[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Guinness Boy]

Tories lost Dover to Labour.

Massively voted for Brexit. Now angry they’re still getting immigrants and have coaches lined up outside their front doors.

 

[Gabbiano]

What a great couple of days.

First we get our revenge on Man U with a last minute penalty.

Then the Tories get wiped out across Sussex. Mid Sussex and Arun look like being no overall control too.

For Horsham to go full Lib Dem control (and quite comfortably so too), that says quite something. Hope MP Jeremy Quin is sweating - with the proposed electoral boundary changes, votes will be ever more reliant on the Horsham town, Southwater and Billingshurst - all voted strongly Lib Dem.

 

[nicko31]

Massively voted for Brexit. Now angry they’re still getting immigrants and have coaches lined up outside their front doors.

New lovely lorry park too...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Tory losses now number more than 1000 seats.

 

[clapham_gull]

Conservatives a busted flush. The interesting thing for me is not so much the somewhat mediocre Labour recovery, but how the Tories are getting dismissed from all sides.

A very much kick them out local election result and a lot of tactical voting going on.

If you haven't much of a clue what Labour policies are, I'm damned if I know what the Lib Dems are, but they had a very very good night.

That's the real issue at CCHQ. They can spin all they like regarding how Labour didn't do as well as they wanted. But the penny must have dropped at how despised they are by the majority of the electorate.

The best they can hope for is a small Labour majority, recover in opposition and come back at some point.

Their nightmare scenario is a coalition between Labour and a significant Lib Dem vote which manages to get a change in the electoral system over the line.

 

[Machiavelli]

There will be several prominent Tory MPs looking at these results somewhat nervously today. Jonathan Gullis and Jacob Rees-Mogg most notably.

If there are two things I can't imagine, it's a nervous Gullis and a nervous JRM.
Would rather they just went away (which is likely with Gullis, less so with JRM).

And, tonight, they've wheeled out the worst of the lot: Chris Philp

 

[clapham_gull]

Out of interest, I wonder in six months times the Tories panic, kick out Sunak and get Sam Allardyce in as PM.

 

[Machiavelli]

This is literally the line the Tories were pedalling on Today this morning when it’s their own vote that’s been decimated. Labour continues to make gains. I think we can all see where your affections really lie, it comes over in all your political posts.

But I should probably remind you anyway that the Con Lib coalition got plenty of things done from 2010 and led to a succession of Tory only governments rather than Labour getting in. Things only really got bad when Cameron lost Brexit and May couldn’t implement it. Cue another election and a huge Tory majority which has been completely hamstrung by people who can’t follow their own rules or keep their dicks in their pants. Three Prime Ministers later and we’re all living hand to mouth.

The things all went wrong because (Cameron called; the public voted for; the mess of) Brexit narrative is widespread. It's also a load of old baloney. Things went wrong because the British electorate bought the austerity nonsense and, before that, the prior neoliberal iteration of it stretching all the way back through 'beyond left and right' Blair, 'family values' Major and all the way back to you know who. You go through all that, throw in Osborne's austerity as the context, you get Brexit.

 

[Machiavelli]

Conservatives a busted flush. The interesting thing for me is not so much the somewhat mediocre Labour recovery, but how the Tories are getting dismissed from all sides.

A very much kick them out local election result and a lot of tactical voting going on.

If you haven't much of a clue what Labour policies are, I'm damned if I know what the Lib Dems are, but they had a very very good night.

That's the real issue at CCHQ. They can spin all they like regarding how Labour didn't do as well as they wanted. But the penny must have dropped at how despised they are by the majority of the electorate.

The best they can hope for is a small Labour majority, recover in opposition and come back at some point.

Their nightmare scenario is a coalition between Labour and a significant Lib Dem vote which manages to get a change in the electoral system over the line.

While I agree with this, this is what happens two-thirds of the way through your fifth term and into the fourteenth year in office. Labour have never got that far.
That said, doubt any other government has left such a devastating trail of destruction in their wake.
Couldn't agree more about the electoral system, although that's only a small piece in a rather large jigsaw.

 

[clapham_gull]

While I agree with this, this is what happens two-thirds of the way through your fifth term and into the fourteenth year in office. Labour have never got that far.
That said, doubt any other government has left such a devastating trail of destruction in their wake.
Couldn't agree more about the electoral system, although that's only a small piece in a rather large jigsaw.

Utter firestorm within the context of an historic weak opposition. I blame the Corbyn leadership as much as the idiocy of the UK electorate choosing a clown like Johnson.

Putting ideology to one side, we lost all sense of professionalism in public office the minute Cameron lit the match.

Both parties chasing a little Englander vote. The Tories doubling down on it, Labour having to diffuse their message of required reform.

After today's result it clear the Tories are finished. What's not so clear is what replaces them. The message today is anything but.

Hard to predict next election, but I suspect it will be two fingers up to politicians with Labour given the benefit of the doubt. It will be the Tories economic record that kills them.

 

[Acker79]

After today's result it clear the Tories are finished. What's not so clear is what replaces them. The message today is anything but.

Hard to predict next election, but I suspect it will be two fingers up to politicians with Labour given the benefit of the doubt. It will be the Tories economic record that kills them.

You seem to have more faith in the electorate than I do. I'm currently expecting that next year too many voters will think 'I voted labour/lib dem last year, and they ain't done nuthin for me, I'm gonna vote Tory in the GE'.

 

[clapham_gull]

You seem to have more faith in the electorate than I do. I'm currently expecting that next year too many voters will think 'I voted labour/lib dem last year, and they ain't done nuthin for me, I'm gonna vote Tory in the GE'.

I live in a very cake and eat it location. Traditionally votes in a Labour MP and a Tory Council. I live in Wandsworth, left Clapham years ago.

No surprise, hyper low Council Tax under the Tories flagship well performing local administration with a yoghurt knitting but worried about their house value population.

Last years local election told me that residents were quite happy for their council tax to go up in the future to kick the Tories out.

And of course, we can well afford it. But millions others will be thinking of a reason. I may be wrong, but my hunch is they are screwed.

 

[clapham_gull]

Problem for Starmer is that I think that your bog standard Lib Dem voter is actually quite Conservative and views the party as a "safe space" from Tory extremism.

He has to do more to win those type of voter. On balance I think he's done quite well to shake off the Corbyn era.

I definitely think there is a potential Back To The Future reboot where Starmer travels back to the 1970s and meets a young Corbyn.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The things all went wrong because (Cameron called; the public voted for; the mess of) Brexit narrative is widespread. It's also a load of old baloney. Things went wrong because the British electorate bought the austerity nonsense and, before that, the prior neoliberal iteration of it stretching all the way back through 'beyond left and right' Blair, 'family values' Major and all the way back to you know who. You go through all that, throw in Osborne's austerity as the context, you get Brexit.

That’s a “things went wrong” from a values and philosophy point of view.

@jcdenton08 was saying that strong majority government gets things done and coalition doesn’t. I was pointing out that the Con Lib coalition did get things done while the country has been in complete chaos under the huge majority won by Boris.

Personally I think a progressive coalition of Labour, Lib Dem, Green and SNP would be great next time out. It’s how the majority vote. The vast majority of the country couldn’t give a shiny shit about Brexit or the culture wars. They vote for parties other than the Tories but spread that vote across three or four of them.

 

[DataPoint]

It's incredibly exciting isn't it! - in less than 18 months, Kier will be in Downing Street and England will be ruled from Scotland. Least, that's what I'll be voting for - wont you?

 

[chickens]

Hugely distressing.

I honestly don’t see it that way. I would argue that single party governments often get drunk on their own power, and coalitions check the largest party from unleashing unpopular policies/vanity projects on the public without too much scrutiny.

The whole art of politics is meant to be compromise, it’s only in the U.K. and US that it’s entirely childish and adversarial. Our electoral system encourages these bizarre excesses, it leads to attention seeking children being given positions of power.

What coalitions do is force parties to find common ground. It’s possible for that to lead to better policy than a single party unchecked. Neither Labour or Liberal parties want to fail, through self-interest if nothing else. If it happens, they’ll find a way.

 

[Hugo Rune]

It's incredibly exciting isn't it! - in less than 18 months, Kier will be in Downing Street and England will be ruled from Scotland. Least, that's what I'll be voting for - wont you?

Ah - the Cameron line from more than 10 years ago. About as tired and irrelevant as this current government.

Meanwhile…..in 2023 & 2024, the SNP are an absolute shitshow and face being wiped out in Scotland by Labour in a similar way to the Tories south of the border.

You’ll be very surprised to know how many Scots have now finally worked out that a vote for the SNP will more than likely will get you a Tory UK government and disaster policies like Brexit.

 

[jimhigham]

Lewis Goodall pointed out that Labour would need a swing similar to that which Blair gained in 1997 simply to reach an overall majority of 1. This makes talk of a Labour majority seem pretty fanciful. However, a Labour government is looking far more likely, as the Tories simply haven’t got anybody left to form a coalition with. Pretty much everybody is now lined up against them.

LidDem to be a coalition partner following big gains in the south? A referendum on an end to FPTP as a precondition of entering into any agreement? I’d take that. Would love to see off FPTP so I can vote Green usefully and not just as a Woking based hissy fit.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Problem for Starmer is that I think that your bog standard Lib Dem voter is actually quite Conservative and views the party as a "safe space" from Tory extremism.

He has to do more to win those type of voter. On balance I think he's done quite well to shake off the Corbyn era.

I definitely think there is a potential Back To The Future reboot where Starmer travels back to the 1970s and meets a young Corbyn.

In my experience where I am, Liberal Democrats can be and are every bit as radical as anyone else. I couldn’t ever see my constituency - Winchester - going Labour, but it has in the past been strongly Liberal. And a lot of moderate but traditional Tories locally will be enormously uncomfortable with much of what the current government is doing, particularly around immigration and public services.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Lewis Goodall pointed out that Labour would need a swing similar to that which Blair gained in 1997 simply to reach an overall majority of 1. This makes talk of a Labour majority seem pretty fanciful. However, a Labour government is looking far more likely, as the Tories simply haven’t got anybody left to form a coalition with. Pretty much everybody is now lined up against them.

LidDem to be a coalition partner following big gains in the south? A referendum on an end to FPTP as a precondition of entering into any agreement? I’d take that. Would love to see off FPTP so I can vote Green usefully and not just as a Woking based hissy fit.

It seems more obvious than ever from these elections that there are places where Lib Dem’s are the major opponent of the Tories - Bracknell for example - and others where it’s Labour. would that be enough to make Labour the biggest party, and capable of forming a government with bigger LibDem presence as well.

but on the end of FPTP, I would welcome it. I could count on the fingers of one foot (geddit?) how many times over the last 40 years (and more) how many times I have not voted tactically.