[Politics] Brexit

[Baldseagull]

That is true, but no deal creates a major problem for Ireland, and let’s be honest will create challenges in EU and U.K. alike.

If politicians on both sides want a deal then I think they will blink.

I may be wrong, but this is difficult for the EU too, do they keep to their red lines and throw a member state Ireland under the bus, or seek a compromise. Here is the eternal problem with the EU, when can national interests of member states Trump the EU’s?

So, there will be tough talking, bicep flexing and willy waving, then a deal will be made.

If the EU believes Britain will not tolerate living in regulatory limbo for long, why would they not let us leave on no deal and wait for us to come back and ask for the withdrawal agreement, as is, to be implemented. Personally I think Parliament will force an extension or revocation of A50, before allowing no deal to happen, even if they didn't quite make that the case yesterday.
Revoking A50 does not mean it cannot be invoked again later, ideally never for me, but I would bet on another GE if it does get revoked. Tories campaigning on a no deal Brexit, and bi-lateral agreements. Labour campaigning on Brexit in name only type arrangements and Libs on remaining, or inserting a referendum on Labours deal v remain if they form a co-alition.

 

[Baldseagull]

i dont think anyone is asking for cake or other silly cliches. just some more amicable arrangement on a particularly difficult issue thats already covered by other bi-lateral treaties. why do you think its acceptable to risk the entire economy of Europe on this issue?

That is a bit rich from someone who voted for the UK to Leave. Why were you willing to risk the UK economy?

 

[beorhthelm]

That is a bit rich from someone who voted for the UK to Leave. Why were you willing to risk the UK economy?

because i believed, maybe foolishly, that a mutually agreed exit and future relationship would have not risked the UK economy. i've changed my view long ago.

 

[nicko31]

If the EU believes Britain will not tolerate living in regulatory limbo for long, why would they not let us leave on no deal and wait for us to come back and ask for the withdrawal agreement, as is, to be implemented. Personally I think Parliament will force an extension or revocation of A50, before allowing no deal to happen, even if they didn't quite make that the case yesterday.
Revoking A50 does not mean it cannot be invoked again later, ideally never for me, but I would bet on another GE if it does get revoked. Tories campaigning on a no deal Brexit, and bi-lateral agreements. Labour campaigning on Brexit in name only type arrangements and Libs on remaining, or inserting a referendum on Labours deal v remain if they form a co-alition.

Could the Tories realistically hold it together campaigning for a no deal Brexit?

 

[Rodney Thomas]

That is true, but no deal creates a major problem for Ireland, and let’s be honest will create challenges in EU and U.K. alike.

If politicians on both sides want a deal then I think they will blink.

I may be wrong, but this is difficult for the EU too, do they keep to their red lines and throw a member state Ireland under the bus, or seek a compromise. Here is the eternal problem with the EU, when can national interests of member states Trump the EU’s?

So, there will be tough talking, bicep flexing and willy waving, then a deal will be made.

But the question is, what compromise can they make? The Tory party / DUP wont accept other options, therefore whatever the EU suggests won't be satisfactory. Thus, if the backstop suits Ireland and the alternatives wouldn't be accepted in Britain, one can hardly pin this on the EU (which is what the government and papers want to try and do).

 

[Baldseagull]

because i believed, maybe foolishly, that a mutually agreed exit and future relationship would have not risked the UK economy. i've changed my view long ago.

Fair comment.

 

[Baldseagull]

Could the Tories realistically hold it together campaigning for a no deal Brexit?

Depends on who gets the nod as leader, but yes, it would look similar to Swiss arrangements at the end of all the bi-lateral agreements. The Irish border would still be an issue, but with the EU less able to dictate the terms of the remedy.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

This is all very well, negotiations with Switzerland are in a state of flux with the EU currently stating they will not recognise exiting agreements blah blah blah.

They won’t put up border checks because it’s not in anyone’s interests to do so,

Rules are for the blind obedience of fools and the guidance of wise men.....

But you're happy to abide by WTO rules.

 

[WATFORD zero]

What's that, we have land border with the EU but we don't want a border ?

When did this happen then, as I can see that being problematic.

Maybe someone should have mentioned it 2.5 years ago

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Just like the referendum? Oh you mean the one where ALL the parties stated categorically that they would abide by the vote, and the one which both Labour and Conservatives said they would honour in their election manifesto? Oh that........

But neither Tory or Labour has said it will not honour the vote. The whole controversy revolves not around that but around determining what sort of Brexit it was people voted for. Claims that it was definitely hard, soft or something in between are just whistling in the wind by people trying to promote their own definition.

For example, one leading politician says people definitely didn't vote to become poorer, another says they definitely voted to leave the customs union. They can't both be right. Or wrong.

It is entirely probable that most MPs on either side of the debate feel that they are fulfilling the obligation placed on them to act in the national interest. Their different interpretations of this are, I suggest, usually genuine - whether it is that we should away without a deal, or ask the people to reconsider before departure takes place.

 

[Gwylan]

because i believed, maybe foolishly, that a mutually agreed exit and future relationship would have not risked the UK economy. i've changed my view long ago.

Good point of view, it's mine also. I thought that the government would want a smooth a deal as possible, working in close co-operation with the EU, but setting off on its own path.

I genuinely believe this would have been possible but the government has made one bad decision after another and we're not even close to where I thought we'd be.

 

[Simster]

1) what does that matter, do i have to coalesce around a single Brexit narrative? I have maintained a consistent view on the EU on this board pre Brexit, during the ref, and since. Just because i am one voice singing in the darkness does not make me wrong, Group think is dangerous.....ask Galileo. My side is grounded in socialism, i cam live with it that i am in a minority, it merely proves my eternal point about how many tories there are on here.......i include you in that lot obviously.

Your insistence that I am a Tory only serves to highlight your political ignorance I'm afraid - the same political ignorance that suggests I'm happy to swallow your points when you consistently post links to prove them that end up doing nothing of the sort. Come on, you're better than that - and the same goes for pulling up someone for writing the word "father" and augmenting it with a pathetic and risible "my old man's a dustman" routine. Plenty of people write (or sing) words they might not say - unless you're writing off half of working class South Wales for daring to sing "Land of my fathers"? As for your point here, I accept that it is well made, except to say that it side-steps the point I was making. You say you want Brexit to further socialism, I say that remaining protects workers more than leaving because this country continues to vote the Conservatives into power when faced with a socialist alternative. Hell, even when the Tories are this appalling, socialist-led Labour are still nowhere near them, sadly - and I mean "sadly". I'm not socialist but they would do no worse than this shower. So yes, your lone voice does not make you wrong, but it is devoid of any pragmatism.

2) what is the problem in NI, it's the EU that need borders not us.......with the rising prices for food etc i would have thought Brexit was a good opportunity for ROI to maximise their commercial advantage over the poverty stricken north. Their entrenched position re backstop makes me wonder if they are not more worried with it working the other way. In any event the EU borders non EU switzerland and other countries without difficulties. Its only political point scoring and ego that is preventing a solution.

For you to say this suggests to me that you fundamentally misunderstand why border controls are ever necessary. In order to have frictionless borders, you need three planks in place:

1) an approximate alignment of tariffs. Where tariffs differ between two neighbouring economic zones, you need checks. In a practical example, tariffs into the EU are the same regardless of where you enter the zone, so currently it makes no difference whether a ship docks into Belfast or Ireland's Bantry Bay. This is what the Customs Union is for. However, if the EU and UK are different zones, that is no longer the case.
2) an alignment of regulations. Currently, member states in the EU economic zone are governed by the same regulations (well, almost but I'll come to that in #3). That means that we all know what sort of chicken we're seeing packed in supermarkets because it has all conformed to the same standards. This bit is otherwise known as the single market. When the UK leaves, we are no longer governed by those regulations and we can start chlorinating it chicken if we like to increase shelf life. The EU considers this quite revolting of course, and will need to check chicken flowing into its member states. (The same could apply the other way round of course)
3) where 2 member states disagree over the implementation of regulations in #2, you need a court to arbitrate and make that decision. By leaving the EU, we're insisting on bailing out of this too.

So where any one of those 3 planks are missing, you need a border. That's just a fact. Wales and England? All 3 boxes ticked, no problem. Netherlands and Belgium? Same again. Now look at an interesting example: Sweden and Norway. Norway is inside the single market, accepts EFTA Court jurisdiction, but is OUTSIDE the common market. Result? There are borders all across Sweden and Norway. Customs on either side will only stop lorries and trade vehicles because Norway is in the single market (accepting freedom of movement) and in Schengen by association, but it is not inside the customs union.

So advanced, closely aligned nations like Norway and Sweden HAVE customs - because they have to. Anyone who thinks there will be no border after Brexit is deluded. Not surprisingly, senior Brexit people continue to spin lies and bullshit about how new technology make it unnecessary. It is simply a lie and it is certainly not "egos and political point scoring" preventing it. That is just meaningless shite designed to make you feel better about hating the EU.

 

[A1X]

Meanwhile, in "entirely predictable outcomes which the Government failed to factor in"

[TWEET]1090412455057084416[/TWEET]

 

[Gwylan]

Plenty of people write (or sing) words they might not say - unless you're writing off half of working class South Wales for daring to sing "Land of my fathers"?

Not arguing with the rest of your post but this struck me as odd. I have heard the Welsh anthem sung many, many times, I've never once heard it in English (and Welsh doesn't have the distinction that English has - the word for father and dad are the same. In fact, the word 'dad' comes from Welsh 'tad').

 

[Gwylan]

Meanwhile, in "entirely predictable outcomes which the Government failed to factor in"

I mentioned this earlier. If (and it's a big if) the backstop is renegotiated, we'd clearly have to the give some concession to the EU. Personally, I think Gibraltar would be an easy one; in the referendum, 97% wanted to stay in the EU so ceding the place to Spain would be in line with the citizens' wishes.

It would certainly be easier than conceding ground on fishing rights or by paying more to the EU

 

[A1X]

I mentioned this earlier. If (and it's a big if) the backstop is renegotiated, we'd clearly have to the give some concession to the EU. Personally, I think Gibraltar would be an easy one; in the referendum, 97% wanted to stay in the EU so ceding the place to Spain would be in line with the citizens' wishes.

It would certainly be easier than conceding ground on fishing rights or by paying more to the EU

Probably right. Plus, for all the bluster, are the Brexiters really prepared to die on a hill for Gibraltar and risk their main prize? My guess is probably not. It's not even like we've been to war to defend it like the Falklands, there'd be some initial heat but ultimately it'd be something akin to Hong Kong in all likelihood.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Not arguing with the rest of your post but this struck me as odd. I have heard the Welsh anthem sung many, many times, I've never once heard it in English (and Welsh doesn't have the distinction that English has - the word for father and dad are the same. In fact, the word 'dad' comes from Welsh 'tad').

But what's welsh for 'old man' because apparently father (and therefor Dad or Tad in welsh) would only be used by the middle classes if you were to believe certain people on here

I mentioned this earlier. If (and it's a big if) the backstop is renegotiated, we'd clearly have to the give some concession to the EU. Personally, I think Gibraltar would be an easy one; in the referendum, 97% wanted to stay in the EU so ceding the place to Spain would be in line with the citizens' wishes.

It would certainly be easier than conceding ground on fishing rights or by paying more to the EU

It would seem logical but, I'm sure you would agree, so would staying in the customs union.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I mentioned this earlier. If (and it's a big if) the backstop is renegotiated, we'd clearly have to the give some concession to the EU. Personally, I think Gibraltar would be an easy one; in the referendum, 97% wanted to stay in the EU so ceding the place to Spain would be in line with the citizens' wishes.

It would certainly be easier than conceding ground on fishing rights or by paying more to the EU

Nearly 99% rejected joint sovereignty with Spain when they had a referendum on that issue, though I appreciate to many Brexiteers the bigger prize makes them expendable. The backstop wont be renegotiated though.

 

[Baker lite]

58 days to go.




On our way .

 

[Gwylan]

But what's welsh for 'old man' because apparently father (and therefor Dad or Tad in welsh) would only be used by the middle classes if you were to believe certain people on here

Hen ddyn - never heard that used to mean father though. Middle class or otherwise

Nearly 99% rejected joint sovereignty with Spain when they had a referendum on that issue, though I appreciate to many Brexiteers the bigger prize makes them expendable. The backstop wont be renegotiated though.

Yes, but that referendum was prior to the EU one. I wonder if that has changed now

I do agree, however, that it's unlikely that the backstop would be renegotiated