alfredmizen
Banned
- Mar 11, 2015
- 6,342
Oh no it wasn't , see my post 6455.
[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
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Baldseagull
Well-known member
Yeah, I have seen that. What you seem to be saying is that because rules have been bent in certain areas in the past, they would be bent to allow Turkey into the EU. I can understand your skepticism, but it really is a totally different thing to allow a new member in without completing the chapters and the agreement of all other members.
It will happen one day, but Turkey will have to make some big changes first, and they will take many years.
From today's FT (also reported on the BBC, and other "Pro-Remain" media outlets - will probably be ignored by Daily Mail and Torygraph...)
A fall in the level of immigration due to the Brexit vote could offer a small pay boost to native Britons in some low-paid jobs but this is likely to be offset by a far larger weakening of wage growth across the country, economists have predicted. Research by the Resolution Foundation has found that, while the boom in net migration during the past decade has had no impact on the wages of British-born workers overall, it has depressed earnings in some occupations, including cleaning, sales and security.
The Foundation’s report, published on Tuesday, analysed the impact of migration on the labour market between 2004 and 2014, during which the share of migrants in the population increased from 10 per cent to 16 per cent. The authors found that, over this period, the downward pressure in the employment rate for natives with the lowest levels of education was 0.16 per cent per year and 0.24 per cent for those with intermediate qualifications.
The supply of low-skilled workers from EU “accession” countries such as Poland and Latvia had helped drive down wages, with their average earnings at £8.33 per hour, £2.76 below that of natives. The Home Office had been striving to reduce net migration by two-thirds to under 100,000 ever since the Conservative-led coalition came to power in 2010. If the government is empowered to place restrictions on new EU migrants as a result of the Brexit vote, this goal would become more achievable. According to the most recent figures, 257,000 of the total 617,000 immigrants to the UK during the past year came from within the EU.
However, the report warned that an immediate post-Brexit wage boost was unlikely given that reducing migration to the tens of thousands would only increase the salaries of British workers in sectors most affected by migration by between 0.2 and 0.6 per cent within the next two years. These small increases would be dwarfed by the 2 per cent downgrade to average wage growth made by the Bank of England following the referendum result.
A fall in the level of immigration due to the Brexit vote could offer a small pay boost to native Britons in some low-paid jobs but this is likely to be offset by a far larger weakening of wage growth across the country, economists have predicted. Research by the Resolution Foundation has found that, while the boom in net migration during the past decade has had no impact on the wages of British-born workers overall, it has depressed earnings in some occupations, including cleaning, sales and security.
The Foundation’s report, published on Tuesday, analysed the impact of migration on the labour market between 2004 and 2014, during which the share of migrants in the population increased from 10 per cent to 16 per cent. The authors found that, over this period, the downward pressure in the employment rate for natives with the lowest levels of education was 0.16 per cent per year and 0.24 per cent for those with intermediate qualifications.
The supply of low-skilled workers from EU “accession” countries such as Poland and Latvia had helped drive down wages, with their average earnings at £8.33 per hour, £2.76 below that of natives. The Home Office had been striving to reduce net migration by two-thirds to under 100,000 ever since the Conservative-led coalition came to power in 2010. If the government is empowered to place restrictions on new EU migrants as a result of the Brexit vote, this goal would become more achievable. According to the most recent figures, 257,000 of the total 617,000 immigrants to the UK during the past year came from within the EU.
However, the report warned that an immediate post-Brexit wage boost was unlikely given that reducing migration to the tens of thousands would only increase the salaries of British workers in sectors most affected by migration by between 0.2 and 0.6 per cent within the next two years. These small increases would be dwarfed by the 2 per cent downgrade to average wage growth made by the Bank of England following the referendum result.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
The referendum was NOT about higher or lower wages.
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,641
The referendum was about different things for different people - some very different things for very different people.
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,641
It was on the front page of the Guardian.
GT49er
Well-known member
That in itself may be significant!
Also, the Resolution Foundation isn't entirely unbiased!
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,641
I didn't make any comment as to the validity of the article or its provenance. I'm sensible enough to make up my own mind.
yxee
Well-known member
Looking at wage growth in isolation is not particularly interesting. I'm more interested in real wage growth. If I earn less and stuff costs even less, then I'm happier.
So I am immediately sceptical about a study that does not control for this.
So I am immediately sceptical about a study that does not control for this.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
I agree with you. Hence, following the Brexit decision, "...Kallum Pickering, a senior economist at Berenberg (World's second oldest bank) said that... 'The sluggish growth in nominal wages will probably slow sharply, reflecting weaker labour demand and a reluctance of employees to bargain hard. With inflation rising to at least 2 per cent... real wages are likely to fall during 2017." The Times this morning.
yxee
Well-known member
2% compared to what? We are doing a comparison aren't we? What would it have been without Brexit?
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
Given that the inflation pressures we are now facing are being driven by the much lower value of the pound, the figure would have been lower without the Brexit decision. At the same time, and for the same reason, weaker labour demand will reduce upward pressures on pay. Taken together the two will reduce real wages and tend to make you sadder rather than, to use your own word, happier.
melias shoes
Well-known member
- Oct 14, 2010
- 4,830
The word he used is Probably. Not will. Meanwhile. ....
http://news.sky.com/story/retailers-boosted-as-spending-rises-after-brexit-vote-10541496
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
Red herring. Of course he said 'probably' - he was forecasting the likelihood of a future development, not laying out a night-follows-day certainty.
Regarding your link, I have to assume that you only read the headline and intro.
portslade seagull
Well-known member
Think he makes most of his garbage up to justify what he says
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
If you think an old and respected bank's views on this subject are garbage then that's fine with me. What's your source for this view, or are you making it up?
Come on, you're not allowed to post anything not negative on here........
Alex Alex Dawson oo! oo!
Primary data is fact
Is anyone else on here actually working on Brexit; in particular, the interface with David Davies' Ministry on industry "consultations", RFI etc? We've been looking at aspects of the Life Sciences response and it all seems very odd to us; Client and Trade Association(s) really puzzled too. PM me if you'd prefer.
melias shoes
Well-known member
- Oct 14, 2010
- 4,830
