[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

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seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,698
Crap Town
Arctic winds supposed to be blowing down the whole of the UK from Thursday/Friday onwards so more bitterly cold weather is on its way. :cool:
 






Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,930
Worthing
Would rather rely on the NSC Oracle for this especially as I have to be Oop North (Manchester way) Thursday through Saturday. Am I going to need snow chains, blankets & Kendal Mint Cake Papa L? ???

It could be pretty bad in the north over the weekend, as a cold low is due to move down from the north and there is a chance of heavy snow on its northern 'flank'.
 




jakarta

Well-known member
May 25, 2007
15,645
Sullington
It could be pretty bad in the north over the weekend, as a cold low is due to move down from the north and there is a chance of heavy snow on its northern 'flank'.

Thanks and oh bugger! Up there from Thursday think our return will be swift and on Saturday rather than Sunday now.....
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,659
And for the West from Friday? Particularly Longleat area?
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,659
I would suggest looking at the latest updates that the South Coast (Worthing and East) will get a dusting at the most. Hopefully Longleat will get more of a proper dump.
 




Napper

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
23,925
Sussex
Any more updates NSC experts ?

Saturday will do me , really need this game on Fri so hopefully the experts can bring us some positives for the weekend ?
 


Gritt23

New member
Jul 7, 2003
14,902
Meopham, Kent.
Thursday night in Orpington would be handy. Just enough that the VAT man can't make it in to our offices for the scheduled visit on Friday.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,930
Worthing
The detail of this 'event' is still hard to tie down. We have 2 things happening:

1. A couple of cold fronts coming down from the north Thurs into Friday. This is complicated by the fact that the very cold air is right behind the front, so it will probably start as rain down here. It may well turn to snow, as the cold air undercuts the 2nd front, but it will be reliant on a number of factors for us to get settling snow. After that we're into some very cold air from a long way north. The bare forecast has this as relatively dry, but we'll see.

2. Late Saturday onwards - a cold low pressure is going to wander down from Scandinavia, and will bring some strong winds and heavy precipitation with it. The exact path of this low is crucial, and the models don't seem to have a clue as to where it's going. The further to the East and the further south it gets to the better for snow in out region. This is because we don't want to get in the East to South of the low, as this will drag in milder air from the SW to S.

After that the low will drag in milder air anyway, and the snow will retreat north.

So, it's all in the balance. One thing to not is that over the weekend, with the very cold airflow, we could see some bone chillingly cold nights over England.
 




robinsonsgrin

Well-known member
Mar 16, 2009
1,455
LA...wishing it was devon..
"Late Saturday onwards - a cold low pressure is going to wander down from Scandinavia"

have visions of it whistling whilst it wanders, or perhaps singing a lovely tune, or sauntering in like a sex machine - oh, no, that's another thought in my head altogether..!
Papa L...you are indeed wonderful... ty x
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,930
Worthing
this 'event' is something of a forecasting nightmare down here. Forecasts for the weekend vary wildly from mild to heavy snow!
 


Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee

You can't change fighters
NSC Patron
Jul 25, 2005
10,862
on a pig farm
ive heard on the radio, that this cold snap could well last for a month.
i DO however only believe papa :)
 




The Wizard

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2009
18,383
0% agreement in the models tonight, absolute nightmare forecasting as one movement changes everything in these scenarios...
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,659
Previous events have ben well forecasted on Netweather, so I would place some reliance on them, and of cause Papa. For the first time this winter though I'm hoping Worthing misses out as we won't be here!!!
 








Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,930
Worthing
I don't have a good feeling about this - think we're going to miss out this time.

But I'll wait for Papa's teachings. In Papa we trust.

Saturday's looking very snowy down here at the moment.

These will change - so get them while they're cold:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/12/16/basis00/ukuk/rart/10121812_2_1600.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/12/16/basis00/ukuk/rart/10121818_2_1600.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/12/16/basis00/ukuk/rart/10121900_2_1600.gif
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,930
Worthing
If you fancy reviewing a series of GFS ensemble forecasts, a fellow weather watcher maintains a selection here:

Ensembles - GFS / ECMWF--

Each line represents one of the ensemble runs the GFS run each time. The thick green line is the published run (the one we see charts for). Any 850hpa temps near -10C will be pretty much all snow, so Saturday looks pretty certainly snow down here.

One other thing to note - for some reason the grid point wetterzentrale (who produce these) is actually in the channel off the Sussex coast!
 


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