[Politics] Brexit

[The Rivet]

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

• Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

• The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the ‘A8’ East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

• EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

• Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

• New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

• There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UKborn workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

• EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing
• European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).

• The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Naïve. So ridiculously naïve.

 

[portslade seagull]

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

• Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

• The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the ‘A8’ East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

• EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

• Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

• New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

• There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UKborn workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

• EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing
• European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).

• The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

CEP not sponsored by the EU by any chance

 

[Soulman]

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

• Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

• The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the ‘A8’ East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

• EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

• Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

• New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

• There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UKborn workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

• EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing
• European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).

• The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Jeez

 

[pastafarian]

Haven't HMRC just published figures showing recent EEA nationals pay five times more than they get?

No. They only compare receipts of income tax and National Insurance with payments of child benefit and tax credits. The same comparison shows the UK general population paying six times more than they get. While on the one hand the comparison does not include taxes like VAT and excise duties, on the other hand it doesn't include housing benefit or any other DWP payments, and most importantly does not include the cost of any public services whatsoever.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/448

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

All remain does is run down this country's lesser well off first by saying a migrant worker can do better and then by not offering the chance to help the lesser man/woman get on their feet in this country with training and education...

If i was prime minister Migrants could only work here if they were capable of earning over a set amount say £40000 per year,that way tax would be more and they would be here because they bring a skill set.

Meanwhile the lesser man/woman would be given help to progress,those that don't want to work would be made to do at least something..

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Jeez

most immigrants are living in council accommodation I would suggest or shacked up illeagally sharing rented accommodation?
Doctors over stretched and transport grid locked in rush hour ,nothing to do with immigration though

 

[pb21]

were you Goldsmiths campaign manager?! One of the reasons he lost

It's weird isn't it?! A few weeks ago Dave was suggesting that Kahn was a menace to society and a terrorist sympathiser and today he is getting his nose very brown with it half way up Kahn's backside.

With remain looking very likely to win I am looking forward to events post 23rd June with much interest...

 

[5ways]

Haven't HMRC just published figures showing recent EEA nationals pay five times more than they get?

No. They only compare receipts of income tax and National Insurance with payments of child benefit and tax credits. The same comparison shows the UK general population paying six times more than they get. While on the one hand the comparison does not include taxes like VAT and excise duties, on the other hand it doesn't include housing benefit or any other DWP payments, and most importantly does not include the cost of any public services whatsoever.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/448

The impact of EU immigration on public finances and public services
What is the fiscal impact of immigration on public finances and public services?

Public expenditure will be lower on one point since UK taxpayers have not had to finance the
childhood schooling and healthcare costs of an immigrant adult as they would do for a UKborn
adult. Second, we have documented above that EU immigrants are younger, more likely
to work and less likely to be on benefits. While immigrants, like UK nationals, would not be
eligible for contributory-related benefits until they have worked full-time for two years, they
could be eligible for means-tested benefits should they apply. HMRC estimates that around 6%
of tax credit claims are from households that include an EU national in line with the share of
EU nationals in the UK (House of Commons, 2014).


After trying to account for the many possible ways in which individuals pay taxes or draw
welfare, Dustmann and Frattini (2014) find that EU immigrants made a positive fiscal
contribution: they paid more in taxes than they received in welfare payments. For example, A8
immigrants paid in about £15 billion more than they took out in public spending in the decade
up to 2011. While this effect may seem small, the longer-run impact could be substantial. The
central estimate of the Office for Budget Responsibility (2013) is that the UK’s national debt
will be 40 percentage points higher in 2062 if net immigration is reduced to zero from 140,000
per year. By contrast, UK nationals, as a whole, received more in benefits than they paid in
taxes.


Given that EU immigrants are making net contributions, there is no reason to think that they
should crowd out any public services. In fact, they are bringing extra resources that could be
used to increase spending on local health and education for the UK-born. In other words,
reducing EU immigration would generate the need for greater austerity. This would magnify
the need for cutbacks caused by the slower growth of the economy due to reduced trade and
investment identified by Dhingra et al (2016a, 2016b).

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

 

[5ways]

most immigrants are living in council accommodation I would suggest or shacked up illeagally sharing rented accommodation?
Doctors over stretched and transport grid locked in rush hour ,nothing to do with immigration though

Housing:

There is a general perception that immigrants are given better treatment when applying for
social housing. Battiston et al (2013) show that controlling for demographic, economic and
regional circumstances, immigrant households are less likely to be in social housing than their
UK-born counterparts. Lack of access to social housing has more to do with the falling supply
of social housing.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Doctors:

For the NHS, Wadsworth (2013) finds no greater usage of doctors and hospitals by immigrants
relative to the UK-born; and Giuntella et al (2015) find little effect on NHS waiting times.
These studies do not distinguish between EU and non-EU immigrants, but since EU immigrants
are younger than non-EU immigrants, they are less likely to use health services, so the results
are likely to be stronger.

Also - lots of those doctors are from the EU. and 130k Europeans work in the NHS.

 

[portslade seagull]

Housing:

There is a general perception that immigrants are given better treatment when applying for
social housing. Battiston et al (2013) show that controlling for demographic, economic and
regional circumstances, immigrant households are less likely to be in social housing than their
UK-born counterparts. Lack of access to social housing has more to do with the falling supply
of social housing.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Doctors:

For the NHS, Wadsworth (2013) finds no greater usage of doctors and hospitals by immigrants
relative to the UK-born; and Giuntella et al (2015) find little effect on NHS waiting times.
These studies do not distinguish between EU and non-EU immigrants, but since EU immigrants
are younger than non-EU immigrants, they are less likely to use health services, so the results
are likely to be stronger.

Also - lots of those doctors are from the EU. and 130k Europeans work in the NHS.

And a lot of those workers live in subsidised nurses homes a they would not afford rental prices. Only know this as my brother in law works for the nhs as a manager earning obscene money £550 a day

 

[cunning fergus]

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 5 Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

• Between 1995 and 2015, the number of immigrants from other European Union (EU) countries living in the UK tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million. In 2015, EU net immigration to the UK was 172,000, only just below the figure of 191,000 for non-EU immigrants.

• The big increase in EU immigration occurred after the ‘A8’ East European countries joined in 2004. In 2015 29% of EU immigrants were Polish.

• EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born. About a third of EU immigrants live in London, compared with only 11% of the UK-born.

• Many people are concerned that immigration reduces the pay and job chances of the UKborn due to more competition for jobs. But immigrants consume goods and services and this increased demand helps to create more employment opportunities. Immigrants also might have skills that complement UK-born workers. So we need empirical evidence to settle the issue of whether the economic impact of immigration is negative or positive for the UK-born.

• New evidence in this Report shows that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

• There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less educated UKborn workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

• EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing
• European countries with access to the Single Market must allow free movement of EU citizens whether in the EU (like the UK) or outside it (like Norway and Switzerland).

• The refugee crisis has nothing to do with EU membership. Refugees admitted to Germany have no right to live in the UK. The UK is not in the Schengen passport-free travel agreement so there are border checks on migrants.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

http://m.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/1451...orkers_would_lose_UK_jobs_in_event_of_Brexit/

I seem to recall a while ago you linked to an HSBC analysis that identified riding labour costs as a THREAT relating to Brexit.

If only they knew.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Housing:

There is a general perception that immigrants are given better treatment when applying for
social housing. Battiston et al (2013) show that controlling for demographic, economic and

regional circumstances, immigrant households are less likely to be in social housing than their
UK-born counterparts. Lack of access to social housing has more to do with the falling supply
of social housing.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

Doctors:

For the NHS, Wadsworth (2013) finds no greater usage of doctors and hospitals by immigrants
relative to the UK-born; and Giuntella et al (2015) find little effect on NHS waiting times.
These studies do not distinguish between EU and non-EU immigrants, but since EU immigrants
are younger than non-EU immigrants, they are less likely to use health services, so the results
are likely to be stronger.

Also - lots of those doctors are from the EU. and 130k Europeans work in the NHS.

you sound deluded ,i wasn't talking about working in the NHS , and you can spin these links all day long, and you need to get out and about and see for yourself what's going on ,trust me I'm telling the truth
regards
DR

 

[Maldini]

Cameron must think the electorate are imbeciles
.

Sadly many are that's way his scaremongering isn't a total waste of time.

 

[Maldini]

Take away your assumptions and guesses we can look at some some actual evidence:


Immigration. The impact of the UK leaving the EU on immigration from
outside the EU is highly uncertain. But it seems more likely than not that
immigration from within the EU would be reduced. Recent analysis of the
Labour Force Survey by researchers at the London School of Economics
(Wadsworth et al., 2016) shows that ‘Immigrants from the EU are younger
and more educated than the UK-born – for example, almost twice as many
have received some form of higher education. They are also more likely to be
in work, especially those entering from Eastern Europe.’ On average,
immigrants are found, at least at the moment, to pay more in tax, to receive
less in out-of-work benefits (but more in in-work benefits) and to place lower
demands on public services than the native population (Dustmann and
Frattini, 2014; Portes, 2015).77 While this could change if they remain in the
UK through their retirement, the OBR has estimated that lower immigration
would weaken the UK’s long-run public finance position.78


http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf


It says that European migrants made a net contribution of £20bn to UK public finances between 2000 and 2011. Those from the 15 countries which made up the EU before 2004, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain, contributed 64% – £15bn more in taxes than they received in welfare – while east European migrants contributed 12%, equivalent to £5bn more.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/05/eu-migrants-uk-gains-20bn-ucl-study

I think others have more than covered a reply to your post so I won't bother myself other than ask do you believe those in the minority actually paying tax, is that extra tax are they just replacing tax that would have been paid by a British worker? I already know the answer but I'd like to see your spin on it.

 

[pastafarian]

After trying to account for the many possible ways in which individuals pay taxes or draw
welfare, Dustmann and Frattini (2014) find that EU immigrants made a positive fiscal
contribution: they paid more in taxes than they received in welfare payments[/B]. For example, A8
immigrants paid in about £15 billion more than they took out in public spending in the decade
up to 2011. While this effect may seem small, the longer-run impact could be substantial. The
central estimate of the Office for Budget Responsibility (2013) is that the UK’s national debt
will be 40 percentage points higher in 2062 if net immigration is reduced to zero from 140,000
per year. By contrast, UK nationals, as a whole, received more in benefits than they paid in
taxes.

Dustmann and Frattini (2014) is old hat

This paper from Migration Watch UK makes clear that Dustmann and Frattini have overstated revenues and understated expenditures for these recent migrants, and suggests something quite different when they are adjusted to take account of these

The headline conclusions of their press release have been very widely repeated and publicised, most commonly that for EEA migrants since 2000:

They contribute 34% more than they receive.
This amounted to over £20 billion from 2001-2011.
They are only half as likely to claim state benefits as the general population.

We have found, on examination that:

The claim that recent EEA migrants contributed 34% more in revenues than they received in state expenditures is simply wrong. It relies on assumptions that employees earn the same as the UK-born population when their own figures show they do not, that self-employed migrants contribute far more than those employed when they have no evidence of this whatsoever and – wholly unrealistically - that all of them own the same investments, property and other assets as the UK-born and long-term residents from the day they arrive in the UK.
In fact, on less unreasonable assumptions, there was no positive fiscal impact at all from the recent EEA migrant group singled out by Dustmann and Frattini for their “very positive contribution”. Indeed, migration to the UK continues to have a significant fiscal cost, and recent migrants made no difference to the upward trend.

The claim that recent EEA migrants are only half as likely to claim ’benefits or tax credits’ is highly misleading. Indeed it is meaningless in the context of establishing the fiscal cost since what matters is the amount people receive rather than the number of claims made – especially since different benefits pay widely different amounts to different people. Recent EEA migrants are much more likely to receive tax credits than the UK-born population, and more likely to receive housing benefit. Furthermore, these are likely to be paid at higher rates in view of their lower incomes. Typically they will be higher than the out-of-work benefits they are less likely to claim, and the native born more likely, to claim. For example in 2011, typical out-of-work benefits for a couple with two children were around £200 a week , but the same couple in low-paid work with two children could be receiving twice that much as they become entitled to working and child care components of tax credits. Job-seekers Allowance was £67.50 a week but the average housing benefit claim was between £73 and £145 per week.


Read the Full Briefing Paper (PDF)
13 March, 2014

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/329

 

[Maldini]

EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and the use of public services. They therefore help reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as crime, education, health, or social housing
]

And once more,EU immigrants REPLACE taxes that would have been paid by British workers.Not only that but they actually pay less as they drive wages down.They are also far more willing / forced to work for cash in hand therefore many pay no tax.Only an idiot would believe otherwise.

 

[brighton fella]

1. You ask a question.
2. I have a go at answering it, accepting the legitimacy of your opinion, but giving my own view as you asked.
3. You disagree with what I try to say and tell me to 'go get f-----'.

And so the Brexit case develops.

The reason that i told you to go get f*cked was that you deliberately failed to answer a simple question by giving me a foolish answer in return.

again and for the last time.....who foots the bill for this ..us? and where exactly do you suggest that we start building these hospitals etc etc etc ? and at what point do you say enough is enough ?

. . . .

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK 2014/15

The broad findings are that the overall fiscal effect in 2014/15 of the immigrant population in the UK was negative. This was so for post-2000 arrivals too using Dustmann and Frattini's categorisation of sub-population groups, with negative contributions by immigrants from the EU A10 group of countries and countries outside the EEA outweighing a positive contribution by immigrants from the EU15/other EEA countries. This is the same result as obtained by Dustmann and Frattini in the final year of the period they observed.

EEA immigrants cost £1.2bn and non-EEA immigrants cost £15.6bn, a net cost of £16.8bn. Looking at recent immigrants, i.e. those who came during 2001 and subsequently, the net fiscal cost was £6.2bn, comprised of recent A10 immigrants costing £2.8bn, other recently arrived European immigrants contributing £2.8bn and recent non-European immigrants costing £6.2bn.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/381

 

[Maldini]

I have come across countless foreign workers in low paid jobs(min wage/no tax)but very very few I would think are earning real money.Some 'professionals' cannot work in their profession in the UK as their qualifications from their own countries are not recognised here.Plenty of others cannot simply because their english isn't good enough.I've spoken to a fair few professionals working in low paid jobs in particular because of bad english.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

And once more,EU immigrants REPLACE taxes that would have been paid by British workers.Not only that but they actually pay less as they drive wages down.They are also far more willing / forced to work for cash in hand therefore many pay no tax.Only an idiot would believe otherwise.

Price pressure has forced many a british worker out of work....