[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Doc Lynam]

They won votes in the May council elections but comparatively few compared to the three other main parties. Reform won hundreds compared to their thousands.

Since then, they’ve won one out of many by-elections.

The media are giving the impression they are doing well, but the media is fickle and will also broadcast every error and omission.

It also highlights the bind that nigella is in. His power is across the pond, shown in his willingness to give Donald vinegar strokes on request, whilst recognising that to the major population Donald is toxic. Nigella is a used car sales man who’s stock is running out of date.

 

[Lenny Rider]

It also highlights the bind that nigella is in. His power is across the pond, shown in his willingness to give Donald vinegar strokes on request, whilst recognising that to the major population Donald is toxic. Nigella is a used car sales man who’s stock is running out of date.

He didn’t elaborate but I was in Marbella on Thursday night, had a meal at La Sala, Gary Hobson‘s restaurant (highly recommend it) got talking to a bloke at the bar up the road, got on to the subject of Reform, he claimed the tabloid press/popular media do have something serious on Farage, but it’s 4 years till the next GE so they are biding their time.

It was like having a Corona with the Riddler

 

[DJ NOBO]

I can explain my absence if it helps...

1. Whilst any kind of u-turn is welcome, we have no specifics yet.

2. What has played out to date has been utterly dreadful. All the blatant lies about how they had to remove the benefit for poverty-stricken pensioners, how they literally had "no choice" to subject some of the poorest in our society to a winter of misery.

3. The only reason for the u-turn is ballot-box pressure and has nothing to do with simply doing the right thing.

And beyond the shameful way Labour have treated some old folk who deserve better, their inability to read the room (or, if they could read it, their refusal to react to it) has opened the door for Farage and his band of misfits.

WFA was terribly handled but the principle of means testing WFA is bang on. one example - my nicely off (courtesy of house price inflation and final salary pensions )in laws Wfa goes towards their west stand Amex season tickets. And they won’t go cold this winter.

 

[Chicken Run]

I can explain my absence if it helps...

1. Whilst any kind of u-turn is welcome, we have no specifics yet.

2. What has played out to date has been utterly dreadful. All the blatant lies about how they had to remove the benefit for poverty-stricken pensioners, how they literally had "no choice" to subject some of the poorest in our society to a winter of misery.

3. The only reason for the u-turn is ballot-box pressure and has nothing to do with simply doing the right thing.

And beyond the shameful way Labour have treated some old folk who deserve better, their inability to read the room (or, if they could read it, their refusal to react to it) has opened the door for Farage and his band of misfits.

Tbf loads of Labour Party supporters on here flocked to congratulate Boris on his Marcus Rashford. U Turn

Marcus Rashford forces Boris Johnson into second U-turn on child food poverty

The PM called the footballer on Saturday night to confirm latest about-face for the government

www.theguardian.com

 

[Guinness Boy]

He’s quite possibly going to get the same result. With our rediculous FPTP system, Reform would get a parliamentary majority if they carried their current polling figures through to the 2029 GE.

Going from five seats to an overall majority is almost impossible. They may get enough to try and form a coalition. I can’t see anyone working with them, however, for the same reason they can’t seem to run their new councils. Because they’ll bring in a cohort of flagshaggers who can’t spell legislation and couldn’t run a bath.

 

[Chicken Run]

If you’re talking about WFA , it was terribly handled but the principle of means testing WFA bang on. I know because my nicely off (courtesy of house price inflation )in laws Wfa goes towards their Amex season ticket!

Fair point but it’s always neighbours and in laws isn’t it

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Fair point but it’s always neighbours and in laws isn’t it

I stated clearly I used it towards Christmas presents. I don’t think I am a neighbour nor an in-law to anyone on NSC.

I also think it should be means tested instead of universal but Labour took the easy way out by saying Pension Credit was the limit.

 

[A1X]

I recall many dire predictions at the time, did anyone actually produce any stats as to whether and how many actually did find themselves hospitalised (or worse) as a result of the policy?

 

[Brian Munich]

Going from five seats to an overall majority is almost impossible. They may get enough to try and form a coalition. I can’t see anyone working with them, however, for the same reason they can’t seem to run their new councils. Because they’ll bring in a cohort of flagshaggers who can’t spell legislation and couldn’t run a bath.

Why is it impossible? Electoral Calculus suggests they need approx 31% of the popular vote for a parliamentary majority. They’re currrently polling in these numbers.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Fair point but it’s always neighbours and in laws isn’t it

As I stated at the time, my Mother was living in a one bedroom council property on the basic state pension and was insistent she didn't need it and "it should go to some of these young struggling families instead", and she was very near the cut off. I would have been getting it in under a couple of years and I don't need it.

I also stated at the time, that there was a relatively small group around that cut off, (people who didn't claim benefits that they were entitled to, people close to the limit who had very low incomes) that should be addressed by raising the cut off in some way. It appears that this is what they are now going to do.

I have no absolutely idea of my neighbours financial situations and my in-laws are long dead, so no it isn't

 

[WATFORD zero]

I can explain my absence if it helps...

1. Whilst any kind of u-turn is welcome, we have no specifics yet.

2. What has played out to date has been utterly dreadful. All the blatant lies about how they had to remove the benefit for poverty-stricken pensioners, how they literally had "no choice" to subject some of the poorest in our society to a winter of misery.

3. The only reason for the u-turn is ballot-box pressure and has nothing to do with simply doing the right thing.

And beyond the shameful way Labour have treated some old folk who deserve better, their inability to read the room (or, if they could read it, their refusal to react to it) has opened the door for Farage and his band of misfits.

That particular door was smashed off it's hinges by Farage and Johnson the best part of 10 years ago. I would be absolutely stunned if there was any significant number of people now voting Reform who didn't vote Brexit. That's not down to Starmer

 

[Bozza]

WFA was terribly handled but the principle of means testing WFA is bang on. one example - my nicely off (courtesy of house price inflation and final salary pensions )in laws Wfa goes towards their west stand Amex season tickets. And they won’t go cold this winter.

Indeed - I absolutely agree we can spend money better than giving a benefit to wealthy oldies who use the money on small batch gin subscriptions or extra spends for their annual winter trip to the Algarve.

I said as much many times over.

But as well as taking it away from those rich folk, it was taken away from a lot of people who absolutely needed it to try to stay warm.

A small percentage of a big number is still a big number. Many hundreds of thousands of people needed that money last winter but, presumably in an attempt to appear strong on one of their first major policy decisions, the new government kept it in place...

...until the ballot box told them what they should have known anyway - they'd f***ed up massively.

This is going to stick with them for the duration now, regardless of whatever shape their u-turn looks like.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Going from five seats to an overall majority is almost impossible. They may get enough to try and form a coalition. I can’t see anyone working with them, however, for the same reason they can’t seem to run their new councils. Because they’ll bring in a cohort of flagshaggers who can’t spell legislation and couldn’t run a bath.

Also @Brian Munich has got it completely wring. FPTP won't favour reform and allow them more seats than their proportion deserves.

Under FPTP if you score 30% in every constituency (evenly spread support) you will end up with NO seats. Under PR you get 180.

This is why the Liberals and greens have been bleating on about PR for the last million years. They win maybe 70 seats where they have 42% of the vote, but in the others where they have 20-25% of the vote they don't get their 'proportion'. The exact same would apply to Reform (perhaps even worse in their case because they don't have a heartland, with support spread more evenly than that of green and yellow).

Anyone who thinks FPTP will help Reform has got it wrong.

The odd and telling thing is that Farage has not gone balls-deep in favour of electroral reform.
It is almost as if he doesn't want Reform to win power......

 

[Guinness Boy]

Why is it impossible? Electoral Calculus suggests they need approx 31% of the popular vote for a parliamentary majority. They’re currrently polling in these numbers.

*almost* impossible.

I don’t believe their support is strong enough across the whole country. They’ll get huge majorities in a few seats but won’t have the broad support needed to win the necessary FPTP majority.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Indeed - I absolutely agree we can spend money better than giving a benefit to wealthy oldies who use the money on small batch gin subscriptions or extra spends for their annual winter trip to the Algarve.

I said as much many times over.

But as well as taking it away from those rich folk, it was taken away from a lot of people who absolutely needed it to try to stay warm.

A small percentage of a big number is still a big number. Many hundreds of thousands of people needed that money last winter but, presumably in an attempt to appear strong on one of their first major policy decisions, the new government kept it in place...

...until the ballot box told them what they should have known anyway - they'd f***ed up massively.

This is going to stick with them for the duration now, regardless of whatever shape their u-turn looks like.

Yes. Getting the threshold badly wrong, then having to row back looks like incompetence.
I'm disappointed.

 

[darkwolf666]

I stated clearly I used it towards Christmas presents. I don’t think I am a neighbour nor an in-law to anyone on NSC.

I also think it should be means tested instead of universal but Labour took the easy way out by saying Pension Credit was the limit.

Quite simply they set the bar too low and didn't introduce a taper, as with other means tested benefits.

They took the quick, lazy, easy option without thinking about the ramifications...

 

[darkwolf666]

Yes. Getting the threshold badly wrong, then having to row back looks like incompetence.
I'm disappointed.

It wasn't JUST the threshold, the lack of taper was a big, if not even bigger mistake...

 

[A1X]

*almost* impossible.

I don’t believe their support is strong enough across the whole country. They’ll get huge majorities in a few seats but won’t have the broad support needed to win the necessary FPTP majority.

They remind me of Corbyn’s Labour, very popular but only in a small number of seats where they pileup the votes

 

[Peteinblack]

It also highlights the bind that nigella is in. His power is across the pond, shown in his willingness to give Donald vinegar strokes on request, whilst recognising that to the major population Donald is toxic. Nigella is a used car sales man who’s stock is running out of date.

I always think of him as the Arfur Daley of British politics - even down to that fawn-coloured long-coat he sometimes wears!

 

[Brian Munich]

Also @Brian Munich has got it completely wring. FPTP won't favour reform and allow them more seats than their proportion deserves.

Under FPTP if you score 30% in every constituency (evenly spread support) you will end up with NO seats. Under PR you get 180.

This is why the Liberals and greens have been bleating on about PR for the last million years. They win maybe 70 seats where they have 42% of the vote, but in the others where they have 20-25% of the vote they don't get their 'proportion'. The exact same would apply to Reform (perhaps even worse in their case because they don't have a heartland, with support spread more evenly than that of green and yellow).

Anyone who thinks FPTP will help Reform has got it wrong.

The odd and telling thing is that Farage has not gone balls-deep in favour of electroral reform.
It is almost as if he doesn't want Reform to win power......

*almost* impossible.

I don’t believe their support is strong enough across the whole country. They’ll get huge majorities in a few seats but won’t have the broad support needed to win the necessary FPTP majority.

This is not my option, this is the opinion of Electoral Calculus. These are a respective pollster and forecaster with over 30 years of experience, and who are generally well respected for extrapolating trends and getting predictions correct. It's not some political blogger working out of his parents' basement.

Do not bury your head in the sand and dismiss it as wrong just because it doesn't align with what you want or historical precedent for 3rd parties. We will be at a real risk of having a far-right party in power (with a minority popular vote) following the 2029 GE unless Labour and/or the Conservatives start winning votes back off of them.