Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
[News] The World at War
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
aolstudios
Well-known member
Are you saying they can't be bombed until they're actually completed?Posted the same point up thread yesterday, along with this article - there is no mandate of self-defence for bombing nuclear facilities where bombs might be built and might be used at some undefined point in the future.
Is Israel’s Use of Force Against Iran Justified by Self-Defence?
This morning, Israel launched a major military operation against Iran targeting its nuclear programme, including facilities, individual scientists and military leadership. In this post, I will provide a quick, preliminary analysis of the legality of Israel’s use of force against Iran as a...www.ejiltalk.org
Various ingredients have been found at numerous locations
- Oct 20, 2022
- 8,981
- Thread starter
- #163
Not legally under Article 51. of the Charter - which is the mandate of self-defence (which is what Israel is claiming).
No one knows how far away Iran is from developing weaponised concentration of uranium, or whether they could produce it in enough quantities to be a threat, nor if they or when they might threaten Israel with them. To initiate a pro-active attack on another sovereign state in ‘self-defence’, that threat needs to be real and probably imminent.
It’s not legal to bomb a Country on a hunch they are about to have nuclear weapons. A hunch btw that Netanyahu has been saying for the past 30 years.
Don’t forget, Iran has a nuclear energy program which is entirely legitimate - those ‘ingredients‘ found which include enriched uranium are crucial to power Iran’s energy reactors. That enrichment is around 3-5%. Nuclear weapons need about 90%.
Anyway, I think we know that it’s regime change and the possibility of trading/buying up rich sources of minerals and in Netanyahu’s case, political necessity, which is motivating these hostilities from Israel rather than any real threat of Iran launching a nuclear attack on Israel.
And it’s a war we should stay out of
Israel's war on Iran: Why the UK must stay out
Starmer would be wise to avoid a reckless gamble on a conflict pursued by an increasingly desperate Netanyahu
www.middleeasteye.net
Last edited:
NorthstandRacoon
Well-known member
Israel are ****s that’s why. Quite enjoyed seeing Iran give them a taste if their own medicine re Gaza and bombing them.
NorthstandRacoon
Well-known member
They must really admire their murderers of the 1940s.Meanwhile, the subject that is taboo
Israeli forces kill 51 Palestinians waiting for flour at Gaza aid site, witnesses and rescuers say
Israeli forces kill 51 Palestinians waiting for flour at Gaza aid site, witnesses and rescuers say
It is potentially the deadliest of the almost daily shootings that have been taking place recently near aid distribution sites.www.bbc.co.uk
Fkn tw@ts
Soton Seagull
Well-known member
Amazing dead cat strategy from Israel when the heat was being turned up on them for their extended starvation of the Palestinians.
Because you have to state the bleedin obvious, I think hamas (autocorrect keeps trying to amusingly replace with Hampshire!) are scum. Had to be said as ridiculously Israel's government has expertly created the narrative that to citicise them means you are an antisemite.
Iran needs change, but we've seen western attempts at regime change go less than ideally in both Iraq and Afghanistan this century, so fear the outcome if America goes balls deep on this one.
Because you have to state the bleedin obvious, I think hamas (autocorrect keeps trying to amusingly replace with Hampshire!) are scum. Had to be said as ridiculously Israel's government has expertly created the narrative that to citicise them means you are an antisemite.
Iran needs change, but we've seen western attempts at regime change go less than ideally in both Iraq and Afghanistan this century, so fear the outcome if America goes balls deep on this one.
aolstudios
Well-known member
Not legally under Article 51. of the Charter - which is the mandate of self-defence (which is what Israel is claiming).
No one knows how far away Iran is from developing weaponised concentration of uranium, or whether they could produce it in enough quantities to be a threat, nor if they or when they might threaten Israel with them. To initiate a pro-active attack on another sovereign state in ‘self-defence’, that threat needs to be real and probably imminent.
It’s not legal to bomb a Country on a hunch they are about to have nuclear weapons. A hunch btw that Netanyahu has been saying for the past 30 years.
Don’t forget, Iran has a nuclear energy program which is entirely legitimate - those ‘ingredients‘ found which include enriched uranium are crucial to power Iran’s energy reactors. That enrichment is around 3-5%. Nuclear weapons need about 90%.
Anyway, I think we know that it’s regime change and the possibility of trading/buying up rich sources of minerals and in Netanyahu’s case, political necessity, which is motivating these hostilities from Israel rather than any real threat of Iran launching a nuclear attack on Israel.
And it’s a war we should stay out of
Israel's war on Iran: Why the UK must stay out
Starmer would be wise to avoid a reckless gamble on a conflict pursued by an increasingly desperate Netanyahu
The Fits
Well-known member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 11,029
What’s this chaps excuse for Israel bombing Gaza (still) I wonder?
- Oct 20, 2022
- 8,981
- Thread starter
- #169
Changing the focus slighlty …
Another flashpoint that could suddenly escalate into a regional conflict is China’s claim on Taiwan. Taiwan could be used as a bargaining pawn by China to get the US to lay off from getting directly involved in taking down the Iranian regime.
With the World focussed on wars in Ukraine and the ME , Taiwan I think is especially vulnerable in terms of military backing at the moment - especially if the US commit to a war in the ME - they have already been moving assets out of the South China Seas, including the USS Nimitz and her carrier group.
Hegseth warned recently an invasion of Taiwan could be imminent with China ramping up its military presence around Taiwan. The US maintains a policy of Strategic Ambiguity as to whether they would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion but with everything going on in the ME, China’s interests in Iran and Trump’s unpredictability, that’s looking increasingly questionable.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
www.independent.co.uk
Another flashpoint that could suddenly escalate into a regional conflict is China’s claim on Taiwan. Taiwan could be used as a bargaining pawn by China to get the US to lay off from getting directly involved in taking down the Iranian regime.
With the World focussed on wars in Ukraine and the ME , Taiwan I think is especially vulnerable in terms of military backing at the moment - especially if the US commit to a war in the ME - they have already been moving assets out of the South China Seas, including the USS Nimitz and her carrier group.
Hegseth warned recently an invasion of Taiwan could be imminent with China ramping up its military presence around Taiwan. The US maintains a policy of Strategic Ambiguity as to whether they would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion but with everything going on in the ME, China’s interests in Iran and Trump’s unpredictability, that’s looking increasingly questionable.
China is carrying out ‘dress rehearsals’ to take Taiwan. Here’s how the US should respond.
With China escalating its operational tempo in the Taiwan Strait, the United States must enhance its forward defense posture in the Indo-Pacific.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East as Israel-Iran conflict grows
The USS Nimitz and its carrier strike group are steaming west from the Pacific as part of an overall buildup of US military firepower
www.independent.co.uk
- Oct 17, 2008
- 17,581
As someone interested in history (not in any deep or academic level, you understand, just YouTube documentaries and Wikipedia articles - and the occasional book) my current person of interest is Nicolae Ceaușescu, former dictator of Romania, one of the last Communist heads of state.
Bloody interesting stuff; I saw some of the remaining bunkers and remainders of his rule when I visited Bucharest some years back, but wished I’d read more prior to going.
Here’s a quick video for anyone interested;
Shot in the head by firing squad along with his wife after a people’s uprising. And frankly not before time.
Bloody interesting stuff; I saw some of the remaining bunkers and remainders of his rule when I visited Bucharest some years back, but wished I’d read more prior to going.
Here’s a quick video for anyone interested;
Shot in the head by firing squad along with his wife after a people’s uprising. And frankly not before time.
Changing the focus slighlty …
Another flashpoint that could suddenly escalate into a regional conflict is China’s claim on Taiwan. Taiwan could be used as a bargaining pawn by China to get the US to lay off from getting directly involved in taking down the Iranian regime.
With the World focussed on wars in Ukraine and the ME , Taiwan I think is especially vulnerable in terms of military backing at the moment - especially if the US commit to a war in the ME - they have already been moving assets out of the South China Seas, including the USS Nimitz and her carrier group.
Hegseth warned recently an invasion of Taiwan could be imminent with China ramping up its military presence around Taiwan. The US maintains a policy of Strategic Ambiguity as to whether they would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion but with everything going on in the ME, China’s interests in Iran and Trump’s unpredictability, that’s looking increasingly questionable.
China is carrying out ‘dress rehearsals’ to take Taiwan. Here’s how the US should respond.
With China escalating its operational tempo in the Taiwan Strait, the United States must enhance its forward defense posture in the Indo-Pacific.
US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East as Israel-Iran conflict grows
The USS Nimitz and its carrier strike group are steaming west from the Pacific as part of an overall buildup of US military firepower
China is observing the two conflicts closely.
The message from Ukraine is that the USA/Trump is that an invading nation can keep seized territory. Only Trump matters here because the NATO countries have no interest or willingness to get involved militarily in the Pacific.
The message from the ME is a country can commit genocide on one hand and bomb the crap out of another country without what would be considered provocation under world treaties on the other, and the USA/Trimp says ‘ how can I help’?
So China, like Germany in 38/39, is thinking ‘this is the moment we can do this and no one is going to stop us’.
I suspect they may try something more minor as a final testing of the water but the final act will be Taiwan.
Then the global nuclear disaster nations have managed to avoid for 80 years will kick off and this will ultimately be down to Trump.
Lenny Rider
Well-known member
- Sep 15, 2010
- 6,537
Didn’t Richard Nixon once say WW3 started the day after VJ Day August 45, and all the various conflicts are just battles and skirmishes in the process?
Very worrying times, compounded for me by the arrival of Grandchildren, now 1 and 2, what kind of a world will they live in at 18 and 21?
Totally understand your concern. Maybe no consolation but I doubt there have been many times over the last 100 years when others have not shared the same concerns.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,550
atomic energy watchdog IAEA reckon Iran has a large amount enriched to 60%. since it doesn't need anything past 3% so either Iran isnt acting legitimately or IAEA is lying.Not legally under Article 51. of the Charter - which is the mandate of self-defence (which is what Israel is claiming).
No one knows how far away Iran is from developing weaponised concentration of uranium, or whether they could produce it in enough quantities to be a threat, nor if they or when they might threaten Israel with them. To initiate a pro-active attack on another sovereign state in ‘self-defence’, that threat needs to be real and probably imminent.
It’s not legal to bomb a Country on a hunch they are about to have nuclear weapons. A hunch btw that Netanyahu has been saying for the past 30 years.
Don’t forget, Iran has a nuclear energy program which is entirely legitimate - those ‘ingredients‘ found which include enriched uranium are crucial to power Iran’s energy reactors. That enrichment is around 3-5%. Nuclear weapons need about 90%.
Anyway, I think we know that it’s regime change and the possibility of trading/buying up rich sources of minerals and in Netanyahu’s case, political necessity, which is motivating these hostilities from Israel rather than any real threat of Iran launching a nuclear attack on Israel.
And it’s a war we should stay out of
Israel's war on Iran: Why the UK must stay out
Starmer would be wise to avoid a reckless gamble on a conflict pursued by an increasingly desperate Netanyahu
No more informed than you or @Zeberdi of course, but I have little doubt that the IAEA are correct and Iran was working to build its own nuclear weapons. What I’m far less sure about is that the only way of stopping this was by the military action we are now seeing.
My understanding is that Trump tore up the treaty to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment to which Iran appeared to be adhering to and there may still have been scope to use diplomacy to get this back on track.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 8,981
- Thread starter
- #176
That’s still not weapons grade albeit much closer.
However, this was going on years ago
Why is Iran producing 60 per cent-enriched uranium?
On 13 April, Iran announced its intention to enrich uranium to 60 per cent U-235. This was characterized by Iran as a response to a sabotage of its vast underground enrichment cascades at Natanz two days before.
Moreover, the IAEA is "not able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material required to be safeguarded". The "inability... to provide assurance that Iran's nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful," it adds, "gives rise to questions that are within the competence of the United Nations Security Council".
You can’t prove easily the absence of a negative and ”Questions’ are not enough justification to bomb the shit out of a capital of any Country and try and take down it’s infrastructure or engineer regime change because they might attack you..
If anything is going to prompt Iran to refuse to cooperate but instead go full ahead with a nuclear development programme then it’s what Israel is doing right now.
Sorry but this escalation of relations with Iran is all on Netanyahu (and Trump for tearing up the non-proliferation deal at Netanyahu’s behest in 2018).
Israel’s attack on Iran came the day after the 6th round of non-proliferation talks were announced. Trump initially said "We are fairly close to a pretty good agreement," he said. "I don't want [Israel] going in, because I think it would blow it."
Hours later, Israel’s fighter jets were in the air.
Netanyahu doesn’t want a non-proliferation treaty, or the West to build normalisation relationships with other Countries in the ME, he needs Iran to be the dragon that only he can slay in the eyes of his public.
Barham's tash
Well-known member
If anyone hasn't watched it yet I highly recommend Bitter Lake by Adam Curtis - should still be on iPlayer.
Incredibly salient documentary on the rise of Wahabism (specific branch of Islam) that has the most openly hostile anti western agenda. Fascinating watch.
nicko31
Well-known member
He'll be carefully looking at Truth Social likes before making his decision.Just had a txt from a well connected friend in the (UK) defence industry; “The word is that Trump will let USA go all out at Iran as from tonight”.
Hope he’s wrong
What was shit show, another failed state in the middle east coming soon. These idiots never learn
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,550
well if they've been enriching beyond level required for power plants they aren't adhereing to anything. seems the treaties have just been window dressing to make everyone feel comfortable, while Iran carried on.
i have zero doubt the actions of Israel are about regime change as a goal, i also have zero doubt Iran is working towards nuclear weapons.
My point on the treaty is that Iran (probably and I think according to the IAEA) WAS adhering until Trump, not Iran, walked away from it.
Your second para, 100%