8th, with Brighton 9th. (And Forest, astonishingly, 13th.)

Which Premier League Teams Finished in Wrong Position According to Opta's Expected Points Table? | Opta Analyst

We analyse the 2024-25 Premier League expected points table; put crudely, what the table ‘should’ look like based on each team’s underlying numbers.

theanalyst.com

xG is not a measure of luck. You have completely misunderstood it. xG is a measure of how well you execute your goalscoring opportunities.
Seemingly, you are shit at converting them.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Now, to lighten the mood, let's talk about Pilarses potential expulsion from Europe!

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Now, to lighten the mood, let's talk about Pilarses potential expulsion from Europe!

It's not going to happen.

But it's funny all the while it remains possible.