[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Bodian]

Maybe Ukraine should go with this, because it does, genuinely, want peace. Maybe it hopes and believes that the pros of the ceasefire outweigh the cons.

But I think the decision of Ukraine to accept this ceasefire is about the axis of time. A 30 day ceasefire favours Ukraine, not Russia, because it pushes the actual ceasefire (if it happens) further out into the future. But Russia needs this ceasefire, now. It needs the money from trade. Beyond the usual Russian bravado, it is in real trouble, both militarily and economically. 900,000 casualties is unsustainable, and extremely dangerous for the stability of post-war Russia.

By accepting a ceasefire, Ukraine is staying onside. Russia is nailed on to be offside in every attack. Ukraine will of course have a plan for when Russia breaks the ceasefire.

Finally, we are only nine weeks away from June, the month that Mark the economist has predicted the economic collapse of Russia.

Yes - but once the sanctions are lifted - when Russia break the ceasefire, will the US put the sanctions back on again. Doubt it.

 

[raymondo]

Live now!!

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes - but once the sanctions are lifted - when Russia break the ceasefire, will the US put the sanctions back on again. Doubt it.

That's a bit too far into the future, with too many scenarios, for me to speculate on!

Note that Jake Broe more or less dismisses the effect of the US lifting the sanctions.

1. They are now irrelevant because Europe controls the pinch points of Russian trade - the Baltic and the Black Sea.
2. The US won't lift their own sanctions because of point 1, rendering such a move impotent, and the pushback they will get.

 

[Bodian]

That's a bit too far into the future, with too many scenarios, for me to speculate on!

Note that Jake Broe more or less dismisses the effect of the US lifting the sanctions.

1. They are now irrelevant because Europe controls the pinch points of Russian trade - the Baltic and the Black Sea.
2. The US won't lift their own sanctions because of point 1, rendering such a move impotent, and the pushback they will get.

But if Russia want the sanctions lifted as part of the 30day ceasefire, and the US won't lift their sanctions - then there won't be a ceasefire?

 

[Eric the meek]

But if Russia want the sanctions lifted as part of the 30day ceasefire, and the US won't lift their sanctions - then there won't be a ceasefire?

That would be my conclusion as well.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

But if Russia want the sanctions lifted as part of the 30day ceasefire, and the US won't lift their sanctions - then there won't be a ceasefire?

Can't see Trump saying no to Putin, can you?

 

[raymondo]

Whilst I really appreciate Jake and other YouTubers who support Ukraine, I think sometimes there's an unhelpful emphasis on the American's stupidity, gullability or incompetence, when really they are ruthless, traitorous and very dangerous. It was no accident that Wankoff was interviewed by well known Putin apologist, Tucker Carlson. This was the perfect platform for his pro Russian propaganda. This US administration is telling us who they are and we must listen.

Notice they are also (via Vance) stoking hatred of and from Europeans. Classic right wing tactics to create division but this time they want to cause conflict between us and the American people. I guess it would make future war easier to sell to the US public.

Yes, I agree - they are not that stupid and gullible, they are doing what they want, and/or what they are told.

 

[raymondo]

And I'd like to know wtf this means:
View attachment 199047

Probably the US will provide monetary grants to restart these functions, US military protection for Russian ships,and ensure their ships receive the best maintenance service at all ports including Odessa.

 

[raymondo]

I think Jake is aware of who they are, that this is deliberate, and he is highlighting it. Americans who voted for Trump also need to hear it (whilst I realise a lot of them are too far gone, there are some who will realise they were sold a lie).




I can't see the US going to war with Europe, it doesn't make sense, even for MAGA.

Economic war, yes,; a possible altercation or strong arming over Greenland; but full on war...no.

 

[raymondo]

This seems to be Putin’s standard MO - agree to something but subsequently attach extra conditions to that.

I have no hope that it’ll persuade the Americans they’re being conned, but it’s not exactly subtle for the rest of the world to see what’s going on.

Yes, but only a very small percentage of the rest of the world is actually watching, sadly.

 

[raymondo]

Maybe Ukraine should go with this, because it does, genuinely, want peace. Maybe it hopes and believes that the pros of the ceasefire outweigh the cons.

But I think the decision of Ukraine to accept this ceasefire is about the axis of time. A 30 day ceasefire favours Ukraine, not Russia, because it pushes the actual ceasefire (if it happens) further out into the future. But Russia needs this ceasefire, now. It needs the money from trade. Beyond the usual Russian bravado, it is in real trouble, both militarily and economically. 900,000 casualties is unsustainable, and extremely dangerous for the stability of post-war Russia.

By accepting a ceasefire, Ukraine is staying onside. Russia is nailed on to be offside in every attack. Ukraine will of course have a plan for when Russia breaks the ceasefire.

Finally, we are only nine weeks away from June, the month that Mark the economist has predicted the economic collapse of Russia.

Yes but...
- we know every time Russia breaks the ceasefire they'll lie, and the US will probably parrot that lie
- well Mark said the first subsidence cracks would be impossible to hide by June (or something)

But yes, it keeps Ukraine onside for now. But I hope that, if Russia bombs another hospital or school (please no)...then please just drop the bridge and any ships protecting it.

 

[Eric the meek]

You know, I really like Euromaidan Press. They don't muck around.

For me, the real meat is down near the bottom. Zelensky tells first Putin and then Trump to f*** off. Not in those words obviously.

But the key is that he speaks from a position of strength.

HUR: Russia outlines 15 potential military conflict scenarios targeting Northern Europe - Euromaidan Press

Russia has projected 15 possible military conflicts over the next two decades, prioritizing Ukraine’s defeat by 2026 to maintain its global ambitions, Ukrainian intelligence warns.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Bodian]

Can't see Trump saying no to Putin, can you?

No - and that's the issue.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes but...
- we know every time Russia breaks the ceasefire they'll lie, and the US will probably parrot that lie
- well Mark said the first subsidence cracks would be impossible to hide by June (or something)

But yes, it keeps Ukraine onside for now. But I hope that, if Russia bombs another hospital or school (please no)...then please just drop the bridge and any ships protecting it.

Zelensky has already said he will produce evidence of each Russian break of the ceasefire. I sincerely hope this will develop into a campaign to attrition to embarrass the previously unembarrassable Trump administration. I have huge confidence in Zelensky. He is streets ahead of Putin and Trump.

I've said it before - the bridge is of greater value to Ukraine all the time it is still up. Ukraine can only destroy it once. When it is finally downed, it will be hugely symbolic.

 

[timbha]

Zelensky has already said he will produce evidence of each Russian break of the ceasefire. I sincerely hope this will develop into a campaign to attrition to embarrass the previously unembarrassable Trump administration. I have huge confidence in Zelensky. He is streets ahead of Putin and Trump.

I've said it before - the bridge is of greater value to Ukraine all the time it is still up. Ukraine can only destroy it once. When it is finally downed, it will be hugely symbolic.

Mustn’t get ahead of ourselves but Ukraine has shown how ingenious and creative it can be with the development of long range drones, etc whereas Russia has bludgeoned its way forward using relic artillery whilst losing thousands of its soldiers. A pause/ ceasefire will enable Ukraine to regroup, re plan and develop new initiatives, whereas Russia will still be a mess. Wishful thinking.

 

[Eric the meek]

Mustn’t get ahead of ourselves but Ukraine has shown how ingenious and creative it can be with the development of long range drones, etc whereas Russia has bludgeoned its way forward using relic artillery whilst losing thousands of its soldiers. A pause/ ceasefire will enable Ukraine to regroup, re plan and develop new initiatives, whereas Russia will still be a mess. Wishful thinking.

I remember seeing a clip of a military expert (unfortunately I cant find it) who said that Ukraine is the leading combat-ready nation in the world right now.

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[Sirnormangall]

Well fancy that!

Swift is European I believe - so reconnecting Russia to it may not, hopefully, be a US decision

 

[GT49er]

So there are still some good men in America. Now is the time they need to shout louder!

 

[Sirnormangall]

OK, so here's what I think happens next:

1) limited cease fire implemented.
2) US traitors continue to big up Putin and rubbish Zelensky to American public.
3) Cease fire breaks down. This will be caused by Russia but blamed on Ukraine.
4) US will use this as a pretext to fully back Russia and withdraw support from Ukraine.
5) Trump is then free to work on plans to invade Greenland while doing everything possible to promote evil at home and abroad.

Let's hope the free world can hold out, stay united and ultimately, prevail.

PS: I think they want us (Europeans) and the Canadians to hate Americans so that they can retrospectively justify their actions. We must resist the temptation. It is only a minority of Americans driving this insanity.

And Russia will portray itself as the good guys for enabling the free flow of Ukrainian grain again