[Politics] Brexit

[jakarta]

Did they work out which country we would go to war with if Brexit happens ?

I believe the traditional answer to this is France. I presume we would wait until we have been knocked out of the Euros.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Its like we've gone back to the 70s, people are losing their ways and the easiest thing to do is fight (football) and blame immigrants for everything, whilst the rich just laugh at us... We're all just pawns in this game, it saddens me no one really sees it.

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[Deleted member 22389]

Just listening to LBC, I didn't know that postal votes can already be counted. From the samples they have taken Leave appear to be in the lead, on the radio they said it could be part of the reason Osbourne went in to overdrive yesterday telling us about tax increseases and cuts.

 

[drew]

Turkey misses the deadline for visa free travel, but if you look at the article you can see people are actively working inside the EU to push these things through.

When Remain tell us that Turkey will never join, they are wrong. What the EU wants, the EU gets whether you agree on it or not.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...dline-visa-free-travel-eu-ambassador-withdraw

Here is another article about working with Sudan and Eritrea, so it looks like the EU will be sending money to these countries. So I presume they will be looking for more money from all the member states to fund this? Also further down the article is reads

But buried deep within the draft document, the most eye-catching announcement concerns the EU’s “Better Migration Management” project, which the draft suggests “will start this summer”.

What does this mean? Instead of just turning people back they are going to start legally accepting people?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/06/eu-sudan-eritrea-migration

You still believe Turkey are going to join any time soon? They have met just one chapter out of 33 required (there are 35 chapters but I understand two are not compulsory) and that is for Science and Research. So, since their application to join in 1987 they have met one condition. They signed a Customs Agreement but have yet to implement it as they continue to block any ship from Cyprus entering their ports. They have just failed to meet deadlines in respect of visa free travel. Now roughly when do you think Turkey will be in a position to join?

As for migrants, bearing in mind your stance on immigration, surely looking at ways of stemming the numbers of economic migrants from Africa should be welcomed. Whether they are implemented remains to be seen but all avenues should be explored.

 

[Hillian1]

Having been firmly in the IN camp all along, after watching Michael Howard this morning on Breakfast I am very close to switching.

Rational argument without hysterical claims, a breath of fresh air.

 

[heathgate]

Wanting self government isn't clinging to the past. Thinking the elite know better than the people is.
Wanting democratic control over immigration isn't prejudice. Favouring Europeans over immigrants from elsewhere is.
Wanting the freedom to trade with the whole world isn't turning our back on the world. Establishing a protectionist customs union that imposes duties on poor farmers from developing countries is.
Wanting to leave the EU isn't hostility to our neighbours. Interference, threats and intimidation during a neighbour's referendum campaign certainly is.

Choose hope not fear. Vote Leave on 23rd June.

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[drew]

Having been firmly in the IN camp all along, after watching Michael Howard this morning on Breakfast I am very close to switching.

Rational argument without hysterical claims, a breath of fresh air.

He wasn't hysterical probably because he was on his own rather than confronting a Remain representative.

Very carefully referred to the billions we send to the EU rather than mention the discredited £350m a week figure. He claimed the figure of £3,400 per household had been widely discredited. Well firstly, wasn't it £4,300 and what was really discredited was the fact that households would be worse off by this amount rather than what the report really suggested in that GDP would be lower by an 'equivalent' of £4,300 per household than if we stay in the EU.

As for sovereignty, my own view is that if there is a Brexit, power will return not to the man in the street but to the Establishment where it was before we joined the EU and it is that Establishment that is driving the leave campaign as they have more to gain than anyone else.

 

[Hillian1]

He wasn't hysterical probably because he was on his own rather than confronting a Remain representative.

Very carefully referred to the billions we send to the EU rather than mention the discredited £350m a week figure. He claimed the figure of £3,400 per household had been widely discredited. Well firstly, wasn't it £4,300 and what was really discredited was the fact that households would be worse off by this amount rather than what the report really suggested in that GDP would be lower by an 'equivalent' of £4,300 per household than if we stay in the EU.

As for sovereignty, my own view is that if there is a Brexit, power will return not to the man in the street but to the Establishment where it was before we joined the EU and it is that Establishment that is driving the leave campaign as they have more to gain than anyone else.

He also said everything, from both sides, is total guesswork.

I liked him.

VOTE OUT.

 

[drew]

He also said everything, from both sides, is total guesswork.

I liked him.

VOTE OUT.

It's a bit disingenuous to describe it as total guesswork, suggesting they are merely figures pulled out of a hat. There are methods used to arrive at those figures, whether you agree with them or not.

 

[Jim in the West]

As for sovereignty, my own view is that if there is a Brexit, power will return not to the man in the street but to the Establishment where it was before we joined the EU and it is that Establishment that is driving the leave campaign as they have more to gain than anyone else.

This is one of the many ironies of this contest. The public school, Oxbridge toffs are leading the poorer sections of our society down a road which will mean fewer jobs, fewer benefits, fewer opportunities. Once Boris, Nigel and Michael take up the reins there will be tax cuts for the rich and everything will be rosy for the elite. And - what's more - there will be just as many immigrants. Only they will be more educated and better placed to take "middle class" jobs. All the cr*p jobs which are currently undertaken by hard-working Poles and Lithuanians will be nicely reserved for Brits. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.

 

[LlcoolJ]

This is one of the many ironies of this contest. The public school, Oxbridge toffs are leading the poorer sections of our society down a road which will mean fewer jobs, fewer benefits, fewer opportunities. Once Boris, Nigel and Michael take up the reins there will be tax cuts for the rich and everything will be rosy for the elite. And - what's more - there will be just as many immigrants. Only they will be more educated and better placed to take "middle class" jobs. All the cr*p jobs which are currently undertaken by hard-working Poles and Lithuanians will be nicely reserved for Brits. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.

Coupled with the irony that those who most want to destroy the NHS are running a campaign that says they want to spend more money on it. As you say, it WOULD be funny but it really isn't. It's horribly depressing that there are so many people fooled by these devious, lying scumbags.

 

[cunning fergus]

This is one of the many ironies of this contest. The public school, Oxbridge toffs are leading the poorer sections of our society down a road which will mean fewer jobs, fewer benefits, fewer opportunities. Once Boris, Nigel and Michael take up the reins there will be tax cuts for the rich and everything will be rosy for the elite. And - what's more - there will be just as many immigrants. Only they will be more educated and better placed to take "middle class" jobs. All the cr*p jobs which are currently undertaken by hard-working Poles and Lithuanians will be nicely reserved for Brits. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.

I have read some delusional stuff on here but this takes the biscuit........if you genuinely believe "the establishment" are advocating leave you (and others) should stop posting on these threads and do some research.

The campaign to stay has been overwhelmingly led by the establishment for the establishment, with a ceaseless stream of different establishment groups telling us about the consequences, only today it's town and city mayors.

There may be some interpretation in discussions on stats but this claim is absurd.

A few Tories/Labour MPs and some of the press does not an "establishment" make.

The people that are leave are generally the disenchanted electorate, who are not the establishment.

Proof if needed that some of you remain lot are either mad or liars.

 

[Maldini]

So Gove get's his own Question time yesterday at 6.45 on a working day yet Cameron get's his not only 4 days away from the vote but 6.45 on a Sunday.I smell a BBC rat.

Question time tomorrow with arrogant publicity seeking **** Geldof should be interesting.

 

[sten_super]

I have read some delusional stuff on here but this takes the biscuit........if you genuinely believe "the establishment" are advocating leave you (and others) should stop posting on these threads and do some research.

The campaign to stay has been overwhelmingly led by the establishment for the establishment, with a ceaseless stream of different establishment groups telling us about the consequences, only today it's town and city mayors.

There may be some interpretation in discussions on stats but this claim is absurd.

A few Tories/Labour MPs and some of the press does not an "establishment" make.

The people that are leave are generally the disenchanted electorate, who are not the establishment.

Proof if needed that some of you remain lot are either mad or liars.

There's a clear gap between the majority of people voting to leave and the politicians that are likely to gain power off the back of it though. Do you trust Johnson, Gove, Patel et al to deliver less immigration, capital controls, etc. that would be required to reverse the trends of globalisation? These are politicians that have a history of being rabidly pro-market. If not them, do you believe that off the back of this referendum a general election will be called at which these disenfranchised masses will be aligned to vote for someone sufficiently outside of the norm (I guess that might be Corbyn's Labour Party, or more likely some kind of new workers party) to given them a mandate to deliver these kinds of results? Otherwise there's surely a danger that we'll be left outside of the EU but still at the behest of a rabidly free-market government.

 

[Albumen]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...pe-that-i-fought-for-and-my-comrades-died-for

Don’t abandon the Europe that I fought for – and my comrades died for

It is helpful to be old, for in my lifetime I have seen world population increase threefold; a stable seasonal climate become wildly unstable with drought, forest fires and floods; the pollution by humanity of the planet’s earth, air and waters to a stage where all life is threatened; and violence become a permanent, continuous tragedy in a world of great uncertainty.

The only stable community in this universal upheaval has been the European Union, formed from the wreckage of a continent for which I and millions of others fought six years of war. I write as a former airman, having flown well over 2,000 hours against three despotic enemy nations. That victory for the democracies has given Europe 70 years of peace and security in a widely unstable world. The “leave” chancers are campaigning to abandon this steady progress, citing values false or irrelevant, while they have no plan of what to do after jumping ship.

If the nation should fall for this deceit I can only conclude that the lives of my comrades – Irish, Scots, Welsh and English – were lost in vain. They will be rattling their bones, wherever in the world they fell, at the loss of the beliefs for which they fought.

Britain in Europe will enhance progress to higher values in the greater world; Britain out means a return to the early-20th-century chaos of warring states against each other.

I am 96. I remember how far we have come. I know what we stand to lose.
Franklin Medhurst, DFC (RAF 1939-46)
Carlton, County Durham

 

[larus]

Good article in the Telegraph again.

Remember when there were a thousand Leave campaigns and Remain was united behind the PM? With a week left to go, the positions are reversed. Leave is remarkably coherent and positive. Remain is tearing itself apart.

When Osborne hit the nuclear button on Wednesday and threatened the country with an austerity budget, Tory backbenchers said they’d never vote for it. And Labour, under the increasingly canny leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, said it wouldn’t support it either. It used to be that only the voters didn’t believe Project Fear. Now even the politicians have lost faith in it.

Brexit is winning the referendum and is currently headed for victory next Thursday. Barring two eventualities that I’ll return to later. But for now, if the referendum were held today, I’d guess that Leave would win for the following reasons.

Poll after poll puts Leave ahead

Maybe they are overestimating Leave’s support, maybe they are online and can’t be trusted because nothing on the internet can ever truly be trusted (I won’t even bank there). Whatever: momentum is with Leave. Even in Scotland, which traditionally is stubbornly pro-EU.

Remain shot its bolt early

The plan was clearly to roll out Treasury/IMF/expert advice in the first weeks of the campaign, terrify the population and build a commanding early lead. It didn’t work: voters were unconvinced by prophesies of depression and a third world war. Why would they change their minds in the next seven days? What more can Remain do to alarm them?

Remain is panicking

You don’t threaten to punish the country for voting Leave unless you think that it’s likely to do so – and you’re doing everything you can to stop it. What do they know that we don't?

The Sun has endorsed Brexit

The Sun doesn’t decide election winners but it does have a history of picking them.

The country has reasons to feel patriotic

The sun is out, the Queen is 90 and the football always unfurls the flags. Oxford Street is bedecked in red, white and blue right now. It looks like VE Day outside BHS.

Immigration

My mind keeps coming back to the extraordinary Ipsos Mori poll that showed that Remain support ebbs away when net migration increases well within the historic norm. When historians come to write books about this campaign, they may well identify the release of annual net migration figures back in late May as the turning point. The number 333,000 could be a chapter heading.

Brexit has the arguments

Last night I spoke at the Westminster Cathedral Hall debate in London on behalf of Brexit. The audience was polled beforehand and was for Remain. After the debate, it was for Leave. This was a gathering of city workers, Catholics (who have been told by many clergymen that it’s a moral duty to vote Remain) and the descendants of immigrants – not your classic Brexit audience. What I sense is that people are friendly towards the idea of the EU so long as it remains just an idea, a vague principle of solidarity and internationalism. When the realities of the EU in practice are spelled out, as has been slowly happening in this campaign, people wake up to the facts and are appalled. They ask themselves: do I get enough from the EU in exchange for the democratic control that I surrender? The answer is usually a “no”.

Having said all of this, there are two things that might switch momentum back to Remain. One is a last minute vow. Some desperate bid by the EU to get us to stay by offering an even more special relationship than the supposedly special relationship that Cameron negotiated a few months ago. Unless this vow includes something dramatic on immigration, it probably won’t work. But there are many voters who probably are looking for a positive reason to cave into Project Fear without feeling cowardly, and the prospect of a significantly reformed relationship might do it for them.

Second, it’s always possible that there are millions of shy remainers out there who are yet to speak. People who don’t share the Brexiteer’s obsession with Europe, see free movement as a convenience, and can’t understand why we’d want to take the risk of leaving. Broadly speaking, a conservative frame of mind.

Yet conservatism ain’t what it used to be. There was a time when it represented a preference for stoically muddling through. But while that sentiment retains a large constituency, the number of voters who back Ukip, back no major party, don’t usually vote, vote Labour or Tory while quietly despising both, or who are just mad-as-hell-and-not-going-to- take-it-anymore is growing. They have been waiting for a chance to register their disgust with the direction of the country for a long time and may be judging that this is it. Absent of a positive, cohesive Remain camp to put them back on the straight and narrow, they may just seize the opportunity of a lifetime to send the elites a message.

That isn’t my reason for voting Brexit but it’s a sentiment that a lot of canvassers report from the campaign trail. And that anger, where it does exist, has only been stoked by Remain’s relentless negativity.

The real gamble taken in this referendum wasn’t economic but political. Cameron gambled that he could all at once trash the EU and praise it – offer us a vote on membership and threaten us with disorder if we voted the wrong way. He has played for high stakes. Genuine Europhiles must resent him for it.


Going to be an interesting last week.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Bla bla bla bla bla bla BLA

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[Bold Seagull]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...pe-that-i-fought-for-and-my-comrades-died-for

Don’t abandon the Europe that I fought for – and my comrades died for

It is helpful to be old, for in my lifetime I have seen world population increase threefold; a stable seasonal climate become wildly unstable with drought, forest fires and floods; the pollution by humanity of the planet’s earth, air and waters to a stage where all life is threatened; and violence become a permanent, continuous tragedy in a world of great uncertainty.

The only stable community in this universal upheaval has been the European Union, formed from the wreckage of a continent for which I and millions of others fought six years of war. I write as a former airman, having flown well over 2,000 hours against three despotic enemy nations. That victory for the democracies has given Europe 70 years of peace and security in a widely unstable world. The “leave” chancers are campaigning to abandon this steady progress, citing values false or irrelevant, while they have no plan of what to do after jumping ship.

If the nation should fall for this deceit I can only conclude that the lives of my comrades – Irish, Scots, Welsh and English – were lost in vain. They will be rattling their bones, wherever in the world they fell, at the loss of the beliefs for which they fought.

Britain in Europe will enhance progress to higher values in the greater world; Britain out means a return to the early-20th-century chaos of warring states against each other.

I am 96. I remember how far we have come. I know what we stand to lose.
Franklin Medhurst, DFC (RAF 1939-46)
Carlton, County Durham

Well said sir, and a fine, passionate post. Great respect for you.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Some 270 veterans from the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force have issued a last-ditch plea for comrades to register to vote to back Brexit.

Read more: http://www.wigantoday.net/cm/armed-...es-to-vote-for-brexit-1-7950366#ixzz4Bjsfq5kO

Well said gents, respect to all of you and any with a different opinion.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Do the Leaver's not trust the 462 members of the House of Commons who have declared themselves for Remain?