Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

dsr-burnley · Feb 26, 2021

Bodian said:
But will it. I think we have to look at cases=hospitalisation later=deaths later differently now so many have been vaccinated. It would well be now that we see a rise in cases with no knock-on effect on hospitalisations and deaths.

We have moved on from hospitalisations and deaths. Lockdown started because to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed, and then the reason changed to preventing people from dying, but even if we get to the point where the hospitals are not overwhelmed and people are not dying, we will still need lockdown because if we don't the virus might mutate. The first rule is that lockdown is essential; the reasons for enforcing it are fluid.

Klaas · Feb 26, 2021

BeHereNow said:
I wouldn’t want to catch anything, but I’m not going to pretend it’s worse than other diseases/viruses. It hasn’t killed as many as the flu did a few years ago, so I’m not that worried.

Still waiting on some info on this claim thanks

crodonilson · Feb 26, 2021

Bodian said:
But will it. I think we have to look at cases=hospitalisation later=deaths later differently now so many have been vaccinated. It would well be now that we see a rise in cases with no knock-on effect on hospitalisations and deaths.

It may do at the beginning because as at March 8th nearly all under 60s will not have been vaccinated and many over 60s will not have full protection from the first dose yet. Remember in this wave there were a significant amount of under 60s in hospital, the hugew majority with care got better and only a few wil have died but that still puts massive pressure on the NHS and stops them being able to get back to any sort of normality, any increase in the number of hospitalisations, even if it is unlikley to ultimately lead to many more deaths, is bad news and probably means we need to pause the end of lockdown.

dazzer6666 · Feb 26, 2021

crodonilson said:
It may do at the beginning because as at March 8th nearly all under 60s will not have been vaccinated and many over 60s will not have full protection from the first dose yet. Remember in this wave there were a significant amount of under 60s in hospital, the hugew majority with care got better and only a few wil have died but that still puts massive pressure on the NHS and stops them being able to get back to any sort of normality, any increase in the number of hospitalisations, even if it is unlikley to ultimately lead to many more deaths, is bad news and probably means we need to pause the end of lockdown.

As of March 8th the O60s (and everyone else) should still be social distancing anyway, limiting transmission. It’s a calculated risk, with a time lag to understand the impacts/data.

The NHS is no longer (assuming things continue as now) in danger of being overwhelmed - that was officially confirmed yesterday when the alert category was downgraded. It’s still grim, but a significant step in the right direction

Weststander · Feb 26, 2021

BeHereNow said:
What the **** are you on about? I didn’t say I was against vaccines Another bogeyman made up in your head again.

There’s no evidence lockdown has saved any life. There was a table posted on here a while ago that said infections were going down BEFORE lockdown happened. If you really want an explanation I can just send you a very clear, thought out video, but you’d rather throw insults at people like a child. Embarrassing.

You’ll have to show me when Covid killed more than 28,000 in a month, or more than 1.5 million worldwide. I assume you wanted a lockdown then and when we had Hong Kong flu aswell.

Why do falls in the numbers of CV19 deaths across the world, occur just after lockdowns are implemented?

darkwolf666 · Feb 26, 2021

Weststander said:
Why do falls in the numbers of CV19 deaths across the world, occur just after lockdowns are implemented?

Coincidence, apparently...!

Blue3 · Feb 28, 2021

A coronavirus "variant of concern" first detected in Brazil has now been found in the UK.

Three cases have been detected in England and separately three in Scotland.

"The three Scottish residents had flown to Scotland from Brazil via Paris and London, the Scottish government said."

If it's found that the Scottish residents had flown to Paris then to London before flying to Scotland and deliberately did so to evade quarantine then I hope the courts take appropriate action

Kinky Gerbil · Feb 28, 2021

Blue3 said:
A coronavirus "variant of concern" first detected in Brazil has now been found in the UK.

Three cases have been detected in England and separately three in Scotland.

"The three Scottish residents had flown to Scotland from Brazil via Paris and London, the Scottish government said."

If it's found that the Scottish residents had flown to Paris then to London before flying to Scotland and deliberately did so to evade quarantine then I hope the courts take appropriate action

This looks like it was two weeks ago, seems odd they announce it today with the best bits of data for an age

Seems like a “it’s not done” knuckle rap

The vaccine still works on this one I believe

Poojah · Feb 28, 2021

On the economic front, I found this graph quite interesting and quite enlightening. The headline stat - our national debt is at it's highest since 1963, at which point it was still recovering from the hardship of WWII (interesting in itself, when it comes to appreciating how long it takes to recover from major crises). I can only assume that it was already so high through the 1920s and 30s due to WWI, but boy does it still spike in 1939.

Now, I'd kind of taken it for granted that the fact that our debts we are at our highest post-war levels was purely as a result of a pandemic. But that's not really true; they were already incredibly high ever since the 2008 financial crisis ("crisis", meh). The actual uptick in debt is actually quite small, relatively speaking, certainly compared to the last world war against which the pandemic has often been compared, rightly or wrongly.

I dunno, I just thought it was interesting and quite useful for putting the economic challenge into context. Clearly, we have a significant problem - chunks of the economy have been shut for almost a year, and will continue to be for some time yet. But it's not quite as significant as you might think - that's my takeaway, anyway.

cloud · Mar 1, 2021

What has risen massively is government borrowing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56084504

dazzer6666 · Mar 1, 2021

Poojah said:
On the economic front, I found this graph quite interesting and quite enlightening. The headline stat - our national debt is at it's highest since 1963, at which point it was still recovering from the hardship of WWII (interesting in itself, when it comes to appreciating how long it takes to recover from major crises). I can only assume that it was already so high through the 1920s and 30s due to WWI, but boy does it still spike in 1939.

Now, I'd kind of taken it for granted that the fact that our debts we are at our highest post-war levels was purely as a result of a pandemic. But that's not really true; they were already incredibly high ever since the 2008 financial crisis ("crisis", meh). The actual uptick in debt is actually quite small, relatively speaking, certainly compared to the last world war against which the pandemic has often been compared, rightly or wrongly.

I dunno, I just thought it was interesting and quite useful for putting the economic challenge into context. Clearly, we have a significant problem - chunks of the economy have been shut for almost a year, and will continue to be for some time yet. But it's not quite as significant as you might think - that's my takeaway, anyway.

View attachment 134341

cloud said:
What has risen massively is government borrowing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56084504

The cost of borrowing is incredibly low, so it’s (currently) not as big a concern as it otherwise might be. The debt can just keep being rolled over until the economy can support starting repayment rather than continuing increases in debt - if interest rates were higher the debt would be rapidly compounding..........

nicko31 · Mar 1, 2021

Interesting in France how unpopular Macron is and how relatively popular Johnson is in the UK.

Yet the French have got off pretty lightly over the winter compared to us. What's more they've had no full lockdown, schools are open, many shops open, you can visit peoples houses and no real internal travel restrictions. And despite their poor vaccination rate their death rate continues to fall.

beorhthelm · Mar 1, 2021

nicko31 said:
Interesting in France how unpopular Macron is and how relatively popular Johnson is in the UK.

Yet the French have got off pretty lightly over the winter compared to us. What's more they've had no full lockdown, schools are open, many shops open, you can visit peoples houses and no real internal travel restrictions. And despite their poor vaccination rate their death rate continues to fall.

you shouldnt put too much weight on a limited graph, France had their peak in November. their restrictions are not so different to ours, plus have curfew, apart from the schools. maybe we should have our schools opened all along?

loz · Mar 1, 2021

nicko31 said:
Interesting in France how unpopular Macron is and how relatively popular Johnson is in the UK.

Yet the French have got off pretty lightly over the winter compared to us. What's more they've had no full lockdown, schools are open, many shops open, you can visit peoples houses and no real internal travel restrictions. And despite their poor vaccination rate their death rate continues to fall.

View attachment 134356

Our French office although they could I would say 80% still wanted to work at work and in the office, in fact working from home is a bit of a no no.

nicko31 · Mar 1, 2021

beorhthelm said:
you shouldnt put too much weight on a limited graph, France had their peak in November. their restrictions are not so different to ours, plus have curfew, apart from the schools. maybe we should have our schools opened all along?

They have 6am - 6pm curfew but schools open (masks required over 6 years) and non essential shops are open, inside family visits permitted but bars and restaurants are closed, its not really a lockdown like ours.

Cases running steady at circa 20k a day for past few weeks but deaths thoroughout the winter seem to have been contained at reasonable level.

Unless the deaths are somehow measured different to ours they must be doing something right.

Kinky Gerbil · Mar 1, 2021

nicko31 said:
They have 6am - 6pm curfew but schools open (masks required over 6 years) and non essential shops are open, inside family visits permitted but bars and restaurants are closed, its not really a lockdown like ours.

Cases running steady at circa 20k a day for past few weeks but deaths thoroughout the winter seem to have been contained at reasonable level.

Unless the deaths are somehow measured different to ours they must be doing something right.

Be interesting to see the hospital/care home infection levels.

LamieRobertson · Mar 2, 2021

dazzer6666 said:
The cost of borrowing is incredibly low, so it’s (currently) not as big a concern as it otherwise might be. The debt can just keep being rolled over until the economy can support starting repayment rather than continuing increases in debt - if interest rates were higher the debt would be rapidly compounding..........

....and that’s the worry over any inflation I guess ...which used to be a cue for riding interest rates...although I’m not so sure these days....bond yields have been rising at the long end

Kinky Gerbil · Mar 2, 2021

Sturgeon has gone full zero covid.

She’s insane.

nicko31 · Mar 2, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
Sturgeon has gone full zero covid.

She’s insane.

Think its the Devi Sridhar influence, she's big on locking the borders and starving out the virus. Interesting they had no deaths reported Sunday. Can see there being checks on the border soon

You can see the game, get Scots number down very low before the May Elections, claim victory and hope for a landslide, then go full bore for Indyref2.

Can't stand NS, but Johnson has made her 2 ft taller. Hopefully she'll soon be gone...

Kinky Gerbil · Mar 2, 2021

nicko31 said:
Think its the Devi Sridhar influence, she's big on locking the borders and starving out the virus. Interesting they had no deaths reported Sunday. Can see there being checks on the border soon

You can see the game, get Scots number down very low before the May Elections, claim victory and hope for a landslide, then go full bore for Indyref2.

Can't stand NS, but Johnson has made her 2 ft taller. Hopefully she'll soon be gone...

O yes, Devi the celebrity expert, she’s on TV more than Harry and Meghan at the moment.

Think it will backfire - she can’t close the border, doesn’t have the power to do so apparently - the fines can’t enforced.

Just one of the many flaws she is talking about stopping international flights till 2022 - airlines have already said they won’t plan to use Scottish airports till 2023/24 - how does she pay for all this? London will just tell her to take a running jump.

She does seem to be losing support.

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