Trump/Farrage/NATO

[sir albion]

Many People have realised the downfall is the liberal lefties in our societies and these two feel me with joy as we need people with backbones to progress as both our countries have similar issues that need addressing.

 

[pb21]

Nobody knows for certain, but it's much more likely following Trump and Brexit.

It is very likely the fallout of Brexit and Trump will have a marked influence on the 2018 elections in France and Germany. I read over the weekend that Sarkozy (mainstream politician) is currently employing a narrative in his campaign that the true French were the Gauls, and therefore new comers to France need to understand where they stand in the social heirachy.

This is not Le Pen, but Sarkozy..........if Farage was to use the same invective in the U.K. the media and political classes would be in meltdown.

It's very clear what constituency Sarkozy is appealing too.

Quite, but you do wonder if the establishment ex centre right president talking about Gauls and newcomers is appealing to people on the basis of Sarkozy's anti neoliberal rhetoric or something else.

Anyway it will be interesting to see if people continue to vote for substantive change and an end to the neoliberal ideology in the next GE here and vote for a Labour government led by Corbyn. That would really shake the establishment.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it."

Indeed,the Yanks had a deep distrust of the Russians at the end of WW2 and nothing appears to have changed today.....

Soviet Union had a policy that said they would not launch a pre-emptive Nuclear strike on the West during the cold war....Russia currently has decided to not have that policy..

Edit: This is my understanding,if proved wrong i stand corrected,i also understand that First strike capability applies if a "Large" scale conventional attack is directed at the Russian's too.

 

[JCL666]

This is all very well, but my own reading is that the f**k you came from the politicians to the electorate first. When Gordon Brown labelled life long labour supporter Gillian Duffy a bigot for having the temerity to raise the challenge of immigration this merely franked in the electorate's mind how they were perceived by the political class.

Similarly the EU has long been a bone of contention for the British public and yet despite the overwhelming victory by UKIP in the last Euro elections the political class said f**k you.

I agree it's a lot more complex than this however I have no doubt in my mind that the mainstream political classes are merely reaping what they have sown.

I don't think it's over yet.........Renzi is already polling behind in Italy, if he loses his referendum in December the EU will be in full f**k off crisis mode.

Politicians have been f**king over various parts of the electorate for decades, Labour neglecting their traditional support int he 90s was a significant turning point, as was the expenses scandal, but I don't think that they are totally "reaping what they have sown". It's been mentioned before, but from 9/11 through to the financial meltdown have contributed to a perfect storm, the outcome of which has had a negative impact on the majority of people. This is a huge contributor to the mood and context IMO.

Anyway I'm trying to summarise complex world events as well as UK political history in a paragraph, which definitely won't work.

No it's not over, I just hope that we don't all **** it up.

 

[Half Time Pies]

I am either part of the Russian web brigade or I am seeing something that you don't. It's not about being friends it's about not being enemies.

When David Cameron uses the threat of WWIII with Russia if we leave the EU, in his Brexit camaign, you have to be really thick if you don't see the scaremongering bullshit.

If you think Sunni Wahhabism is nonsense you need your head examined.

I think the opposite is true, you are seeing something that isn't there! You believe the if the US pulls back under Trump on its active foreign policy then the conditions will exist to allow us, Russia and the rest of Europe to cooperate with each other.

I know where you are coming from as I have been there myself, because of some of the things the US has done in the past as the predominant power in the world you begin to believe that the US is the root of all evil. It then becomes a small jump to radical left wing anti-Americanism.

Yes, many of the US actions throughout the world have been appalling however in terms of values, political freedoms and personal liberties we are a country mile closer to them than we are to Russia.

The bottom line is the biggest threat to Putins regime is western liberal democracy and in the same we have tried to create a buffer between us and Russia by expanding NATO and the EU, Putin will continue to try to exert influence over Eastern European countries and seek to destabilise them like he has done in Ukraine. The problem for Putin is If the likes of Ukraine prosper as stable liberal democracies tied closely to Europe and the US then this potentially undermines his rationale for protecting the status quo of the current Russian political system and the continuation of the current regime.

Whether you believe that Russia's motivations are defensive or aggressive is neither here or there, the fact is expanding Russian influence in Eastern Europe will be seen as a threat to western security and will likely prompt some form of response.

The other alternative for the west of course would be appeasement, however the last time that was tried in Europe it didn't work out so well!

 

[Triggaaar]

I could have used the corrupt nature of Blair taking us to war by deceit

It's not Blair's corrupt nature that made the west successful, the west was successful long before Blair.

Your point was "The west has built itself on corruption". I disagree. While there is corruption everywhere, that's not what the west built itself on.

 

[Baldseagull]

It's not Blair's corrupt nature that made the west successful, the west was successful long before Blair.

Your point was "The west has built itself on corruption". I disagree. While there is corruption everywhere, that's not what the west built itself on.

I agree, more built on pillaging.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The parallels with the 1930's aren't hard to miss are they. Global financial crisis leads to rise in nationalist movements, American isolation, weakening of international pacts which leads to the loser in the most recent (cold) war reasserting its strength and slowly challenging the world by annexing territory that it lost a couple of decades previously.

So when/if they do take over a NATO country on their border, thats when its really time to worry.

Sent from my GT-I8262 using Tapatalk

 

[cunning fergus]

Politicians have been f**king over various parts of the electorate for decades, Labour neglecting their traditional support int he 90s was a significant turning point, as was the expenses scandal, but I don't think that they are totally "reaping what they have sown". It's been mentioned before, but from 9/11 through to the financial meltdown have contributed to a perfect storm, the outcome of which has had a negative impact on the majority of people. This is a huge contributor to the mood and context IMO.

Anyway I'm trying to summarise complex world events as well as UK political history in a paragraph, which definitely won't work.

No it's not over, I just hope that we don't all **** it up.

Whist I agree with you about how Politicians behave generally, what Labour has done in the last few years it was in power has created the existential crisis it is now in. It's f**k you attitude to its core support is entirely new, and gets to the heart of why vast swathes of its support have deserted it to support Brexit and/or the SNP in Scotland.

Similarly Trump support was at its strongest in parts of the US with high unionised support, unions which had instructed its members to support Clinton.

These are indicators of a shift in conventional political logic, which is undoubtedly a reaction to the neo liberal dogma which western politicians, the establishment shills and the media have followed blindly in last 20 years.

All eyes should now be on Italy, a no vote would see Renzi resign and its fallout could deliver a fatal blow to how the EU..........

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/16/euro...le-with-italy-expected-to-reject-reforms.html

Here's hoping!

 

[cunning fergus]

Quite, but you do wonder if the establishment ex centre right president talking about Gauls and newcomers is appealing to people on the basis of Sarkozy's anti neoliberal rhetoric or something else.

Anyway it will be interesting to see if people continue to vote for substantive change and an end to the neoliberal ideology in the next GE here and vote for a Labour government led by Corbyn. That would really shake the establishment.

Surely the very fact that Corbyn is leader of Labour is indicative of the end of neo liberalism from its UK birthplace?

Evidently Labour still has its neo liberal cheerleaders but they are muted by Corbyn............given the very nasty civil war that is raging in Labour all the while he is in charge it should be dead.

 

[cunning fergus]

The parallels with the 1930's aren't hard to miss are they. Global financial crisis leads to rise in nationalist movements, American isolation, weakening of international pacts which leads to the loser in the most recent (cold) war reasserting its strength and slowly challenging the world by annexing territory that it lost a couple of decades previously.

So when/if they do take over a NATO country on their border, thats when its really time to worry.

Sent from my GT-I8262 using Tapatalk

A more fitting historical precedent would surely be the revolutions of 1848, where various ruling monarchies were swept away by uprisings by the people in France and states in what is now Germany, Italy and Eastern Europe.

Ultimately the "people's spring" of 1848 was unsuccessful, this time around let's hope the outcome is different and power is restored to the people.

 

[Half Time Pies]

A more fitting historical precedent would surely be the revolutions of 1848, where various ruling monarchies were swept away by uprisings by the people in France and states in what is now Germany, Italy and Eastern Europe.

Ultimately the "people's spring" of 1848 was unsuccessful, this time around let's hope the outcome is different and power is restored to the people.

What you are seeing here isn't a revolution! The people are going to the polls and achieving changes within the current system not to the system as a whole. In terms of where the power lies the status quo is maintained.

 

[JCL666]

What you are seeing here isn't a revolution! The people are going to the polls and achieving changes within the current system not to the system as a whole. In terms of where the power lies the status quo is maintained.

Totally this.

Anyone thinking that Trump is changing how things are should look at the team he has around him. Cronyism is as rife as it was before. The elite remain, just from a different family.

 

[Machiavelli]

Politicians have been f**king over various parts of the electorate for decades, Labour neglecting their traditional support int he 90s was a significant turning point, as was the expenses scandal, but I don't think that they are totally "reaping what they have sown". It's been mentioned before, but from 9/11 through to the financial meltdown have contributed to a perfect storm, the outcome of which has had a negative impact on the majority of people. This is a huge contributor to the mood and context IMO.

Anyway I'm trying to summarise complex world events as well as UK political history in a paragraph, which definitely won't work.

No it's not over, I just hope that we don't all **** it up.

I agree with much of what you're saying here, but the thing missing is about the rise of other powers -- China especially, India and probably others too -- and the decline of the West. Trump's election was a recognition within the US that it has peaked and, while still the dominant power, is on the slide, but it will also in all probability accelerate that process and the global realignment.
One book worth reading at the moment (which I haven't done, yet, at least) is Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. I can see the links with the 1930s, but it's difficult to overplay those, despite the fact that another thing going on then was a global realignment -- decline of Europe, rise of US and the Soviet Union.

 

[Machiavelli]

What you are seeing here isn't a revolution! The people are going to the polls and achieving changes within the current system not to the system as a whole. In terms of where the power lies the status quo is maintained.

I'm also with you on this. I'm with @cunningfergus on much but, ultimately, I think he's seriously misreading what's going on in the world.

 

[Machiavelli]

That is the subjective world view that has been sold to you. The west has built itself on corruption so we don't monopolise a moral high ground on the subject.

Indirectly the west has financed Sunni Wahhabism growth in this form of Islam. Mecca is built on oil not Allah and it exports a dangerous culture in the form of religion.

I don't like your first sentence. It implies that you have an objective understanding, mine is merely subjective and is one that I've uncritically accepted from the powers-that-be. What's really happening is both of us are making accounts of the processes that go on in the world.
I'm not taking a moral high ground, and merely stating that Putin's behaviour and increasingly dictatorial grip on Russia is problematic, as is his expansionism. Go and talk to those in East Aleppo at the moment, and I think you might find that this view is widely accepted.
I don't deny the role of oil, nor the pivotal nature of the Saudi regime, nor that it is the US' other key partner in the Middle East. That's abundantly obvious. But you said "NATO is all about promoting Wahhabism". I repeat: this is an absurd statement. And almost go as far to say it's objectively wrong.

 

[Diego Napier]

Ultimately the "people's spring" of 1848 was unsuccessful, this time around let's hope the outcome is different and power is restored to the people.

It can't be restored, the people have never had any power, particularly in the British Isles.

 

[Triggaaar]

The parallels with the 1930's aren't hard to miss are they.

"are hard to miss"

 

[JCL666]

I agree with much of what you're saying here, but the thing missing is about the rise of other powers -- China especially, India and probably others too -- and the decline of the West. Trump's election was a recognition within the US that it has peaked and, while still the dominant power, is on the slide, but it will also in all probability accelerate that process and the global realignment.
One book worth reading at the moment (which I haven't done, yet, at least) is Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. I can see the links with the 1930s, but it's difficult to overplay those, despite the fact that another thing going on then was a global realignment -- decline of Europe, rise of US and the Soviet Union.

I'll give that book a go!

 

[Machiavelli]

I'll give that book a go!

I might do too, but you read it first and let me know whether I should bother