[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Eeyore]

The SNP are an anomaly as they only contest 57 seats, so that small popular vote is effectively concentrated. The libs do target seats very well, but even last year, when it was accepted that they did this really well, they still only got 72 seats whilst their 12.6% should have got them 82.

The 20% is a very broad estimate, I accept, and a lot depends on the vote share amongst the other 4 national parties. However, there's no doubt that there is a threshold at which all parties will benefit fro FTFP, and at 30% Reform would definitely win a higher proportion than their popular vote.

Yeah, the % polled is normally an outlier unless you have the situation we have at present. In 1987 the SDP Alliance scored 25% of the vote and only 22 seats.

It's different now because of what happened at the last election. As a result of the polarised vote and it's generally even spread, plus the reduction in the number of safe seats, Labour turned around a 60/70 deficit into a huge majority. I thought Reform came second in 70 odd constituencies and third in a significant number.

I suspect in a four party situation and with the least concentrated vote something in the mid-30s would give a majority.

 

[Jackthelad]

A lot of media commentators are not paying attention to what's happening below the surface.

The majority of Reform's 'surging' support is coming from disillusioned Tories who think the Party is not Right-wing enough - who thought that Rishi Sunak was a bit of a Leftie.

To the extent that Labour is losing support, it is mainly to those who think it is not radical enough, and who are turning to the Greens or Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the more the Tories move to the Right to outflank Reform, the more they will lose support from moderate/liberal Conservatives - in last year's general election, 23% of people who voted Tory in 2019 switched to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens.

The Tories were once the Party of the English middle-class, offering continuity, competence, pragmatism, and stability. They are now increasingly an authoritarian populist Party of the working-class, but mainly on the basis of anti-immigrant sentiments and Culture War nonsense - 'owning the libs'. In this transformation, they have lost the support of much of the middle class - hence Shoreham, Worthing, and Weston-super-Mare electing Labour MPs for the first time ever last July.

It’s difficult to know how they would be trusted again by the right. Anyone on the right or left or anywhere politically would have to be pretty naive or stupid to vote for them again.

 

[Brian Munich]

I suspect in a four party situation and with the least concentrated vote something in the mid-30s would give a majority.

That’s literally what happened last year. Vote mainly split between 4 parties plus a not-insignificant 6.9% green vote meant Labour got a huge majority with only 34.7%.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Yeah, the % polled is normally an outlier unless you have the situation we have at present. In 1987 the SDP Alliance scored 25% of the vote and only 22 seats.

It's different now because of what happened at the last election. As a result of the polarised vote and it's generally even spread, plus the reduction in the number of safe seats, Labour turned around a 60/70 deficit into a huge majority. I thought Reform came second in 70 odd constituencies and third in a significant number.

I suspect in a four party situation and with the least concentrated vote something in the mid-30s would give a majority.

I think we could see a party win the most seats, and somewhere near a majority, while not having the most votes or even more than 30%.

 

[A1X]

 

[WATFORD zero]

It is ironic that those most likely to vote Reform in areas most likely to return Reform MPs/Councillors are exactly those most likely to suffer from the implementation of Reform policies in those areas. Their best hope is that the total and utter incompetence and f***wittery displayed by Reform MPs and councillors to date stops them actually implementing what they voted for

You really couldn't make it up

 

[AlbionBro]

Zia left of his own accord and returned days later of his own accord.
Do keep up

Yes, sorry I was judging him as a politician liar like the rest, of course he isn't, so what he said was probably true.

 

[DJ NOBO]

Fair point but it’s always neighbours and in laws isn’t it

Not sure what you mean ? Are you saying well off pensioners getting WFA are hard to find? If so, Not really.

A lot of media commentators are not paying attention to what's happening below the surface.

The majority of Reform's 'surging' support is coming from disillusioned Tories who think the Party is not Right-wing enough - who thought that Rishi Sunak was a bit of a Leftie.

To the extent that Labour is losing support, it is mainly to those who think it is not radical enough, and who are turning to the Greens or Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the more the Tories move to the Right to outflank Reform, the more they will lose support from moderate/liberal Conservatives - in last year's general election, 23% of people who voted Tory in 2019 switched to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens.

The Tories were once the Party of the English middle-class, offering continuity, competence, pragmatism, and stability. They are now increasingly an authoritarian populist Party of the working-class, but mainly on the basis of anti-immigrant sentiments and Culture War nonsense - 'owning the libs'. In this transformation, they have lost the support of much of the middle class - hence Shoreham, Worthing, and Weston-super-Mare electing Labour MPs for the first time ever last July.

Not sure the Tories are the party of anybody. To state , as you do, that’s because they are not right wing enough is to give them the credit they have had a coherent policy in recent years. Their demise is more to do with their total lack of competence.
As for reform - right now they are chaotic, don’t have proper policies and are too Centred on one person. Unelectable.
They will surely be more together by the next election though. Or maybe they will implode Into nothing.

 

[clapham_gull]

So it's ok to leave, change ones mind, go back?

No you are absolutely correct and that includes his colleagues who hastily deleted their tweets when they heard he was coming back.