[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[GT49er]

Maybe Ukraine should go with this, because it does, genuinely, want peace. Maybe it hopes and believes that the pros of the ceasefire outweigh the cons.

But I think the decision of Ukraine to accept this ceasefire is about the axis of time. A 30 day ceasefire favours Ukraine, not Russia, because it pushes the actual ceasefire (if it happens) further out into the future. But Russia needs this ceasefire, now. It needs the money from trade. Beyond the usual Russian bravado, it is in real trouble, both militarily and economically. 900,000 casualties is unsustainable, and extremely dangerous for the stability of post-war Russia.

By accepting a ceasefire, Ukraine is staying onside. Russia is nailed on to be offside in every attack. Ukraine will of course have a plan for when Russia breaks the ceasefire.

Finally, we are only nine weeks away from June, the month that Mark the economist has predicted the economic collapse of Russia.

Do you seriously think Trump, with his tongue halfway up Putin's **** will,see it that way?

 

[Triggaaar]

Maybe Ukraine should go with this, because it does, genuinely, want peace.

But this ceasefire wouldn't help get peace, it would make peace in the medium term less likely.

But I think the decision of Ukraine to accept this ceasefire is about the axis of time. A 30 day ceasefire favours Ukraine, not Russia, because it pushes the actual ceasefire (if it happens) further out into the future.

I don't see how a 30 day ceasefire benefits Ukraine.

But Russia needs this ceasefire, now. It needs the money from trade. Beyond the usual Russian bravado, it is in real trouble, both militarily and economically. 900,000 casualties is unsustainable, and extremely dangerous for the stability of post-war Russia.

I agree, which is part of the reason why a conditional ceasefire is bad for Ukraine.

By accepting a ceasefire, Ukraine is staying onside.

There is no onside because we already know Ukraine are in the right, and when it comes to getting the blame from Putin and Trump the truth doesn't actually matter anyway. Do not give any reason for any sanctions on Russia to be removed (US will remove some anyway).

Finally, we are only nine weeks away from June, the month that Mark the economist has predicted the economic collapse of Russia.

Presumably he predicted that before Trump decided to side with Russia? America's help and the removal of sanctions changes things a lot.

 

[Triggaaar]

Zelensky has already said he will produce evidence of each Russian break of the ceasefire. I sincerely hope this will develop into a campaign to attrition to embarrass the previously unembarrassable Trump administration.

You've already shown the flaw in your hopes. Trump is unembarrassable. Nothing Zelenskyy does or proves will get any attention from Trumps followers, it would only anger Trump and turn him more against Zelenskyy.

I hope Zelenskyy doesn't agree to the ceasefire, but if he's forced to I hope he breaks it and blames Russia.

 

[Triggaaar]

So there are still some good men in America. Now is the time they need to shout louder!

He's been fired since that tweet

 

[Eric the meek]

Do you seriously think Trump, with his tongue halfway up Putin's **** will,see it that way?

No, I seriously think you've missed the point.

Whatever Trump does, or threatens to do, is just a sideshow. In my previous post, the head of the CIA spells out how Ukraine has been underrated for several years. In a previous post, a military expert describes Ukraine as the most combat ready nation on earth.

Russia has thrown the kitchen sink at this war. And it hasn't worked.

Sit back and enjoy events as the desperation takes hold.

 

[GT49er]

No, I seriously think you've missed the point.

Whatever Trump does, or threatens to do, is just a sideshow. In my previous post, the head of the CIA spells out how Ukraine has been underrated for several years. In a previous post, a military expert describes Ukraine as the most combat ready nation on earth.

Russia has thrown the kitchen sink at this war. And it hasn't worked.

Sit back and enjoy events as the desperation takes hold.

Wish I was convinced!

 

[Eric the meek]

Wish I was convinced!

You don't have to be convinced. Just enjoy the bavovnas.

And if there is a ceasefire, enjoy the fact that Russia wants a f***ing rest from the bavovnas.

 

[Triggaaar]

No, I seriously think you've missed the point.

Whatever Trump does, or threatens to do, is just a sideshow. In my previous post, the head of the CIA spells out how Ukraine has been underrated for several years. In a previous post, a military expert describes Ukraine as the most combat ready nation on earth.

Russia has thrown the kitchen sink at this war. And it hasn't worked.

Sit back and enjoy events as the desperation takes hold.

Whilst Ukraine has been able keep Russia at bay, the US have helped with intelligence and weapons, and the US have hindered Russia with sanctions. The US removing help from Ukraine and supporting Russia is a massive concern. That's not to say I think Ukraine will suddenly collapse, but the US are enabling Russia to fight on for longer, and the future is less certain that it would have been without Trump.

 

[Eric the meek]

Whilst Ukraine has been able keep Russia at bay, the US have helped with intelligence and weapons, and the US have hindered Russia with sanctions. The US removing help from Ukraine and supporting Russia is a massive concern. That's not to say I think Ukraine will suddenly collapse, but the US are enabling Russia to fight on for longer, and the future is less certain that it would have been without Trump.

But Ukraine has accepted the ceasefire. It is keeping Trump onside. At least for the moment anyway.

Have faith in Zelensky. He usually makes the right call.

 

[Triggaaar]

But Ukraine has accepted the ceasefire.

Damn, I can't keep up.

I just have to hope that the sanctions aren't lifted, so the ceasefire doesn't happen.

Regardless, let's hope Paul Warburg is right:

Here's Paul Warburg whose opinion we value on here.

@Rdodge30, you won't like it, as it is based on solid research and is therefore objective.

TLDR: US sanctions are irrelevant and probably won't be removed anyway.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Phillips O’Brien reckons the Americans negotiated two different ceasefires and didn’t tell the Ukrainians that Russia would get benefits.

Ukraine Was Just Knifed In The Back

And The Ukrainians Know It

open.substack.com

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Phillips O’Brien reckons the Americans negotiated two different ceasefires and didn’t tell the Ukrainians that Russia would get benefits.

Ukraine Was Just Knifed In The Back

And The Ukrainians Know It

open.substack.com

Beat me to it! Thought I smelled a rat when this started being reported yesterday.

 

[aardvark]

I'm not sure how I feel about this. At first glance, it may actually be a good thing.

China offers EU its participation in peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine

China held informal talks in Brussels about joining the "Coalition of the Willing," which is forming a peacekeeping contingent to be sent to Ukraine, Die Welt reports, announcing the material with reference to diplomatic sources in the Sunday supplement of Welt am Sonntag.

en.interfax.com.ua

Of the 3 superpowers China seems the less obnoxious & troubling, I know they’re not perfect especially for the Taiwanese, but it would certainly piss off Trump & Putin. At least they’re offering to help unlike the US

 

[raymondo]

Will be a major concern if the US lifts any/all of its sanctions (obviously, I know), because I believe Russia could do pretty much anything and the US is unlikely to backtrack... because that's clearly their preferred direction of travel.
It could stop Russia's economy going over the edge (, I haven't watched Warburg's piece on that yet).

Another concern is that the supply of shells from North Korea (about 50-60% of Russian usage) seems 'endless' plus the Shahed drones.

Not sure where I'm going with this
Zelenskiy is walking a tightrope , with enormous skill and patience I think, trying to see where a peace process might lead (because it's not at all clear to me), and to keep inside so that US support continues as long as possible.

If he has to I expect he'll bail out at some point.
But I expect a peace process to fall apart at some point - after all, it's Russia.

 

[raymondo]

That's a bit too far into the future, with too many scenarios, for me to speculate on!

Note that Jake Broe more or less dismisses the effect of the US lifting the sanctions.

1. They are now irrelevant because Europe controls the pinch points of Russian trade - the Baltic and the Black Sea.
2. The US won't lift their own sanctions because of point 1, rendering such a move impotent, and the pushback they will get.

Re 1. is Europe actually doing anything in these regions though, or just the one shadow ship detained?

 

[raymondo]

Of the 3 superpowers China seems the less obnoxious & troubling, I know they’re not perfect especially for the Taiwanese, but it would certainly piss off Trump & Putin. At least they’re offering to help unlike the US

I think all options need to be considered and I expect Brussels is considering it seriously.
It's certainly weird though - Russia and China have there 'no limits ' agreement.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

I think all options need to be considered and I expect Brussels is considering it seriously.
It's certainly weird though - Russia and China have there 'no limits ' agreement.

Games within games.

My take, and it’s nothing more than that, is that China wants a weak Russia so playing both sides of the game suits them. They will also want to keep the US on their toes, which such a move will do.
You can add Turkey into the equation as they hold the Bosphorus, something that makes Putin very nervous, added to that they loath the Russian’s and in particular Putin. I can see them making gains in the Caucuses which has always been a bone of contention with Russia.

 

[raymondo]

Phillips O’Brien reckons the Americans negotiated two different ceasefires and didn’t tell the Ukrainians that Russia would get benefits.

Ukraine Was Just Knifed In The Back

And The Ukrainians Know It

open.substack.com

Blimey. O'Brien calls it correctly, I'm sure. So, Ukraine is betrayed behind its back by the US. We shouldn't be shocked, it's been coming.
Did Ukraine accept the deal as it was presented to them? (I'm catching up).

Surely, now they've seen the Russian version (the correct one) they can say f*CK off if they want.
Anyway, does Europe need any more evidence of where the US stands on this? Seems that Ukraine and Europe are 100% on their own. Be brave, leaders.

 

[raymondo]

Games within games.

My take, and it’s nothing more than that, is that China wants a weak Russia so playing both sides of the game suits them. They will also want to keep the US on their toes, which such a move will do.
You can add Turkey into the equation as they hold the Bosphorus, something that makes Putin very nervous, added to that they loath the Russian’s and in particular Putin. I can see them making gains in the Caucuses which has always been a bone of contention with Russia.

Yes, I've been hoping Turkey will make some positive actions in the Caucuses. Everything is getting too comfortable for Putin and he needs to have something new to worry about.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Will be a major concern if the US lifts any/all of its sanctions (obviously, I know), because I believe Russia could do pretty much anything and the US is unlikely to backtrack... because that's clearly their preferred direction of travel.
It could stop Russia's economy going over the edge (, I haven't watched Warburg's piece on that yet).

Warburg’s piece is interesting, I just watched it. But, I’m not sure he’s joining the dots between an energy ceasefire and a maritime ceasefire. Together these limit Ukraine’s options in the way he suggests in his video. Which leaves Europe…

Not sure where I'm going with this
Zelenskiy is walking a tightrope , with enormous skill and patience I think, trying to see where a peace process might lead (because it's not at all clear to me), and to keep inside so that US support continues as long as possible.

If he has to I expect he'll bail out at some point.
But I expect a peace process to fall apart at some point - after all, it's Russia.

I’m wondering if at some point he can force Europe to choose by denouncing the US as a Russian ally and walking away from talks. It’s risky because the US will still lift the sanctions, but then so are all his choices to some extent.