Surely we can’t fail to beat the worst team in the league twice in one season, can we?
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[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 38 Update - 1 OVER
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Agree but more likely to beat Arsenal away than Leeds at home. Still think we will be around 38 points and safe
thejackal
Throbbing Member
Machiavelli
Well-known member
We'll be beyond that. I can see us getting 8 more, but more is possible.
[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] a thought for next season: instead of a line for Europe, how about a line for 10th, to reflect the bottom end of the club’s stated long-term goal?
Thanks for continuing to do this - it remains a go to thread for me.
Thanks for continuing to do this - it remains a go to thread for me.
And maybe just call it 'The Giraffe Tracker' - as that's how I think of it and try to search for it....
giveusfalmerplease
Well-known member
nice idea but how would it work? who decides if to get to 10th we have to beat say Leeds and Arsenal at home but Everton and Villa away are defeats? Had we done this for this years tracker we would have had Sheff Utd down as losers homa and away based on 2019/20 form. Also, what would the points target be for 10th? Checking here: https://www.myfootballfacts.com/premier-league/all-time-premier-league/premier-league-ladders/ shows 10th could be anything between 45 and 53 points over the last 10 years..
Maybe we should have a poll, we know how much NSC'ers like polls
McTavish
Well-known member
- Nov 5, 2014
- 1,563
Exactly the same way as the Staying Up and Europe trackers work. Pick a reasonable number and adjust home wins and away draws to hit the number.
The position those teams finish this year decides.
Errmmm...This has been done for this year and Sheff Utd are down as losses
+
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,830
And GUFP has helped us with the target! Mighty kind of them to do the research.
The mid-point of 49 feels reasonable. Now we just need a simple job of deciding how to update the game-by-game target. Maybe a simple draw at home to the other 9 teams? Or we pick the 5 bottom teams (including the three newbies) and just plan the double over them... taking us to 50 points and glory.
GT49er
Well-known member
Agree - except for the bit about having a poll.nice idea but how would it work? who decides if to get to 10th we have to beat say Leeds and Arsenal at home but Everton and Villa away are defeats? Had we done this for this years tracker we would have had Sheff Utd down as losers homa and away based on 2019/20 form. Also, what would the points target be for 10th? Checking here: https://www.myfootballfacts.com/premier-league/all-time-premier-league/premier-league-ladders/ shows 10th could be anything between 45 and 53 points over the last 10 years..
Maybe we should have a poll, we know how much NSC'ers like polls
nice idea but how would it work? who decides if to get to 10th we have to beat say Leeds and Arsenal at home but Everton and Villa away are defeats? Had we done this for this years tracker we would have had Sheff Utd down as losers homa and away based on 2019/20 form. Also, what would the points target be for 10th? Checking here: https://www.myfootballfacts.com/premier-league/all-time-premier-league/premier-league-ladders/ shows 10th could be anything between 45 and 53 points over the last 10 years..
Maybe we should have a poll, we know how much NSC'ers like polls
I wondered the same thing before I posted, but presumably the same is true for a Europe line, which [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] has managed somehow...
giveusfalmerplease
Well-known member
yeah but what is this magical points total that we would use to supposedly guarantee 10th place? 40 points target is easy - win our home games against the bottom 10 and draw the away games. Europe im guessing is something like win home and away against the bottom 10 (60 points) but that would only have been enough in 6 of the last 10 years
Anyway i think i can answer my own question
Maybe the formula needs to be like Win home and away against the bottom 4 (24 points) and win home/draw away against the next 7 -28 (giving target as 52) which would be good enough for 10th 7/10 times. if we made it - win home/draw away against the next 8 teams -32 points then that would give us a target of 56 which would guarantee 10th every year except 1993/94 and even as high as 7th. One outlier was 2012-13 when WBA were 8th with 49!! points. That was the year when the top 7 beat everyone and the rest beat eachother *8th was only 8 points ahead of 16th)
- Aug 8, 2005
- 26,625
- Thread starter
- #634
It’s a good idea. My only (slight) reluctance is we haven’t done that yet and we haven’t been relegated (yet). The superstitious me says this is a bad idea, but the logical side of me says yes bring it on.
How about we stay up first ?
It’s true that we’re not mathematically safe, but I do believe fir all practical purposes we will be in reality. Now I’ve gone and done it.
Your thread; your call... I’ll be tracking it whatever.
um bongo molongo
Well-known member
I am anti any change whatsoever to this thread. The introduction of the Europe line was enough dicing with the football gods.
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
Fine, but more important methinks is to rethink the 3 points for home game and 1 for away given that Albion are one of several teams with far better way record than home. This season has seen away games being won in roughly same number as home across EPL so why not just say 2 points for any game against team 9th or lower? Still ends with 40 points but is more even. Can rethink when crowds return and home advantage is more noticeable.
