[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby Cybergoat]

There's another possibility in this delay (ok there's no delay at all as logistics strikes having been gathering pace), that the Ukraine hierarchy are waiting for particular kit and the capability to deploy particular kit. Such as the long range missiles it's being reported today that we are donating or have donated.

 

[raymondo]

I think the US actually said this before Zelenskyy’s statement. If I recall it was said in some press conference by Blinken a few days ago.

So it’s more Zelenskyy pushing back saying “yes we have enough to meet objectives but at an unacceptable human cost”

I’m not sure whether the fact this is being discussed openly is indicative that the counteroffensive is imminent (lulling Russia into thinking they have more time) or a genuine tactic to draw more support before going in big.

Thanks, yes I think Blinken did say it a few days back.

 

[Eric the meek]

There's another possibility in this delay (ok there's no delay at all as logistics strikes having been gathering pace), that the Ukraine hierarchy are waiting for particular kit and the capability to deploy particular kit. Such as the long range missiles it's being reported today that we are donating or have donated.

Yes, that's what he said early on in the BBC clip:

'In terms of equipment, not everything has arrived yet'.

Zelensky says Ukraine needs more time for counter-offensive

Ukraine's president says in an interview his country would "lose a lot of people" if it attacks now.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't know if there is a link between what he said, and this news on the BBC:

UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine

The Storm Shadow cruise missile will give Ukraine new capabilities in its conflict with Russia.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[peterward]

There's another possibility in this delay (ok there's no delay at all as logistics strikes having been gathering pace), that the Ukraine hierarchy are waiting for particular kit and the capability to deploy particular kit. Such as the long range missiles it's being reported today that we are donating or have donated.

I Read 2 interesting articles that may or not be 2+2=4. That Russia through back channels have told the US that ATACMS are a red line.

Not sure how we could ever get to the point where the aggressor sets the terms for the response to their genocide!

But then not very long after the UK is putting out a global procurement for long range missiles to donate to Ukraine.

Could it be that the US will sell ATACMS to UK to then donate?

Seemingly the UK is in a tender/procurement phase rather than at point of donation

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I Read 2 interesting articles that may or not be 2+2=4. That Russia through back channels have told the US that ATACMS are a red line.

Not sure how we could ever get to the point where the aggressor sets the terms for the response to their genocide!

But then not very long after the UK is putting out a global procurement for long range missiles to donate to Ukraine.

Could it be that the US will sell ATACMS to UK to then donate?

Seemingly the UK is in a tender/procurement phase rather than at point of donation

Red lines? pah? They've said this before. **** em. The world needs to be les scared of bellicose rhetoric from Russia.

 

[chickens]

Red lines? pah? They've said this before. **** em. The world needs to be les scared of bellicose rhetoric from Russia.

Absolutely this, Putin is (I suspect in every sense of the word) impotent.

He can threaten whatever he wants, but the reality of geopolitics is that the most extreme actions he advocates would lose him all international support and immediately begin a global conflict he cannot win. He can’t beat one of his neighbours, let alone NATO combined.

I know there are posters on here who believe the Russian hype, that Putin is “El loco” etc etc, but the simple fact is he’s been poorly advised, badly misjudged his neighbours and will eventually have to agree a face-saving deal or accept swift annihilation if he decides to “take on the world.”

The only scenario I fear is actually Trump returning to the White House before the battle is settled, he can’t wait to hand huge swathes of Ukraine over to his master.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Absolutely this, Putin is (I suspect in every sense of the word) impotent.

He can threaten whatever he wants, but the reality of geopolitics is that the most extreme actions he advocates would lose him all international support and immediately begin a global conflict he cannot win. He can’t beat one of his neighbours, let alone NATO combined.

I know there are posters on here who believe the Russian hype, that Putin is “El loco” etc etc, but the simple fact is he’s been poorly advised, badly misjudged his neighbours and will eventually have to agree a face-saving deal or accept swift annihilation if he decides to “take on the world.”

The only scenario I fear is actually Trump returning to the White House before the battle is settled, he can’t wait to hand huge swathes of Ukraine over to his master.

Yes. Decisive Ukraine success this summer would make the next year or so much less complicated.

 

[peterward]

Red lines? pah? They've said this before. **** em. The world needs to be les scared of bellicose rhetoric from Russia.

 

[chickens]

That puts into words, and provides background to, something I’ve been feeling for some time. Thank you for posting it.

 

[The Clamp]

It’s really rather simple and also, I suspect rather complicated. However, If the West wished to supply the right weapons to Ukraine to end this war, they would have done so long ago.

 

[peterward]

It’s really rather simple and also, I suspect rather complicated. However, If the West wished to supply the right weapons to Ukraine to end this war, they would have done so long ago.

I personally think the West, whilst siding with the victim Ukraine, and feeling a degree of moral revulsion and genuine need to support, is also worried about the what next if Putin falls ( is Putin worse than a blood thirsty loon like Prigorzhin or Kadyrov? ) or is backed into such a corner he feels he has nothing left to lose so does something crazy like nukes......

It does often feel like the support is enough to ensure Putin can't win, but not quite enough to ensure he's desively defeated.

If the real truth were known, I'd bet the US and soft EU pseudo supporters like France & Germany would love a settlement where Putin gets something face saving like Crimea and avoids the perceived risks to west of his total wipeout.

Ukraine shouldn't accept this and cannot politically, but the support or lack thereof seems imho designed to try and get to this preferred Western, risk averse outcome.

 

[Eric the meek]

It’s really rather simple and also, I suspect rather complicated. However, If the West wished to supply the right weapons to Ukraine to end this war, they would have done so long ago.

I agree.

Here is my own personal take.

The west has drip-fed Ukraine with just enough weapons to defend itself, but not enough to win the war. Along with sanctions, this has had the effect of slowly draining Russia of money, its war chest, friends, power, influence, troops, an acquiescent population, an economy and a future.

If the west had supplied Ukraine with the right weapons to end the war, Russia could still have ended the war as the loser, but not as weakened as it already is, and able to have another go in a few years time.

I think the west has played a blinder, and done it with very few boots on the ground.

 

[raymondo]

I agree.

Here is my own personal take.

The west has drip-fed Ukraine with just enough weapons to defend itself, but not enough to win the war. Along with sanctions, this has had the effect of slowly draining Russia of money, its war chest, friends, power, influence, troops, an acquiescent population, an economy and a future.

If the west had supplied Ukraine with the right weapons to end the war, Russia could still have ended the war as the loser, but not as weakened as it already is, and able to have another go in a few years time.

I think the west has played a blinder, and done it with very few boots on the ground.

It's a valid view, and could be correct (although it's all shades of grey). Let's see how it turns out...if we ever get to a point where it feels like the conflict has ended.

 

[raymondo]

Here's an update from the OSCE talking shop. The speeches are always in measured tones, but I found this one more interesting than usual. A big shame though he referred to Russian "colleagues" in the room... I mean WTAF.
Anyway, may be interesting for some of us unaware of these regular updates.

Russia must realise that it can never win in Ukraine. If it keeps fighting, it will keep losing: UK statement to the OSCE

UK military advisor, Ian Stubbs, says Moscow’s reprehensible actions in Ukraine corrupt the memory of past sacrifices and Russia’s once-proud global reputation.

www.gov.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's an update from the OSCE talking shop. The speeches are always in measured tones, but I found this one more interesting than usual. A big shame though he referred to Russian "colleagues" in the room... I mean WTAF.
Anyway, may be interesting for some of us unaware of these regular updates.

Russia must realise that it can never win in Ukraine. If it keeps fighting, it will keep losing: UK statement to the OSCE

UK military advisor, Ian Stubbs, says Moscow’s reprehensible actions in Ukraine corrupt the memory of past sacrifices and Russia’s once-proud global reputation.

www.gov.uk

Yes, a good speech, tainted somewhat by the 'Russian colleagues'. They are a lot of things, but are most definitely not colleagues. Perhaps this was just a result of the speaker failing to find an alternative word that struck a less collaborative tone. Russian nationals?

 

[vegster]

By the sound of things on Twitter things are starting to happen. Lots of small exploratory advances by Ukraine..they are feeling out the Russians and looking for weaknesses.

 

[sparkie]

The Vatniks and russian bots absolutely lost it on twitter over the UK supplying Storm Shadow missiles.

Shouldn't have used Novichok and Polonium-210 in the UK should they ? Lol.

Storm warning from the Minister of Defense:

 

[peterward]

South Africa supplied arms to Russia - US ambassador Reuben Brigety

President Cyril Ramaphosa's office says it is disappointed by the claims and demands evidence.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia-Ukraine war: Zelenskiy thanks UK for Storm Shadow missiles; Kremlin denies ground lost in Bakhmut – as it happened

Ukrainian president says he thanked Rishi Sunak for long-range missiles in telephone call

www.theguardian.com

 

[A1X]

Russia-Ukraine war: Zelenskiy thanks UK for Storm Shadow missiles; Kremlin denies ground lost in Bakhmut – as it happened

Ukrainian president says he thanked Rishi Sunak for long-range missiles in telephone call

www.theguardian.com