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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,949
Mid Sussex
Yes, I've been hoping Turkey will make some positive actions in the Caucuses. Everything is getting too comfortable for Putin and he needs to have something new to worry about.
And don’t forget the Stan’s as there is some signs of them unfriending Putin …
 




Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
16,390
Cumbria
Blimey. O'Brien calls it correctly, I'm sure. So, Ukraine is betrayed behind its back by the US. We shouldn't be shocked, it's been coming.
Did Ukraine accept the deal as it was presented to them? (I'm catching up).

Surely, now they've seen the Russian version (the correct one) they can say f*CK off if they want.
Anyway, does Europe need any more evidence of where the US stands on this? Seems that Ukraine and Europe are 100% on their own. Be brave, leaders.
On the news this morning they said that Zelensky has 'blamed the Russian's for lying to the US' - which is a good tactic.
 


fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
2,289
in a house
Blimey. O'Brien calls it correctly, I'm sure. So, Ukraine is betrayed behind its back by the US. We shouldn't be shocked, it's been coming.
Did Ukraine accept the deal as it was presented to them? (I'm catching up).

Surely, now they've seen the Russian version (the correct one) they can say f*CK off if they want.
Anyway, does Europe need any more evidence of where the US stands on this? Seems that Ukraine and Europe are 100% on their own. Be brave, leaders.
On a Times Radio podcast there was a clip of an interview they had with the chap who was Trump's ambassador to EU during his first stint. His view was that Trump was siding with Putin to try and create a split between Moscow and China and he'll keep siding with Putin.

This ma well be the case but I just don't think Trump and his cronies are clever enough. Putin is a crafty c##t and is running rings round them, getting everything he wants and they are too stupid see it.
 








raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
9,495
Wiltshire
On a Times Radio podcast there was a clip of an interview they had with the chap who was Trump's ambassador to EU during his first stint. His view was that Trump was siding with Putin to try and create a split between Moscow and China and he'll keep siding with Putin.

This ma well be the case but I just don't think Trump and his cronies are clever enough. Putin is a crafty c##t and is running rings round them, getting everything he wants and they are too stupid see it.
Either they are too stupid or Trump is just sooooo focused on Chaina as his main enemy that he can't see beyond that - if that's so then he'll keep benefitting Putin whether he's being played or not.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
55,403
Goldstone
Phillips O’Brien reckons the Americans negotiated two different ceasefires and didn’t tell the Ukrainians that Russia would get benefits.


The US are free to help Russia with sanctions if they want to, they don't need an agreed ceasefire to do it. So the ceasefire that Russia and Ukraine have is the same. Russia has said it won't sign the ceasefire unless some sanctions are removed, so they haven't signed it yet. Hopefully Ukraine will reject that before it even starts.
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
55,403
Goldstone
Of the 3 superpowers China seems the less obnoxious & troubling, I know they’re not perfect especially for the Taiwanese

America currently has a president who is a criminal and has no interest in democracy or the rules of law, but that's not what America has been like for the last 200 years. China don't care about human rights or the sovereignty of other countries, or the indigenous people in the way of their empire, whom they keep in slave labour. Just because the US have a rogue president, let's not start pretending China is anything other than a threat to humans across the globe.


At least they’re offering to help unlike the US

China have a no limits agreement with Russia. They'll help Russia take over Ukraine if that's what you mean by help?
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
55,403
Goldstone
On a Times Radio podcast there was a clip of an interview they had with the chap who was Trump's ambassador to EU during his first stint. His view was that Trump was siding with Putin to try and create a split between Moscow and China and he'll keep siding with Putin.

This ma well be the case but I just don't think Trump and his cronies are clever enough. Putin is a crafty c##t and is running rings round them, getting everything he wants and they are too stupid see it.

Yeah that's not going to work. It's not about personalities and agreements, it's about forms of government. Russia and China are autocracies, and their enemy is democracy. Trump doing favours for Putin won't change that.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,588
Phillips O’Brien reckons the Americans negotiated two different ceasefires and didn’t tell the Ukrainians that Russia would get benefits.

I'm dumbfounded. You can't have an asymmetrical ceasefire, agreeing one ceasefire with one party, and then another, different agreement with the counterparty.

It is obviously not going to work. I can't work out if this is being duplicitous, unutterably incompetent, or both.
 




SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
902
China have a no limits agreement with Russia. They'll help Russia take over Ukraine if that's what you mean by help?

For what it’s worth (I know, not much) China denied those peacekeeper reports anyway.


I personally think they win either way by staying out of it and spending their time & money building massive coastal landing barges for no specific reason at all.
 


SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
902
I'm dumbfounded. You can't have an asymmetrical ceasefire, agreeing one ceasefire with one party, and then another, different agreement with the counterparty.

It is obviously not going to work. I can't work out if this is being duplicitous, unutterably incompetent, or both.
This “is the US govt malicious or stupid” debate has me dumbfounded. As though it’s mutually exclusive. Of course it’s both of those things.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
55,403
Goldstone
For what it’s worth (I know, not much) China denied those peacekeeper reports anyway.

(y)

I personally think they win either way by staying out of it and spending their time & money building massive coastal landing barges for no specific reason at all.

Given the advance of drones, I'm not sure landing barges are the way forward. Taiwan should have a million of them at the ready.
 






SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
902
Given the advance of drones, I'm not sure landing barges are the way forward. Taiwan should have a million of them at the ready.
They did look like a very unmissable target from the photos. I did wonder if they were fake but it was widely reported.

But, no different to Operation Sealion, it would rely on aerial dominance with or without drones.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
9,495
Wiltshire
Warburg’s piece is interesting, I just watched it. But, I’m not sure he’s joining the dots between an energy ceasefire and a maritime ceasefire. Together these limit Ukraine’s options in the way he suggests in his video. Which leaves Europe…

I’m wondering if at some point he can force Europe to choose by denouncing the US as a Russian ally and walking away from talks. It’s risky because the US will still lift the sanctions, but then so are all his choices to some extent.
Yes, all his choices are risky.
I don't think he can call out the US as a Russian ally (although I may have emotionally said that just a few posts ago).
It's dangerous because, unless Europe is 100%on board with saying it (even if they believe that) then Zelenskiy may lose a lot of European support.

Better I think that Ukraine, EU, UK keeps developing it's own plans and actions for support of Ukraine, in parallel with US conniving, and let it play out: maybe there'll be no ceasefire, or it'll be clear Russia has broken it, or American political 'leaders' will accuse Trump of being allied with Russia... that could be a better way.
John Bolton has pretty much said that on Times radio (that's how I heard it).
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
9,495
Wiltshire
The amazing thing is how everyone has to pretend that they believe the US is an honest broker when literally no-one actually does!
I think it's also partly the difficulty of breaking away from decades of trust in the US as an ally.
This is a tiny insight into how hard it would be to change the Russian people's mindset after many decades of propaganda.
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,958
Brighton
Russia and China have there 'no limits ' agreement.
I do wonder what this is worth though, tbh. It's not anything actually tangible as far as I can see, more posturing at the time IMO.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
55,403
Goldstone
They did look like a very unmissable target from the photos. I did wonder if they were fake but it was widely reported.

But, no different to Operation Sealion, it would rely on aerial dominance with or without drones.

For D day the allies had aerial superiority, but it would have been different if the Germans had drones. Aerial dominance wouldn't be able to stop thousands of drones.

I expect China's plan is to use propaganda and moles etc to take Taiwan some years down the line, rather than invade.
 


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