[News] Lockdown lifting - when?

[Richy_Seagull]

A study published yesterday indicated that 4 to 32 million people in the UK have already been infected. If towards the higher end it's likely that a vaccine wouldn't even be needed.

Still no firm evidence that people will not get reinfected. There is simply not enough know about the virus at this stage. It seems to be coming in a huge number of different forms, affecting people in different ways.

The idea of ending the lockdown now seems absurd tbh. Quite simply the numbers will go back up, and incredibly quickly. The Government's handling in all of this has been atrocious, but that is done now, so getting the next couple of months right is the most important thing. Listen to the WHO, not Cummings and his cronies.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

A study published yesterday indicated that 4 to 32 million people in the UK have already been infected. If towards the higher end it's likely that a vaccine wouldn't even be needed.

My study says that between 100,000 and 67 million people have already been infected in the UK.

Their study seems only marginally more precise lol.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Still no firm evidence that people will not get reinfected. There is simply not enough know about the virus at this stage. It seems to be coming in a huge number of different forms, affecting people in different ways.

The idea of ending the lockdown now seems absurd tbh. Quite simply the numbers will go back up, and incredibly quickly. The Government's handling in all of this has been atrocious, but that is done now, so getting the next couple of months right is the most important thing. Listen to the WHO, not Cummings and his cronies.

But wasn't Cummings advocating lockdown when the science was suggesting otherwise?

 

[El Presidente]

Someone obviously shat on your cornflakes this morning.

I didn’t know Stat Brother lived in Germany.

 

[Milano]

I understand how you feel. It's hard to envisage how this turns around. And the answer is going to be slowly, one step at a time.

But it WILL turn around. And while, at least for some time, it won't go away, we will learn to live with it, one way or another. This involves learning to live with a level, and type, of managed risk in our lives that was not previously there and which has appeared (in historical terms) instantly. Which is why it's so hard to imagine.

Think of someone was transported from a world with no cars, or anything that could move faster than a horse. And explaining to them the risks involved in travelling in a vehicle at 70+mph. And exposing them every single day to a barrage of information, images and statistics about car related injuries and deaths. They would live in terror and be very very scared of getting in a car. But we have become completely accepting of thse risks and they do not figure in our day to day life, and do not generally exert any influence over decisions we make.

So we will reduce and manage the risk. And then we will learn to live with a slightly higher risk than before, and begin to not notice. Then we'll work out how to get rid of it completely. Maybe sooner, maybe later. But we will.

And then we'll re-set our society and economy to be more equal, cleaner, more resilient because we have all learnt something about what and who we really value.

Well...maybe.

Or maybe we'll all go out every Thursday evening and make a noise for all the hedge fund managers, marketing executives, celebrities, sports stars and others that we seem to find so invaluable to us in 'normal' times.

That’s the 2020 post of the year sorted.

 

[daveinplzen]

Think youre a couple of weeks behind CZ and whist improving here, its nowhere near the end game. I would think 6 weeks safely.

 

[Milano]

On a purely selfish view we are desperately hoping that the schools go back sometime in June, even if only a day a week. Our eldest is in year 6 and this is very hard on him (and others), he is very sad about not properly leaving primary and missing all the leaving events he’s watched the other year 6s do for the previous 6 years.
I know it’s not that important in the grander picture but for an 11 year old it actually is.

 

[Notters]

Still no firm evidence that people will not get reinfected. There is simply not enough know about the virus at this stage. It seems to be coming in a huge number of different forms, affecting people in different ways.

The idea of ending the lockdown now seems absurd tbh. Quite simply the numbers will go back up, and incredibly quickly. The Government's handling in all of this has been atrocious, but that is done now, so getting the next couple of months right is the most important thing. Listen to the WHO, not Cummings and his cronies.

Don't these two sentences contradict each other at this stage - I don't think we'll know how effective the government's handling has been until way after it's all over, but I think countries who have had a much stricter approach could struggle for many years and therefore have many more deaths from other causes such as cancer, or much greater economic harm.

For example New Zealand has nearly eradicated the disease but is highly reliant on tourism - what do they do, stop tourists coming for ten years so that the virus doesn't re-emerge?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Think youre a couple of weeks behind CZ and whist improving here, its nowhere near the end game. I would think 6 weeks safely.

What puts us a couple of weeks behind Dave ? Do you have a more effective lockdown over there ? I’m just wondering what our Government can do.

 

[Mellotron]

Never. People need to accept this is the new way of life from now on. There will be partial lifting of some things and then locking down again for years. Even after if or when they find a vaccine for this one the next virus will now be met with a lockdown now a precident has been set. Even with a release this social distancing is so ingrained in people now, interactions will never be the same again and many people will just go out for essentials. I cannot image gatherings of people again, so doubt cinema's pubs concert halls stadium events will ever happen again and as such are now finished

Uncle,

I recommend you spend more time in the Coronavirus Good News Thread. You’d see that we are fighting back against this virus more and more each day. It’s a horrible situation but we WILL come through it to the other side.

Look after yourself.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Don't these two sentences contradict each other at this stage - I don't think we'll know how effective the government's handling has been until way after it's all over, but I think countries who have had a much stricter approach could struggle for many years and therefore have many more deaths from other causes such as cancer, or much greater economic harm.

For example New Zealand has nearly eradicated the disease but is highly reliant on tourism - what do they do, stop tourists coming for ten years so that the virus doesn't re-emerge?

Agreed. The only Government decision I would take issue with is not closing the airports quickly enough at the beginning.

 

[Nitram]

All the countries that pursed a vigorous course of testing to find out where the virus was have succeeded. We started off with that approach then abandoned it. Was the herd immunity theory behind this? Our approach is based in science, supposedly, but is that the case, have scientists been properly listened to, in particular Sage, or have the government fudged advice? Why weren’t the stockpiles of PPE fit for purpose?
We will have the worst death rate behind the USA. That has been acknowledged as a car crash of a response to the pandemic and I see our response being viewed in a similar manner when this is examined later.
I don’t have any confidence in the country reopening any time soon.

 

[LlcoolJ]

It was never a proper lockdown in this Country compared to other countries anyway. I see that the Spanish will be allowed to take one exercise per day soon, we’re already looking at their death rate in envy.

Are we?

Coronavirus: Searching for truth behind Spain's care home tragedy


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52188820

The task of counting the dead continues in Spain, where the official toll has passed 24,000. It remains unclear how many of the deaths in nursing homes have been included in that total. As many people were cremated or buried without being tested, like Carmela, the disease's true numbers may never be known.

 

[Mellotron]

A study published yesterday indicated that 4 to 32 million people in the UK have already been infected. If towards the higher end it's likely that a vaccine wouldn't even be needed.

Source please?

 

[dazzer6666]

Are we?

Coronavirus: Searching for truth behind Spain's care home tragedy


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52188820

Chatting with a colleague in Spain (her in-laws are in the UK so she has a foot in both), she also thinks the care home issue in Spain is much worse than it is here..................

It's also too early to say IMO that certain countries have 'succeeded' or done much better in some cases. Second, third and even more waves of infection may change that landscape in the future - last week Singapore - previously a model of good management - had to go into lockdown because of large outbreaks in the migrant worker community.

 

[Weststander]

Agreed. The only Government decision I would take issue with is not closing the airports quickly enough at the beginning.

Also, in hindsight, allowing the Cheltenham Festival to go ahead.

Although interestingly, Ireland’s subsequent covid stats are low, despite 10,000’s of race goers from the ROI attending.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Plus, re the above very sad article from Spain, it's the same case in Italy where thousands of care home deaths and deaths in remote villages etc have gone untested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

I'm no fan of this government (or Cummings) but I do think they are between a rock and a hard place on the issue of reporting the statistics.

To start with they were chastised for "ignoring" deaths in care homes. But then when they try to get the most accurate figures for total deaths there's shock and horror that our figures are so high. In comparison to other countries whose stats are only hospital deaths (or it's "unclear" which deaths they do actually include).

Factor in the clear fact that many, many deaths that MAY have been the result of the virus have gone unrecorded (certainly in Spain and Italy) and you're comparing peas with gravy.

I actually trust our figures from the ONS to be the most accurate we can get at the moment. I can't say the same for some other countries.

 

[Weststander]

Chatting with a colleague in Spain (her in-laws are in the UK so she has a foot in both), she also thinks the care home issue in Spain is much worse than it is here..................

It's also too early to say IMO that certain countries have 'succeeded' or done much better in some cases. Second, third and even more waves of infection may change that landscape in the future - last week Singapore - previously a model of good management - had to go into lockdown because of large outbreaks in the migrant worker community.

A Spanish news website as well as a global statistical body, mention as many as 57% of Spanish covid deaths occurring in care homes and not recorded as such. Spanish police are investigated over 100 care homes where the staff left the elderly to die.

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

Now that we are only 1 week from the next review of the country's 'Lockdown' status I was wondering when NSC'ers think that this might be lifted. I know it's a case is how long is a piece of string but I'm cautiously optimistic.

I'm going for just one further period of 3 weeks which would take us to the end of May. Hoping that come early June I'll be able to go and see family and friends not seen in what seems like ages. Fingers crossed.

What's your guess?

Not bothered by the 26k plus who have died then? It'll be lifted when the times right and that is when the death rate falls below a certain rate and the infect rate passes the peak and hits the downward slope.

Which is exactly how it should be determined by. If it's another 5 weeks, it'll be hard yes, but it's worth it if it's saving lives.

Until then, you just have too bear with it and wait until you can meet in groups. We all want this over, but it's a National effort.

 

[darkwolf666]

Agreed. The only Government decision I would take issue with is not closing the airports quickly enough at the beginning.

Genuine question, have they closed them?