[Albion] Apparently 8th place "still gets Europe", if...

[HP Seagull]

I think most of us prior to Saturday were banking on City beating Palace and us coming eighth. I hadn’t even considered the route to Europe that’s now the only one available to us. Hence, I was quite happy to see Buonanotte score!

 

[Audax]

BBC Sport are suggesting there's an alternative wrinkle that allows 8th to qualify:

Chelsea need to beat Real Betis in the 2025 final on Wednesday, 28 May, and then finish seventh in the Premier League - or sixth as long as Newcastle come seventh.

How does Chelsea 6th and Newcastle 7th work in terms of filtering down the Europe qualifications? Think it's still better to focus on Chelsea doing what's needed, given the results necessary for Newcastle to slip to 7th while Chelsea only manage 6th are even more convoluted.

That 3rd through 7th gaggle on the table is tighter than a [...].

City vs Bournemouth tonight - City win to put them in the box seat for 3rd on 68 points and probably only needing a draw on the final day to secure it. But a draw is technically enough as long as they also draw on final day (would put them on 67 vs Chelsea's 66 after final day results listed below).

Then final day the games that matter:

Fulham vs City - any positive result for City (as long as they got a positive results vs Bournemouth). 2x Draws puts City on 67.
Newcastle vs Everton - Permutation 1 - we want a Newcastle win or draw. Permutation 2: they need to lose heavily enough to slip behind Chelsea on goal difference to finish 7th (feels like a long shot given they're 2 up on GD currently). Draw puts Newcastle on 67.
Forest vs Chelsea - Forest win no matter what. Lifts Forest to 68 and Chelsea stay on 66
ManU vs Villa - Villa at least a draw to put them on 67.

And of course, Chelsea need to then beat Real Betis.

Lots of dominos need to fall just right. But the Prem results look plausible. Just watch everything fall into place and then Chelsea go and lose to Real Betis...

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

BBC Sport are suggesting there's an alternative wrinkle that allows 8th to qualify:



How does Chelsea 6th and Newcastle 7th work in terms of filtering down the Europe qualifications? Think it's still better to focus on Chelsea doing what's needed, given the results necessary for Newcastle to slip to 7th while Chelsea only manage 6th are even more convoluted.

That 3rd through 7th gaggle on the table is tighter than a [...].

City vs Bournemouth tonight - City win to put them in the box seat for 3rd on 68 points and probably only needing a draw on the final day to secure it. But a draw is technically enough as long as they also draw on final day (would put them on 67 vs Chelsea's 66 after final day results listed below).

Then final day the games that matter:

Fulham vs City - any positive result for City (as long as they got a positive results vs Bournemouth). 2x Draws puts City on 67.
Newcastle vs Everton - Permutation 1 - we want a Newcastle win or draw. Permutation 2: they need to lose heavily enough to slip behind Chelsea on goal difference to finish 7th (feels like a long shot given they're 2 up on GD currently). Draw puts Newcastle on 67.
Forest vs Chelsea - Forest win no matter what. Lifts Forest to 68 and Chelsea stay on 66
ManU vs Villa - Villa at least a draw to put them on 67.

And of course, Chelsea need to then beat Real Betis.

Thanks for posting, I don't think anyone knew that I don't know what people were discussing on the first 30 pages of this thread

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I reckon a wayward Cucurella back pass that Sanchez’s fumbles against Betis will be our downfall

Imagine having to actually want Chelsea to win a Cup Final.

The thought makes me ill.

 

[Audax]

Thanks for posting, I don't think anyone knew that I don't know what people were discussing on the first 30 pages of this thread

Was as much for settling what we need in my own mind ... so many moving parts, just working through putting it all together in a post helped massively. And then it felt wrong not to actually post it having put the effort in.

 

[jonny.rainbow]

Well said. All the ifs and buts should be ignored. We should look back to the start of the season, and where we hoped to be now!

Clearly Hingis could have been different, if we had held on to results, but to be honest it works both ways…

Bringing in Martina Hingis when defending a 2-0 lead against Wolves would have been a very left field call from Hurzeler.

 

[Right Back]

Imagine having to actually want Chelsea to win a Cup Final.

The thought makes me ill.

A Sanchez howler to give Forest the win would be good.

 

[Oh_aye]

A Sanchez howler to give Forest the win would be good.

From a mis-hit Cucurella back pass.

 

[Hotchilidog]

From a mis-hit Cucurella back pass.

In the last minute

 

[Mellotron]

It's going to be all lined up lovely for us, the stars aligning, then that utter bell Antony is going to ruin it for us in the Conf final.

 

[Official Old Man]

I've simplyfied it here
(IF Chelsea lose at Forest
AND
Man City pick up 1 point against Bournemouth H or Fulham A
AND
Villa pick up 1 point against Man Utd A
AND
Newcastle don't lose by more than 2 to Everton H)
AND
(Brighton win at Spurs
OR
(Brentford fail to win at Wolves
AND
Bournemouth fail to beat both Man City or Leicester))
AND
Chelsea win the UCoL

I'd be interested to know what odds there are for all those results coming in.

 

[Wozza]

Genuinely pretty chilled about this.

Nice if we get Euro Conf.

If we don't, we'll have a Prem season against many rivals stretched/distracted by Europe.

Also, given likely opposition, not sure Euro Conf is enough to keep star players looking to push on to bigger things.

 

[Gabbiano]

I've simplyfied it here
(IF Chelsea lose at Forest
AND
Man City pick up 1 point against Bournemouth H or Fulham A
AND
Villa pick up 1 point against Man Utd A
AND
Newcastle don't lose by more than 2 to Everton H)
AND
(Brighton win at Spurs
OR
(Brentford fail to win at Wolves
AND
Bournemouth fail to beat both Man City or Leicester))
AND
Chelsea win the UCoL

I'd be interested to know what odds there are for all those results coming in.

Individually, all quite feasible.

In combination the chances are miniscule.

It'll be a sour mood on here when Chelsea beat Forest at the weekend.

 

[Vicar!]

I've simplyfied it here
(IF Chelsea lose at Forest
AND
Man City pick up 1 point against Bournemouth H or Fulham A
AND
Villa pick up 1 point against Man Utd A
AND
Newcastle don't lose by more than 2 to Everton H)
AND
(Brighton win at Spurs
OR
(Brentford fail to win at Wolves
AND
Bournemouth fail to beat both Man City or Leicester))
AND
Chelsea win the UCoL

I'd be interested to know what odds there are for all those results coming in.

Rough scan at 50/1

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Imagine having to actually want Chelsea to win a Cup Final.

The thought makes me ill.

Needs must.

I am going on an advance entitlement course this afternoon, and refresher racism training this evening.

 

[dwayne]

Rough scan at 50/1

Rip off bookies.

This guy is better......18.2% as it stands

90% chance we finish 8th

 

[Audax]

I've simplyfied it here
(IF Chelsea lose at Forest
AND
Man City pick up 1 point against Bournemouth H or Fulham A
AND
Villa pick up 1 point against Man Utd A
AND
Newcastle don't lose by more than 2 to Everton H)
AND
(Brighton win at Spurs
OR
(Brentford fail to win at Wolves
AND
Bournemouth fail to beat both Man City or Leicester))
AND
Chelsea win the UCoL

I'd be interested to know what odds there are for all those results coming in.

Looking at each in isolation and "on paper" based on season form:

* City picking up at least 1 point from 2 games - more likely than not
* Villa picking up a point vs Man U - more likely than not
* Newcastle not losing - more likely than not
* Brighton win at Spurs - more likely than not (a draw is enough to beat Brentford though)
* Brentford not win at Wolves - Brentford win more likely
* Bournemouth results - More likely than not that they fail to bring home 6 points (City...)

* Forest win vs Chelsea - toss a coin?
* Chelsea win vs Betis - toss a coin?

It's the two Chelsea games that worry me most. The rest look, on paper, to favour us. As much as it's complex and any one result can derail things ... it's the Chelsea vs Forest match I'll be watching most closely.

 

[Bodian]

I've simplyfied it here
(IF Chelsea lose at Forest
AND
Man City pick up 1 point against Bournemouth H or Fulham A
AND
Villa pick up 1 point against Man Utd A
AND
Newcastle don't lose by more than 2 to Everton H)
AND
(Brighton win at Spurs
OR
(Brentford fail to win at Wolves
AND
Bournemouth fail to beat both Man City or Leicester))
AND
Chelsea win the UCoL

I'd be interested to know what odds there are for all those results coming in.

If Man City get a point tonight then 'Brighton win at Spurs' becomes 'Brighton win or draw at Spurs' and the Bournemouth bit drops out of the equation altogether? The rest are not only highly feasible, but I would say that Villa drawing, Newcastle drawing and Forest winning are all individually the most likely outcomes in those games. Which leaves it down to us at Spurs and Chelsea in the cup.

 

[kevo]

I am being lazy, but is there any chance the following scenario will happen? -

Chelsea finish sixth and Newcastle come seventh.

If Chelsea get a point against Forest, they will finish above them.

I think the only way is if they lose to Forest by a small margin (say, one goal) and then Newcastle get thrashed at home to Everton (by a four goal plus margin) and both Villa and City also pick up points. And then Chelsea bet Betis.

Think we can rule that out.

 

[Super Steve Earle]

Imagine having to actually want Chelsea to win a Cup Final.

The thought makes me ill.

Haven't wanted that since 1970.