How do you think Boris has handled it so far ?

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yes, it was Vallance, who is an expert at the heart of government, advising them on the science who, as you seem to be indicating, is highly controversial (which might lead us to question what he's doing there). Beyond the WHO who have been advocating stringent physical distancing/isolation measures and "test, test, test", I've been most persuaded by the regular interventions by Anthony Costello (who also used to work at WHO) and, although I've only just come across it, this article seems as persuasive as I've come across, and was written just before Neil Ferguson's pronounced do-nothing/herd-immunity curves prompted the government to swing into action:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

If you work in (or close to) the field, please post any decent analyses.

Cheers! I work with a modeller (who legged it with his family several weeks ago, as he is vulnerable). If I get anything useful I will of course post it.

Vallance is, like another mate of mine, a 'high achiever' who people become addicted to, regardless of the value of their contribution, owing to their charisma and chutzpah. Fortunately he won't do much harm as he's not calling the shots, and wouldn't want to.

OK just scanned through that link you posted and I agree with it. But it is really a criticism of the missplaced 'herd immunity' claim, in line with my comments above, and showing that Vallance was talking outside his sphere of expertise......

All that said (and I am a labour voting Boris hater) I still think that what the Boris team have done is largely on point. They need to deal with the ventilators, and some other stuff, but it could be a great deal worse. I have to say that I think that total lockdown a la China is wrong and we will see it come back and bite China in the bum later, as the Grauniad article alludes.

Right, time I asked my modeller pal what he things about things now. Will report back....

 

[dazzer6666]

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/31/zoom-meeting-encryption/

Thanks......bit beyond my understanding. If anyone wants to listen in to the often tedious ramblings I have to put up with at work then good luck to them. Zoom has clearly passed our internal geek squad requirements......

 

[beorhthelm]

[tweet]1245046542974750720[/tweet]

an odd one because when i searched chemical reagents earlier, the second link to Peston was this

https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1245041624075374595

and in the news from The Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...sting-kits-threatens-expansion-plan-chglmtm93

note, both before Gove's comments. the shortage has been referenced by US on the 12th March too
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/fd...ure-on-reagents-for-coronavirus-tests/573999/

but now Peston has asked a source and they say theres loads, this is now official news. well i hope the problem is resolved immediatly with the industry providing the necessary products.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yes, it was Vallance, who is an expert at the heart of government, advising them on the science who, as you seem to be indicating, is highly controversial (which might lead us to question what he's doing there). Beyond the WHO who have been advocating stringent physical distancing/isolation measures and "test, test, test", I've been most persuaded by the regular interventions by Anthony Costello (who also used to work at WHO) and, although I've only just come across it, this article seems as persuasive as I've come across, and was written just before Neil Ferguson's pronounced do-nothing/herd-immunity curves prompted the government to swing into action:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

If you work in (or close to) the field, please post any decent analyses.

Well, my modeller pal just emailed me. Here is an edited version (to protect the innocent etc etc). I asked him how's things. He replied very literally. I highlight one comment, and note this comes from someone who is rational and unsentimental. If I have read one thing today to bring a tear to my old eye it was that.

"Health wise it is hard to call. the piss poor testing means there is no idea who is infected. Every day they delay in the uk they get more of the winter flu out of the hospital so that is good. The fact that they have made new massive temp hospitals is promising.

I have no faith in the government. I have complete belief in the nhs, well maybe not management, but the staff will die where they stand. You can not ask for more.

America are ****ed.

Economically it is a great time to have a solid job and a large mortgage, inflation is going to be crazy! (edit - that's my mate being facetious - he has a large mortgage)

Uk car industry is ****ed. Massive drop in demand.

Air travel is a disaster and won’t come back. People will realise zoom is fine."

No pressure and no worries, then....

 

[Albion Dan]

Why are the government lying about testing chemical availability?

Interestingly the NHS CEO on Newsnight also said currently plenty of bed capacity in hospitals. The same man who claimed last week they were at the point of being overwhelmed.

 

[GT49er]

You may have got some thumbs up for this, but a London-based epidemiologist for FIND, Rangarajan Sampath, that advises the government who also works for WHO has just indicated on C4 News that he was advising the government to buy tests, scale up production, etc, etc in early January.

Yes, one epidemiologist, two epidemiologists ..... fly away Peter, fly away Paul .................................

Sure, probably everyone can find an epidemiologist that will satisfy their personal take (or that of the paper they read). The Mail and The Express will broadly support what this government is doing, The Grauniad and The Independent will trawl under every stone to find an 'expert' who says the government are doing it all wrong, The Times will just bore the pants off everybody (as will The Independent). The Telegraph and The Mirror just don't matter any more, and The Sun will just want to find out who's shagging who (and whether they've got big tits).
The government will doubtless have taken advice (probably often conflicting advice) from loads of epidemiologists. The government's job has been - and is - to weigh up the conflicting advice (from the experts, not the papers) and make a balanced decision, hopefully disregarding the crackpots (of whom there will be many). Do you think there's some sort of magic wand alternative to that?

Oh and yes, there's probably a good reason why I've got a fair few thumbs.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Yes, one epidemiologist, two epidemiologists ..... fly away Peter, fly away Paul .................................

Sure, probably everyone can find an epidemiologist that will satisfy their personal take (or that of the paper they read). The Mail and The Express will broadly support what this government is doing, The Grauniad and The Independent will trawl under every stone to find an 'expert' who says the government are doing it all wrong, The Times will just bore the pants off everybody (as will The Independent). The Telegraph and The Mirror just don't matter any more, and The Sun will just want to find out who's shagging who (and whether they've got big tits).
The government will doubtless have taken advice (probably often conflicting advice) from loads of epidemiologists. The government's job has been - and is - to weigh up the conflicting advice (from the experts, not the papers) and make a balanced decision, hopefully disregarding the crackpots (of whom there will be many). Do you think there's some sort of magic wand alternative to that?

Oh and yes, there's probably a good reason why I've got a fair few thumbs.

All bollox, the testing and PPE is rapidly becoming a scandal as news unfolds this morning.
Ramp up this and that, lack of chemicals is fast becoming a huge lie.

 

[nicko31]

Why are the government lying about testing chemical availability?

Interestingly the NHS CEO on Newsnight also said currently plenty of bed capacity in hospitals. The same man who claimed last week they were at the point of being overwhelmed.

Daily Mail now have the knives out regarding test, the Sun putting the boot in as well

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8173735/Damning-truth-nations-testing-scandal.html

Of course it wasn't that long ago they were shaming Junior Doctors for striking...

 

[Hugo Rune]

Daily Mail now have the knives out regarding test, the Sun putting the boot in as well

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8173735/Damning-truth-nations-testing-scandal.html

Of course it wasn't that long ago they were shaming Junior Doctors for striking...

Wow. When a popularist government loses the Sun & Daily Mail, you know that they are in trouble. Those were two publications that would have struggled not to finger point when we see the inevitable increase in death rates have a lot of influence on their readers, I wonder if Cummings can get them back into line? Blaming the public for not self-isolating or staying at home is the front page stories they want.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

He's disappeared like I thought he would, convenient.

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[Bakero]

Daily Mail now have the knives out regarding test, the Sun putting the boot in as well

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8173735/Damning-truth-nations-testing-scandal.html

Of course it wasn't that long ago they were shaming Junior Doctors for striking...

That article states "But Italy had only carried out 47,000 tests as of Monday night – just 783 per million people".

In fact 10 times that number of tests have been conducted, according to what I've read elsewhere.

 

[Bakero]

Yes, one epidemiologist, two epidemiologists ..... fly away Peter, fly away Paul .................................

Sure, probably everyone can find an epidemiologist that will satisfy their personal take (or that of the paper they read). The Mail and The Express will broadly support what this government is doing, The Grauniad and The Independent will trawl under every stone to find an 'expert' who says the government are doing it all wrong, The Times will just bore the pants off everybody (as will The Independent). The Telegraph and The Mirror just don't matter any more, and The Sun will just want to find out who's shagging who (and whether they've got big tits).
The government will doubtless have taken advice (probably often conflicting advice) from loads of epidemiologists. The government's job has been - and is - to weigh up the conflicting advice (from the experts, not the papers) and make a balanced decision, hopefully disregarding the crackpots (of whom there will be many). Do you think there's some sort of magic wand alternative to that?

Oh and yes, there's probably a good reason why I've got a fair few thumbs.

You don't need to look under stones to find the head of the WHO or the editor of the Lancet.

 

[vegster]

Wow. When a popularist government loses the Sun & Daily Mail, you know that they are in trouble. Those were two publications that would have struggled not to finger point when we see the inevitable increase in death rates have a lot of influence on their readers, I wonder if Cummings can get them back into line? Blaming the public for not self-isolating or staying at home is the front page stories they want.

Nowhere near as rabid as they could be, The Express seems well on board with Boris and it would take a series of huge cock ups from the government to shift that. Boris is very much their man and they are sticking with him.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Cheers! I work with a modeller (who legged it with his family several weeks ago, as he is vulnerable). If I get anything useful I will of course post it.

Vallance is, like another mate of mine, a 'high achiever' who people become addicted to, regardless of the value of their contribution, owing to their charisma and chutzpah. Fortunately he won't do much harm as he's not calling the shots, and wouldn't want to.

OK just scanned through that link you posted and I agree with it. But it is really a criticism of the missplaced 'herd immunity' claim, in line with my comments above, and showing that Vallance was talking outside his sphere of expertise......

All that said (and I am a labour voting Boris hater) I still think that what the Boris team have done is largely on point. They need to deal with the ventilators, and some other stuff, but it could be a great deal worse. I have to say that I think that total lockdown a la China is wrong and we will see it come back and bite China in the bum later, as the Grauniad article alludes.

Right, time I asked my modeller pal what he things about things now. Will report back....

It’s also worth noting that Vallance didn’t get his current job because he’s the best brain, he got it more because he was available. And he was available after being booted out of GSK. This was pretty much the first thing Emma Walmsley did after taking over as CEO.

 

[drew]

Not having read the whole thread, I'm struggling to work out exactly what the Government are actually doing well?

They announced they weren't banning large gatherings and a day later Arteta was ill, football programme cancelled and then they ban gatherings.
They announced they weren't closing the schools and then Scotland and Wales did and we followed suit a day later.
They have seemingly failed to be proactive with regard to acquisition of ventilators.
They have seemingly failed to be proactive with regard to testing. Gove yesterday claiming there is a shortage which the industry subsequently dismissed.

Grant Chapps was challenged about the testing and the comparison to Germany and his intellectual comment was that there may be someone in Germany wondering why they weren't organising similar hospitals to the Nightingale? Well Grant, look at the death rate in Germany and compare it to ours.

And with regard to the delivery of PPE for frontline NHS staff, their comments have been an utter joke.

When challenged on something they misdirect and usually refer to things happening 'in the next few days'.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Not having read the whole thread, I'm struggling to work out exactly what the Government are actually doing well?

We’re now seeing the effects of the panic buying as scores of people fled to the Supermarket pre-lockdown to bulk buy and hoard resulting in millions of extra journeys and families across the nation being infected by their nominated ‘shopper’ returning with weeks and weeks of supplies for them as well as Covid-19.

That said, I’d rather be here than the USA, Russia, Iran, Italy or Spain.

 

[drew]

We’re now seeing the effects of the panic buying as scores of people fled to the Supermarket pre-lockdown to bulk buy and hoard resulting in millions of extra journeys and families across the nation being infected by their nominated ‘shopper’ returning with weeks and weeks of supplies for them as well as Covid-19.

That said, I’d rather be here than the USA, Russia, Iran, Italy or Spain.

You keep banging on about panic buying! Far more culpable were all the train journeys of people going to work, packed tube train etc when the country should have been in lockdown. Kids at schools spreading the virus and taking it home.

 

[The Spanish]

Well, my modeller pal just emailed me. Here is an edited version (to protect the innocent etc etc). I asked him how's things. He replied very literally. I highlight one comment, and note this comes from someone who is rational and unsentimental. If I have read one thing today to bring a tear to my old eye it was that.

"Health wise it is hard to call. the piss poor testing means there is no idea who is infected. Every day they delay in the uk they get more of the winter flu out of the hospital so that is good. The fact that they have made new massive temp hospitals is promising.

I have no faith in the government. I have complete belief in the nhs, well maybe not management, but the staff will die where they stand. You can not ask for more.

America are ****ed.

Economically it is a great time to have a solid job and a large mortgage, inflation is going to be crazy! (edit - that's my mate being facetious - he has a large mortgage)

Uk car industry is ****ed. Massive drop in demand.

Air travel is a disaster and won’t come back. People will realise zoom is fine."

No pressure and no worries, then....

People will realise zoom is a ****ing nightmare for trying to do business more like. Cant see the current situation of people shelving business trips to sit up in the middle of the night with the kids asleep to try and do a sales pitch to Singapore in the dark and quietly as being preferable to travelling. Well the accountants will always like that but I find that hard to believe.
what does your pal do to have this insight into aviation?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

People will realise zoom is a ****ing nightmare for trying to do business more like. Cant see the current situation of people shelving business trips to sit up in the middle of the night with the kids asleep to try and do a sales pitch to Singapore in the dark and quietly as being preferable to travelling. Well the accountants will always like that but I find that hard to believe.
what does your pal do to have this insight into aviation?

He flies a lot.

But he's not a business man....

 

[Hugo Rune]

You keep banging on about panic buying! Far more culpable were all the train journeys of people going to work, packed tube train etc when the country should have been in lockdown. Kids at schools spreading the virus and taking it home.

True but these were normal journeys, the panic buying was not something people would normally do and might be the small factor that tips us up to a Spanish or Italian sized disaster.