[Albion] 12 Points Above The Drop Zone.

[Cowfold Seagull]

If we can't beat shitty Norwich at home, then I'm afraid we deserve to go down. That would be an atrocious result. Shameful.

It won't happen. We'll win 5 nil.

Neither will happen lol, l mean we won't go down, but neither will we beat Norwich 5-0, or if we do, who the heck is going to score the goals?

 

[Stat Brother]

That's not the point though, is it? We've gone from being one of the pundits favourites to dog shit in a matter off weeks. Our form has gone to hell on a handcart and we are currently one of the worst teams in the PL. Crucially we don't seem to be able to do very much, if anything, about it.

I can't leave it hanging any longer.

From the match day thread

It’s been shit for a fair few games but let’s not forget the amazing first half to the season.
Anyone who is crushed to see us in 13th is deluded.

Loving how that narrative has gone from:-

Anyone who is crushed to see us in 9th is deluded
Anyone who is crushed to see us in 10th is deluded.
Anyone who is crushed to see us in 11th is deluded
Anyone who is crushed to see us in 12th is deluded
and now we're at
Anyone who is crushed to see us in 13th is deluded.

 

[Simster]

It's been crushingly disappointing to lose four straight games, but we have been a bit unlucky to see Villa, Soton, Palace and Leicester ALL hit some form in that time. I would have reasonably expected to lose a couple of places in that time - yet we've lost four places.

Anyway that has contributed to the malaise surrounding our fans in my opinion. Top half was a realistic target, but it feels a long way off now.

 

[Se20]

I think you’ll be safe this season, but your losing run must be concerning.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Statistics wise we seem to boss almost every match, so what's gone wrong?

In terms of numbers (i.e. total shots, possession) we do but have a look at this:

https://www.northstandchat.com/show...-Brighton-v-Newcastle-Who-Scored-Stats-Thread

When you look into it further we are being forced wide and taking a quarter of our shots from outside the box. Newcastle couldn't really get out of their own half yesterday and yet had a better conversion ratio with all their shots inside our box.

In terms of the overall thread a couple of my fellow mods have interesting recurring theories. Bozza talks about us returning to the mean - i.e. we were overachieving positionally earlier this season and this is the bad patch. El Pres has talked about relative budget often being a good indicator of final position. I've read Swanny say that table position is really down to the quality of players.

There is little doubt that all that indicates that probably 17-13th is our natural position, albeit with the following questions. The main one, of course, is if the master plan to be a top ten side is really achievable without a top ten budget. Are we really going to create better players than we can buy via the Academy? Is it going to be any fun watching while we wait (I've missed two home games all season and been to four aways and have not seen us win since September)? And, since Potter has far better players than CH, was CH overachieving and have the sides around us increased their budget and player quality relatively more than ourselves?

 

[Cheshire Cat]

We are where we should be.

After the next three games we will be somewhere else where we should be.

Somewhat lower than where we are now.

 

[Perkino]

I'm pretty sure we get to this sort of points tally most seasons and then go on a dreadful run before turning a corner and falling across the finish line

 

[tigertim68]

Exactiy.

We can critically examine Maupay/Trossard/Welbeck forever.

But conceding 9 goals would give any EPL team a mountain to climb at the other end of the pitch.

I said after the Burnley game I was more concerned about our defence, as we were conceding too many goals

 

[banjo]

Neither will happen lol, l mean we won't go down, but neither will we beat Norwich 5-0, or if we do, who the heck is going to score the goals?

4 own goals will help.

 

[banjo]

I'm pretty sure we get to this sort of points tally most seasons and then go on a dreadful run before turning a corner and falling across the finish line

It wouldn’t be Brighton any other way.

 

[Javeaseagull]

We always struggle against teams that sit deep. Couldn’t believe how unadventurous Nukey were and their fans accepted it. They hardly got out of their half most of the game. They had us sussed alright.
It has happened so many times this season and is obviously a tactic to beat us, which is quite flattering really. At least we won’t have that problem against Liverpool and I quite fancy our chances. A winning goal from young Fergy and all will be well with the world. Well, my world anyway.

 

[Guinness Boy]

We always struggle against teams that sit deep. Couldn’t believe how unadventurous Nukey were and their fans accepted it. They hardly got out of their half most of the game. They had us sussed alright.
It has happened so many times this season and is obviously a tactic to beat us, which is quite flattering really. At least we won’t have that problem against Liverpool and I quite fancy our chances. A winning goal from young Fergy and all will be well with the world. Well, my world anyway.

That's Liverpool who've won their last 12 on the trot, conceding 4 goals?

 

[Javeaseagull]

That's Liverpool who've won their last 12 on the trot, conceding 4 goals?

They have to lose sometime! I don't think we will get 4 goals tho.

 

[durrington gull]

Bloom didn’t sack CH because of the style of football, it was because he wasn’t bringing U23s through. Potter is, and with a lot of success, BUT Potter is in real danger of losing the home crowd, the home form and results are truly woeful and that’s not knee jerk it’s over months and months.
It’s not all Potter’s fault, I blame the board to an extent because they’ve not fully backed him IMO, but he’s not helping himself at home with the slooooooowwww football.

Agree - the home form has crippled us - definitely our Achilles heel

 

[chaileyjem]

I think you’ll be safe this season, but your losing run must be concerning.

Ironically after your win yesterday - we now have the same number of points - i saw several Palace fans/social media pages saying in effect. At least relegation talk is now over for the season.

 

[Swansman]

In terms of numbers (i.e. total shots, possession) we do but have a look at this:

https://www.northstandchat.com/show...-Brighton-v-Newcastle-Who-Scored-Stats-Thread

When you look into it further we are being forced wide and taking a quarter of our shots from outside the box. Newcastle couldn't really get out of their own half yesterday and yet had a better conversion ratio with all their shots inside our box.

In terms of the overall thread a couple of my fellow mods have interesting recurring theories. Bozza talks about us returning to the mean - i.e. we were overachieving positionally earlier this season and this is the bad patch. El Pres has talked about relative budget often being a good indicator of final position. I've read Swanny say that table position is really down to the quality of players.

There is little doubt that all that indicates that probably 17-13th is our natural position, albeit with the following questions. The main one, of course, is if the master plan to be a top ten side is really achievable without a top ten budget. Are we really going to create better players than we can buy via the Academy? Is it going to be any fun watching while we wait (I've missed two home games all season and been to four aways and have not seen us win since September)? And, since Potter has far better players than CH, was CH overachieving and have the sides around us increased their budget and player quality relatively more than ourselves?

It is achievable to reach the top 10 occasionally without a top 12 budget but to do it continuously without a bit more spending... if the club turns into British Ajax then surely it is possible but that is easier said than done. This summer is going to be a good indicator of how much TB is willing and able to spend. For the scoreboard watchers it is difficult to tell if its going to be more fun or not.

Yes, CH overperformed with his squad, no doubt whatsoever. Looking at quite a few of CHs Brighton games when there was no football in the first Covid spring, it was also clear that it was a completely unsustainable type of football: difficult to recruit players if you're playing that way, difficult to sell players if you're playing that way, and very difficult in the long run to keep players 100% focused and motivated when they know most games (with no real end in sight) will be about watching the other team have the ball and try to defend yourself for most of the game.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

We’re a mid-table team, win some, lose some, draw some….this is what happens.

 

[Seagull58]

If we can't beat shitty Norwich at home, then I'm afraid we deserve to go down. That would be an atrocious result. Shameful.

It won't happen. We'll win 5 nil.

We absolutely won't win 5-0. We may scrape a win if they are bad enough at the back to allow our shot-shy forwards to score.

 

[Stat Brother]

That's Liverpool who've won their last 12 on the trot, conceding 4 goals?

Nevertheless you've got to be more confident about the Liverpool game over the Norwich one?

 

[Seagull58]

I think you’ll be safe this season, but your losing run must be concerning.

We will be safe (we are near enough safe already). Our performances are concerning.