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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Yoda
English & European
The Spanish
Well-known member
Just your lawn?
Can you explain what is the parallel run compared to the GFS 'straight run ??
Yoda
English & European
They are running both the updated system and the current one together until the new one goes officially live.
It just ends up giving a slightly different reading, not sure how accurate it is yet.
It just ends up giving a slightly different reading, not sure how accurate it is yet.
ah ok, so are you looking at a different run and evolution from the current gfs ?? Sorry just slightly confused !!
Yoda
English & European
Basically, yes. The upgraded run can be fond here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-update-2014;sess=
The latest model has us back to a green xmas.
Vegas Seagull
New member
- Jul 10, 2009
- 7,782
Weather Warning : tonight midnight to 8am heavy winds and rain South coast
HalifaxSeagull
Active member
- Aug 24, 2010
- 772
On the way home this eve on a high route from 300m and above the drizzle turned into snow. When I dropped down the other side it was back to rain. Odd really that the same clouds only a mile or so apart are giving different precipitation! View attachment 60816
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
The Met Office are very cautiously suggesting that it might start getting colder as we approach New Year:
The end of December will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. Temperatures are expected to be around average at first. However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although there is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this.
The end of December will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. Temperatures are expected to be around average at first. However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although there is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this.
vegster
Sanity Clause
- May 5, 2008
- 27,900
It was Wheely Bin Carnage in Worthing this morning, saw one in the road and several had gone over on pavements, a pitiful sight as the poor things are like Tortoises on their backs, completely helpless.
SK1NT
Well-known member
i really really really want snow.... it is one of the most exciting things to look forward to as an adult.
Snow is the adults version of santa clause.
Snow is the adults version of santa clause.
D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
I think the Snow is going to be a no show this year and early in to next year. I'm going by what I am reading online. May be the NSC weather experts can confirm, from what I read it's going to be far too mild for anything. Wasn't the reason we had snow last time was because of the jet stream being slightly lower?
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,581
We're stuck in a rut at the moment with mild unsettled spells interspersed with colder spells. However the colder spells are not hanging around long enough for any snow to come down here before it turns milder again.
I have to say its looking like this pattern is set to stay until the end of year.
However there is a chink of light for coldies as we go into the New Year there is a hint of a pattern change which will hopefully mean our chances of snow will increase significantly.
As a gut instinct, I reckon we'll have a cold spell from around the 10th Jan. The better chances of the white stuff the further we get into winter.
I have to say its looking like this pattern is set to stay until the end of year.
However there is a chink of light for coldies as we go into the New Year there is a hint of a pattern change which will hopefully mean our chances of snow will increase significantly.
As a gut instinct, I reckon we'll have a cold spell from around the 10th Jan. The better chances of the white stuff the further we get into winter.
ryans father
New member
It is beginning to look like a pattern change could arrive between Christmas and New Year, with both the AO and the NAO forecast to go sharply negative. This will in turn encourage northern and Atlantic blocking pulling our weather in from Northern or Eastern directions. If this pattern persists cold is almost inevitable eventually which is always the first step on the road to snow.
My bet is that we will have a first taste of winter before New Year and a more sustained very cold period in January.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Yep - there's certainly signs that a change might be in the offing.
The ECM and Meto professional output (which goes beyond the published data) is showing blocking in the Atlantic (hence the -ve NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)) which could signal s northerly flow over the UK.
The NAO is a measure of the relative pressure between the Azores and near Iceland - the 'usual' setup - with an Azores High and low pressure to the north is a +NAO. A negative NAO corresponds to High Pressure to our North and Low pressure near the Azores - in other words Northern blocking and a chance of cold weather here.
The latest GFS ensemble chart for the Sussex area shows some signs of colder weather and snow chances after Xmas.
There is a high chance of 60F on Thursday. This winter is an utter write off
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
That's the week - it gets cold again at the weekend.
Scoffers
Well-known member
A new headline for the Daily Mail - Winter is officially cancelled