Far-Right National Front Stuns French Elite With EU 'Earthquake'

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

Buzzer said:
I don't think 99% of people across Europe know or care who these two candidates are or what they are contesting and I seriously doubt it made any difference to how people voted recently. Of course though there is still support for the EU but there are countries that are deeply sceptical and even anti-EU, Britain being a prime example but the Scandinavian countries also (there's a reason why neither Denmark nor Sweden are in the Euro). It's these countries that will use the tag of 'federalism' as a stick to beat the pro-EU lobby with because they know it goes down well with their target audience.

If either ultra-federalist go on to lead the EU and proceed with a federalist agenda then it's inconceivable that this will help persuade floating voters in the Euro-sceptic countries. And if Britain votes to leave the EU then it's very likely that Sweden and Denmark would follow suit with a referendum and the distinct possibility that they would leave also. And then there's Greece. The people there are barely containing their anger at the austerity measure imposed by Merkel. I do wonder if they had a referendum how it would go. If Britain leaves the EU it could cause a domino effect and your European dream could be over.

You might not be unduly worried. Francois Hollande is.

But this is the way it has been going, quite overtly, for some time now; "ever closer union" is the phrase I believe. Federalism will not come as as suprise to most people as it is no secret....which is what your post seems to imply?

And I have discussed Greece with you before; the country has repeatedly voted in a government which is pro the EU bail out. I am not suggesting there is no opposition; more that the opposition is loud but not significant.

The way I see it is that the EU has gone through it's most serious challenge in the past 5 years with the back drop of the recession and it is coming out of the otherside now still reasonably intact and even closer in some terms. There are a lot of 'ifs' in your reply; time will tell but I see no evidence to significantly worry me at present.

beorhthelm · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
But the recent elections have shown their is still support for the EU and the overt 'ever closer' direction is is going which is what these two people support. The has been a protest vote but if my 129 figure is correct this is safely under 20% of the seats available and I always expect,

despite all the commentry and broader polls (ie offering more specific options than vote a candidate/party) suggesting Europeans as a whole are against closer union, and an increasing "protest vote" outright against the EU, you think this vote is an endorsement? let hope the leaders of the moderate EU supports dont have your myopic view and ignore the loud dissent. reform is needed, reform is being called for. without reform, the whole project might fail.

martyn20 · May 27, 2014

Irish_Seagull said:
I'd happily vote front national or any other party that is anti war or pro democracy ,liberty.

I couldn't vote labour,lib dems or Tories. they target the vast uninformed, elderly or apathetic dunces that the uk is sadly famed for these days

To be a fan of any of the big three uk parties you have to as ignorant as **** on one level or another

Two million deaths in ten years is ok, but you say the N word or declare your love for your country

But the national front in France would happily wipe out all immigrants in their country if they got their way, is that not a racial war of sorts?

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

Stumpy Tim said:
There's a difference between disagreeing with the EU and voting National Front.

Agree. The former is a bit daft, a phase people will probably grow out of, but the latter is pure ignorance.

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

beorhthelm said:
despite all the commentry and broader polls (ie offering more specific options than vote a candidate/party) suggesting Europeans as a whole are against closer union, and an increasing "protest vote" outright against the EU, you think this vote is an endorsement? let hope the leaders of the moderate EU supports dont have your myopic view and ignore the loud dissent. reform is needed, reform is being called for. without reform, the whole project might fail.

I love your thinking. Look, in the election that really mattered, i.e. the real one and not a 'broad poll', the protest vote is safely under 20%. You can say what you like about the commentators you read, the polls you viewed, but the bottom line is that the REAL election threw up only minority support. I'm not sure what else I can say if you cannot understand that given the real election has just happened we are currently beyond polling and predictions.

martyn20 · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
I love your thinking. Look, in the election that really mattered, i.e. the real one and not a 'broad poll', the protest vote is safely under 20%. You can say what you like about the commentators you read, the polls you viewed, but the bottom line is that the REAL election threw up only minority support. I'm not sure what else I can say if you cannot understand that given the real election has just happened we are currently beyond polling and predictions.

Of course that percentage is different if you just consider the UK vote.

Green Cross Code Man · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
Agree. The former is a bit daft, a phase people will probably grow out of, but the latter is pure ignorance.

Age about the latter but your first point? Rather smug and superior. Reminds me of....

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

Green Cross Code Man said:
Age about the latter but your first point? Rather smug and superior. Reminds me of....

It was a joke.

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

martyn20 said:
Of course that percentage is different if you just consider the UK vote.

Of course it is. Ditto France. But the EU is made up of 28 member states. I'm not sure of your point??

martyn20 · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
Of course it is. Ditto France. But the EU is made up of 28 member states. I'm not sure of your point??

While this vote was for the EU parliament you cannot ignore the way particular single countries voted specially if it happens to be your own country. The 'small protest vote' across the EU actually won the election in the UK. If a country decides it's had enough there is nothing the EU parliament can do to keep them within the fold so how one country in particular voted could be vital to the future.
The under 20% protest vote across the EU seems small but if the UK, France and Denmark should decide to leave the EU that 20% becomes the whole ball game.

beorhthelm · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
I love your thinking. Look, in the election that really mattered, i.e. the real one and not a 'broad poll', the protest vote is safely under 20%. You can say what you like about the commentators you read, the polls you viewed, but the bottom line is that the REAL election threw up only minority support. I'm not sure what else I can say if you cannot understand that given the real election has just happened we are currently beyond polling and predictions.

thats 20% support for exit or hard line against EU. what about the middle ground, those supporting EU but want less, stay where it is or reform in general. please highlight where you believe these view are being expressed in the other 80% - because those are the views of the majority. You do recognise and accept that this isnt about simple all in/all out, right? and anyway if even Germans polled 7% for an anti-EU group, up from negligible afaik, then somethings changing.

Buzzer · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
But this is the way it has been going, quite overtly, for some time now; "ever closer union" is the phrase I believe. Federalism will not come as as suprise to most people as it is no secret....which is what your post seems to imply?

And I have discussed Greece with you before; the country has repeatedly voted in a government which is pro the EU bail out. I am not suggesting there is no opposition; more that the opposition is loud but not significant.

The way I see it is that the EU has gone through it's most serious challenge in the past 5 years with the back drop of the recession and it is coming out of the otherside now still reasonably intact and even closer in some terms. There are a lot of 'ifs' in your reply; time will tell but I see no evidence to significantly worry me at present.

I don't think you're getting my point. I'm sure in the likes of Luxembourg, Holland and Germany the EU dream is alive and well and federalism is still accepted as part of the great journey towards political union It's the countries with a traditionally euro-sceptic base (Britain, Denmark, Sweden) where the attitude that all is well and let's carry on blindly with closer political union will act towards strengthening the euro-sceptical attitude. It's us in the UK especially where we are extremely anti-federalist and even the pro-EU camp balk at promoting federalism, instead side-stepping that issue and bigging up anything but that, where it will go down worst.

There's no ifs or buts about us having a referendum now, it will happen. Bear in mind that the UK along with France and Germany are the big players in Europe. The euro-sceptic element is as solid, if not more so than the pro-EU side with the rest being floating voters. Do you honestly think that a clearly elitist EU that refuses to reform despite this huge protest vote across the whole of Europe, that refuses to deal with or even acknowledge the endemic corruption, with a platform of ever closer political and financial union is a vote winner for those don't knows in the UK?

And do you not think that as much as you say that a no vote would be bad for Britain, it would also be disastrous for the EU? And to add to that you've now got a very sizeable part of France saying no to the European dream that Gaulle, D'Estaing, Pompidou and Mitterand worked so hard to build. So we have one of the 3 main players seriously threatening to leave and one of the other two (a founding member and co-visionary no less) starting to wobble and you don't have any significant worries? No need for any major reforms?

I do hope the rest of the pro side have your attitude because I really, really want the UK out of the EU.

Buzzer · May 27, 2014

With regards to Greece, the socialist PASOK who helped the present government push through the austerity measures in 2012 have seen their support collapse (at Lib Dem levels) since and all the remaining left-leaning parties have seen their support rise, are firmly anti-austerity as well as being a lot more left wing. The far-right Golden Dawn party are also anti-austerity and they had an important 10% at the Euro Elections. If the Euro elections are a barometer of what the Greeks think of these austerity measures then you need to revise your opinion of the anti-austerity vote being insignificant. They're now the vast majority.

Green Cross Code Man · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
It was a joke.

Fair enough!

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

Buzzer said:
you've now got a very sizeable part of France saying no to the European dream that Gaulle, D'Estaing, Pompidou and Mitterand worked so hard to build. So we have one of the 3 main players seriously threatening to leave and one of the other two (a founding member and co-visionary no less) starting to wobble and you don't have any significant worries? No need for any major reforms?

No. I am not worried at the moment. Whilst the FN came top there was still 10% more French parties who voted for other parties alligned to the principle of the EU. If I start to see widespread road-maps and blue prints for withdrawal then I will worry. I have been told the EU is about to collapse for as long as I can remember; even more so during the recession. But whilst not perfect it's still here, still getting broad support across the 28 member states and still doing good in many many areas.

Click to expand...

Herr Tubthumper · May 27, 2014

Buzzer said:
I do hope the rest of the pro side have your attitude because I really, really want the UK out of the EU.

And as I would like the UK to remain a partner I guess we will not have much agreement on this.

seagullsovergrimsby · May 27, 2014

Herr Tubthumper said:
He's a pretty weak negotiator so dont expect anything; Merkel has him in her top-pocket. Maybe he could hand out another survey?

Merkel would devour Cameron for breakfast , she enjoys a full english.

simmo · May 27, 2014

Buzzer said:
There's no ifs or buts about us having a referendum now, it will happen. Bear in mind that the UK along with France and Germany are the big players in Europe. The euro-sceptic element is as solid, if not more so than the pro-EU side with the rest being floating voters. Do you honestly think that a clearly elitist EU that refuses to reform despite this huge protest vote across the whole of Europe, that refuses to deal with or even acknowledge the endemic corruption, with a platform of ever closer political and financial union is a vote winner for those don't knows in the UK?

And do you not think that as much as you say that a no vote would be bad for Britain, it would also be disastrous for the EU?

Indeed, the vote actually should alert those in Brussels/Strasbourg as to what may happen. Sometime soon the UK will have a referendum and I do believe if it were held now, the UK would vote to leave (I think these Euro results and in particular the Lib Dem vote show that). It would be monumental for the EU if we left. We are one of the big three (GDP, population, overall contributions whichever way you look at it) and if we decided to say bye, as you alluded to earlier this could set a domino effect with non Euro members and those seriously effected by austerity measures within the Eurozone urgently reviewing their position.

If the UK left the EU, as an entity it may survive. If 3/4 countries leave in a short space of time including the UK, the EU could crumble. It would stumble from one crisis to another as countries disengage from the EU and investors would have no confidence in the Eurozone region as a whole, due to a fluid insecure political and economic situation.

On a relevant and related point to those terrified by the prospect of us leaving. We were the only ones of the big three whom opted out of the Euro and at the time we were told by some what a disaster that would be.

brighton bluenose · May 27, 2014

martyn20 said:
But the national front in France would happily wipe out all immigrants in their country if they got their way, is that not a racial war of sorts?

What do you actually mean by 'wipe out all immigrants' ?!
And perhaps you could quote the FN policy document on this - assuming, of course, that you are fluently bilingual or have read a properly translated copy of their manifesto?!

daveinprague · May 27, 2014

brighton bluenose said:
What do you actually mean by 'wipe out all immigrants' ?!
And perhaps you could quote the FN policy document on this - assuming, of course, that you are fluently bilingual or have read a properly translated copy of their manifesto?!

I think he may mean, things like when the former leader, who most likely has some influence over his daughter, says the sort of things he said earlier in the week.

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