[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

Hi, I'm interested in the source as this is good detail

It sounds like the promised MOD ammunition that Prigorzhin had demanded for Wagner in last weeks rant, hasn't materialised and he's pulled his Wagner goons out of positions? Either that or some internal bun fighting with the VDV paratroopers 72nd.

I hope this is true and that the Russian fascists are fracturing and in disarray.

 

[sparkie]

Ukrainians have retaken 3km on the south flank in Bakhmut, the Russian 72nd rifle brigade practically ran away. Wagner sent in 4 armoured troop vehicles to try and save the situation which were promptly destroyed. Keep it up boys

Interesting.

Could be a feint, or it could be that the initial counterattack target is Donetsk City, or sweeping down east of Donetsk before heading to Mariupol and the coast. Not what I'd expect, you never know.

 

[Eric the meek]

It sounds like the promised MOD ammunition that Prigorzhin had demanded for Wagner in last weeks rant, hasn't materialised and he's pulled his Wagner goons out of positions? Either that or some internal bun fighting with the VDV paratroopers 72nd.

I hope this is true and that the Russian fascists are fracturing and in disarray.

A few observations.

1. The account is apparently authored by a Russian volunteer, Anastasiya Kashevarova. It paints the elements of the Russian war effort in a very militarily poor light, and I imagine there is some information in it which would be useful to Ukraine. As such, it is surprising to see it in the public domain. There is always the possibility that it is false, and all part of some elaborate propaganda attempt by Moscow. But my guess is that it is true. If it is, then it may mean the beginnings of a breakdown in the control of the media, that we have become used to, and there may be further signs of it in the coming weeks and months.

2. I'm drawn to the idea that Wagner and the Russian military don't communicate, and indeed the Russian military are not allowed to communicate with Wagner. This suggests, at the very least, a mistrust of Wagner within the Kremlin, and Wagner's (i.e. Prigozhin's) political ambitions.

3. The possible fragmentation, squabbling and mistrust within the elements of the Russian war effort, is something to exploit, but also to be wary of. None of them will want to take responsibility for failure, and therefore, will keep the bad news to themselves, if only for fear of rival elements making capital out of it. This effect could get even worse than in the early stages of the war, when Putin's decision-making was hampered by a 'yes man' mentality through fear, as well as his own jaundiced view of the world. While we would all like Russia to eat itself alive, it could lead to dangerous and unpredictable consequences. If the Ukrainians turf them out of Ukraine, as we all hope, we could have a number of rival factions, battle-hardened, armed and jostling for power and the booty of a weak, declining Moscow.

 

[raymondo]

It sounds like the promised MOD ammunition that Prigorzhin had demanded for Wagner in last weeks rant, hasn't materialised and he's pulled his Wagner goons out of positions? Either that or some internal bun fighting with the VDV paratroopers 72nd.

I hope this is true and that the Russian fascists are fracturing and in disarray.

I'd seen Prigozhin's video but not that Telegram post via Dmitri. Interesting to read the detail.
Thanks

 

[peterward]

A few observations.

1. The account is apparently authored by a Russian volunteer, Anastasiya Kashevarova. It paints the elements of the Russian war effort in a very militarily poor light, and I imagine there is some information in it which would be useful to Ukraine. As such, it is surprising to see it in the public domain. There is always the possibility that it is false, and all part of some elaborate propaganda attempt by Moscow. But my guess is that it is true. If it is, then it may mean the beginnings of a breakdown in the control of the media, that we have become used to, and there may be further signs of it in the coming weeks and months.

2. I'm drawn to the idea that Wagner and the Russian military don't communicate, and indeed the Russian military are not allowed to communicate with Wagner. This suggests, at the very least, a mistrust of Wagner within the Kremlin, and Wagner's (i.e. Prigozhin's) political ambitions.

3. The possible fragmentation, squabbling and mistrust within the elements of the Russian war effort, is something to exploit, but also to be wary of. None of them will want to take responsibility for failure, and therefore, will keep the bad news to themselves, if only for fear of rival elements making capital out of it. This effect could get even worse than in the early stages of the war, when Putin's decision-making was hampered by a 'yes man' mentality through fear, as well as his own jaundiced view of the world. While we would all like Russia to eat itself alive, it could lead to dangerous and unpredictable consequences. If the Ukrainians turf them out of Ukraine, as we all hope, we could have a number of rival factions, battle-hardened, armed and jostling for power and the booty of a weak, declining Moscow.

With your point 1, I'm sure its a truly expressed account as such..... the twitter account I posted of Dmitiri @Wartranslated is a UK based Russian speaker who literally spends hours every day trawling the pro Russian and Russian nationalist telegram groups and grabs stuff of interest being said amongst themseleves and then translates it to English etc and republishes.

The Russian volunteer Anastasiya Kashevarova wouldve said that to other similar view Russians on a pro Russian telegram group, how true that view is, is uncertain.

 

[portslade seagull]

Sounds like more ground has been taken on the south flank

 

[A1X]

Interesting.

Could be a feint, or it could be that the initial counterattack target is Donetsk City, or sweeping down east of Donetsk before heading to Mariupol and the coast. Not what I'd expect, you never know.

Would allow them to encircle a fairly large part of the Russian force, plus cuts any route to Crimea other than the bridge

 

[Eric the meek]

With your point 1, I'm sure its a truly expressed account as such..... the twitter account I posted of Dmitiri @Wartranslated is a UK based Russian speaker who literally spends hours every day trawling the pro Russian and Russian nationalist telegram groups and grabs stuff of interest being said amongst themseleves and then translates it to English etc and republishes.

The Russian volunteer Anastasiya Kashevarova wouldve said that to other similar view Russians on a pro Russian telegram group, how true that view is, is uncertain.

Ah, thanks. I wasn't aware of that. I understand what you're saying.

So it's a pro Russian account. The fact that it contains stuff that is pretty critical of the war effort, means that it is probably legitimate. It kind of rang true anyway.

 

[peterward]

Interesting too. Prigorzhin not happy and seemingly not getting enough ammunition.

 

[raymondo]

Interesting too. Prigorzhin not happy and seemingly not getting enough ammunition.

Prigozhin's statements are always interesting, even if he may be bullshitting or crying wolf somewhat.
I guess it's possible the Russian military are rationing delivery of shells and other ammo to the Bakhmut front, stockpiling reserves against the inevitable Ukraine counteroffensive...and they don't know where this will happen.

 

[A1X]

 

[raymondo]

He'll need all the equipment and ammo he can get his hands on

 

[Eric the meek]

He'll need all the equipment and ammo he can get his hands on

That may be true. Or it may be he has already got it. Or it may mean he is adding to Putin's discomfort. 'We need to wait just a bit longer, so that all our advanced western weapons are in place'.

Would he broadcast it if he really needed more equipment and ammo? Requests for more equipment would surely be made through the established channels.
More likely, he has watched what has been happening, and concluded that the anticipation of the Ukrainian counter offensive could be doing as much damage to Russian morale, as the actual counter offensive, when it comes.

Russian behaviour has been distinctly odd of late, what with the drone attack, the Prigozhin rant, internecine squabbling etc. We even appear to have had a partial withdrawal from Bakhmut after horrific losses. At his victory day parade, Putin declared that the future of Russia depends on the outcome of the war. He knows he faces an existential crisis.

Russia is losing its own mind games.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

This is an interesting read about the link between Wintershall (a German oil and gas company) and fuel supplies to the Russian military. Also references a Der Spiegel investigation into the same and continued ownership of joint assets with Gazprom despite claims to the contrary and potential claims by the company from German taxpayers.

How A German Gas Giant's Investments May Be Fueling Russia's Military, Including In Ukraine

www.rferl.org

I don’t know much about the source but it popped up on my LinkedIn from a respected journalist contact so I am passing it on.

 

[raymondo]

That may be true. Or it may be he has already got it. Or it may mean he is adding to Putin's discomfort. 'We need to wait just a bit longer, so that all our advanced western weapons are in place'.

Would he broadcast it if he really needed more equipment and ammo? Requests for more equipment would surely be made through the established channels.
More likely, he has watched what has been happening, and concluded that the anticipation of the Ukrainian counter offensive could be doing as much damage to Russian morale, as the actual counter offensive, when it comes.

Russian behaviour has been distinctly odd of late, what with the drone attack, the Prigozhin rant, internecine squabbling etc. We even appear to have had a partial withdrawal from Bakhmut after horrific losses. At his victory day parade, Putin declared that the future of Russia depends on the outcome of the war. He knows he faces an existential crisis.

Russia is losing its own mind games.

I agree that the anticipation and uncertainty (when, where) of the counteroffensive has Russia on the backfoot.
But yes, I do believe Zelensky and his military leaders frequently broadcast they need more ammo and hardware. Whether it's 100%true or partly a diversion...I don't know. Clearly the more Ukraine has, and still in the delivery pipeline, the longer they can sustain an effective counteroffensive.

 

[peterward]

This is interesting as Zelensky says they need to wait to get all the hardware support they need, and on Ukrainian TV today (Mrs is watching) the ticker at bottom says "US states Ukraine already has all the hardware it needs for counter offensive".

US is pushing back on Zelensky statement

Clearly a gap in perceptions

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This is interesting as Zelensky says they need to wait to get all the hardware support they need, and on Ukrainian TV today (Mrs is watching) the ticker at bottom says "US states Ukraine already has all the hardware it needs for counter offensive".

US is pushing back on Zelensky statement

Clearly a gap in perceptions

Ukraine should only go when they are ready to go. It's their soldiers being sent to fight, many will die whatever equipment they are sent. Zelensky is spot on, as usual, try to find ways of minimising his countries losses as much as he possibly can.

 

[raymondo]

This is interesting as Zelensky says they need to wait to get all the hardware support they need, and on Ukrainian TV today (Mrs is watching) the ticker at bottom says "US states Ukraine already has all the hardware it needs for counter offensive".

US is pushing back on Zelensky statement

Clearly a gap in perceptions

Hmmm... I don't feel the US needed to say anything in response, as Zelensky hadn't directly criticised them. Better to leave Ukraine to decide what statements they make at this time.

 

[Eric the meek]

Hmmm... I don't feel the US needed to say anything in response, as Zelensky hadn't directly criticised them. Better to leave Ukraine to decide what statements they make at this time.

Agreed. Russia is always looking for signs that the supply of weapons to Ukraine will slow/stop.

 

[Gabbiano]

Hmmm... I don't feel the US needed to say anything in response, as Zelensky hadn't directly criticised them. Better to leave Ukraine to decide what statements they make at this time.

I think the US actually said this before Zelenskyy’s statement. If I recall it was said in some press conference by Blinken a few days ago.

So it’s more Zelenskyy pushing back saying “yes we have enough to meet objectives but at an unacceptable human cost”

I’m not sure whether the fact this is being discussed openly is indicative that the counteroffensive is imminent (lulling Russia into thinking they have more time) or a genuine tactic to draw more support before going in big.